Since the dawn of betting, many players have dreamed of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for the two-game NFL Christmas slate.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll operate with a similar goal here.
Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Christmas parlay for Week 17 on Caesars.
Christmas NFL Parlay – Wednesday Football
- Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
- Chiefs vs. Steelers Under 44 (-110)
- Ravens vs. Texans Over 46.5 (-118)
Parlay Odds: +581 | $10 Bet Wins $58.10
Chiefs -2.5 (-115)
Kansas City has finally started putting teams away, beating the Browns by 14 in Week 15, and the Texans by eight last week.
That's a step in the right direction, with the offense finally looking capable of keeping Patrick Mahomes clean and scoring consistently. After taking 13 sacks combined over the previous three weeks, he went down just once in the last two games.
Pittsburgh ranks just 25th in adjusted sack rate, so that's unlikely to change here. The offense has also been broken without George Pickens, leading to just 30 total points over the last two games.
FanDuel is the last book to offer this line inside the key number of three, and if that's gone I'd buy the extra half-point to get it back.
I don't expect this to be that close, but Pickens is questionable and might return in time to make this a bit tighter.
Chiefs-Steelers Under 44 (-110)
The Steelers offense matches up poorly here. They rely heavily on the run, with a bottom-six Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE). Kansas City is somewhat of a pass funnel, with a top-10 DVOA against the run.
If Pittsburgh can't push the scoring here, it's hard to see the Chiefs handling it themselves. They've topped 30 points just twice all season and both of those came in games that the opponent kept within one score.
While I expect Kansas City to find success on offense, Pittsburgh is still a top-10 overall defense.
On top of that, both teams rank inside of the top 10 in time of possession, so there will be about three minutes of game time "lost" compared to their typical games.
Ravens-Texans Over 46.5 (-110)
It's hard to know what to make of the Texans offense.
On the one hand, everybody throws against the Ravens, who have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league and by far the highest PROE against.
However, the Texans lost Tank Dell last week, leaving just Nico Collins among their original top three wide receivers. C.J. Stroud had a rough go of it through the air without Dell last week, with Houston scoring just 19 points.
Still, an in-game injury is a bit different than knowing you'll be without key pieces. While it's a short week, the Texans have some time to prepare other players to fill in for their passing attack.
On the Baltimore side, it has topped 30 points in three of its past four games, including against tough defenses like the Steelers and Chargers. The Texans defense is on par with those teams (if not better), but I'm not sure it matters when you have both Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
That means we should clear this over as long as the Houston offense can keep pace, which I expect them to do.
We're getting a worse line at FanDuel relative to the rest of the market, but I'm more confident in this pick than the others that are best at FanDuel. Since we can't do "cross-book" parlays, that will have to do.
This leads us to a lighter-than-usual +513 parlay for Christmas, but still one that qualifies for FanDuel's no-sweat Parlay Plus token for Christmas Day.
Parlay Odds: +581 | $10 Bet Wins $58.10
