Since the dawn of gambling, the dream has been to turn a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., all offer the same appeal.
Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can add same-game parlays. So, we have NFL parlay picks for the Sunday Divisional Round games featuring the Rams and Eagles, and Bills and Ravens.
NFL Parlay Picks: Rams vs. Eagles, Bills vs. Ravens
- Rams +6.5
- DeVonta Smith Anytime TD Scorer
- Bills-Ravens Over 51.5
Full Sunday Divisional Round Parlay Odds: +1169 | $10 Bet Wins $116.90
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that. The complex correlations among the legs make fair odds nearly impossible to calculate. However, parlays are fun. Much like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
You could make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit twice during the regular season, we're looking for bigger payouts.
So, here's what I'm targeting for my Sunday Divisional Round parlay.
Rams +6.5
My favorite pick for the Divisional Round on Sunday is the Rams against the spread.
Los Angeles has won six straight (not counting a meaningless Week 18 game in which it rested starters) and has consistently been one of the NFL's best teams at full strength.
The Rams are coming in relatively fresh due to getting rest in Week 18 and a relatively noncompetitive Wild Card win over the Vikings. The Eagles were also able to coast at the end of the season, but many of the Rams' key starters missed chunks of time earlier in the year and are probably healthier at this point.
While this one isn't quite a Luck Rankings pick, Philly also ranked 11 spots higher at No. 4 in our end-of-season Luck Rankings than the Rams, another data point favorable to L.A.
Perhaps most importantly, this line is up to +6.5, a fairly large edge around the key number of six. Turning a would-be push into a win if the Eagles win by exactly six is pretty valuable.
DeVonta Smith Anytime TD Scorer
I always like taking anytime TDs from players on the opposite team I pick the spread on when building these parlays since it typically results in a much better price on the overall line.
It's not like we need the Rams to shut out the Eagles to cover the spread — in fact, L.A.'s best path to keeping it close is probably a higher-scoring affair. That means there's no significant negative correlation between these picks, but we're getting a price that suggests there is.
It also helps that Smith is a strong value in the absolute sense. Our Pro Projections have his median touchdowns at 0.4, and the Rams allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to the position on the season.
Plus, our own Nick Giffen logged this bet in the Action Network App already, which makes me feel even better about its chances.
Over 51.5
I went back and forth on the total for this game a bit this week — and then the number dropped a full point to 51.5.
That pushed me over the edge, considering these teams both averaged over 30 points per game this season, despite being involved in their fair share of blowouts, which is unlikely to happen here.
Buffalo has been extremely aggressive when facing other strong offenses this season, which should continue this week as a 1.5-point underdog. The Bills should also find success against a weak Ravens pass defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game.
On the Ravens' side, they've got Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. That's typically enough in any matchup, and they put up 35 points on Buffalo earlier this season.
Full Sunday Divisional Round Parlay Odds: +1169 | $10 Bet Wins $116.90
