Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays. So, we have a Bills vs. Chiefs parlay for the AFC Championship game featuring the Bills at the Chiefs at DraftKings.
Bills vs. Chiefs Parlay Picks
- Under 48.5
- Chiefs -1.5
- Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer
Full AFC Championship SGP Odds: +950 | $10 Bet Wins $95.00
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. The complex correlations among the legs make fair odds nearly impossible to calculate. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
You could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit twice during the regular season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
So, here's what I'm targeting for my AFC Championship SGP.
Under 48.5 (-114)
I broke down the case for the under in my Bills-Chiefs game preview. The short version: This is a very different Chiefs team than the one that's engaged in so many shootouts with the Bills in the past; K.C. is bereft of many of the weapons that made those big scores possible.
Not only do we know that, but the Chiefs do too. Their best shot is to slow the game down, keep Josh Allen off the field and be in a position to win late if the game stays close.
While I like this pick on its own, I especially like it when paired with the Chiefs spread since I make them considerably more likely to cover in a low-scoring game than a high-scoring one.
Chiefs -1.5 (-112)
Unlike the total, this isn't a pick I would make independently of the parlay, but it correlated pretty nicely with the under.
The Chiefs have eliminated the Bills from the playoffs in three of the past four seasons (they didn't meet in the other year), and the 1.5-point spread means this is almost equivalent to a moneyline bet.
If you're concerned about the possibility of a one-point Chiefs win, switching to their moneyline only costs another 15 cents of juice. I'm fine with taking my chances — we're swinging big with these parlays anyway — but adapt as necessary for your personal risk tolerance.
Josh Allen Anytime TD (-115)
One of the great things about having the Chiefs' point spread and the under in this parlay is the massive effective odds we can get by adding any Bills touchdown scorer prop.
This means the obvious answer is Josh Allen, who our prop projections give about a 44% chance of picking up a rushing (or receiving) touchdown on Sunday night.
That's not enough to justify the -115 line at FanDuel. However, including this pick takes the overall parlay odds from +230 to +816, nearly quadrupling the payout.
That means Allen only needs a bit more than a 25% chance of finding the end zone (in a game that stays under and the Chiefs cover) for this addition to be worth it.
I like those odds.
Full AFC Championship SGP Odds: +816 | $10 Bet Wins $81.60
