I've been inspired by our touchdown guru Gilles Gallant and have come up with an NFL parlay for the Saturday tripleheader as part of Week 17.
Using Sean Koerner's projections, I've identified one player from each game on Saturday that has escalator potential. I'm not going too crazy with these and have identified three players whose props seem reachable and have edges on their overs according to Koerner's data.
Now, as our experts will tell you, betting parlays aren't a path toward positive long-term return on investment, so please bet responsibly.
NFL Parlay Picks: Saturday Week 17
- Justin Herbert 25+ Rushing Yards (+210)
- Javonte Williams 25+ Receiving Yards (+200)
- James Conner 70+ Rushing Yards (+140)
Parlay Odds: +2178 at DraftKings
Odds listed above are as of 8 p.m. ET on Friday night.
Chargers vs. Patriots
Justin Herbert 25+ Rushing Yards (+210)
Justin Herbert’s mobility is what makes him one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. He moves around well in the pocket and knows when to get out of there. Herbert has only thrown three interceptions this season and is content to scramble when necessary instead of a potentially costly turnover.
Herbert has gone over this line in four of the Chargers’ last seven games. He has done so against two top-10 pass rushes, according to ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate, which the Patriots are not. New England ranks 18th, though, which is better than the Ravens (27th) and Bengals (21st), which are two teams Herbert hit this total on.
Sean Koerner has Herbert projected for 16 rushing yards, but he tends to go over this total if he reaches double-digits. Herbert has had more than 25 rushing yards five times this season, but he’s registered between 10-24 just twice.
Broncos vs. Bengals
Javonte Williams 25+ Receiving Yards (+200)
Jaleel McLaughlin is set to return this week for the Broncos, which creates an even more crowded backfield. Both McLaughlin and Audric Estime have played well in the run game of late.
Meanwhile, Williams has found his spot as the pass-catching back. He had 11 targets last week and is averaging more than three per game this season.
Williams has reached 25 receiving yards in six of 15 games this season, and this could be a good matchup to do it again. Broncos-Bengals has the second-highest total of the week at 50, and Cincinnati’s defense has been awful all season.
Also, the Bengals defense ranks dead last in DVOA against running backs in the passing game.
Denver is a three-point underdog and will have to keep up with the Bengals offense. I’d expect Williams to be involved in the passing game, and the +200 price on reaching 25 receiving yards is decent.
Sean Koerner has him pegged for 17 but, like Herbert, he tends to go big or go home. Williams has registered between 9-24 receiving yards twice this season while getting 25 or more six times.
Cardinals vs. Rams
James Conner 70+ Rushing Yards (+140)
The Rams defense has been playing better of late, but it still only ranks 17th in Weighted DVOA compared to its season-long ranking of 20th. This is still a very average unit.
Los Angeles’ defense is 20th in Rush DVOA and has already watched Conner run wild once this season. When these teams met back in Week 2, the veteran back had 21 carries for 122 yards and a touchdown.
Also, workload will not be an issue for Conner, who has gotten at least 15 carries in seven of the Cardinals’ last nine games and in 11 games on the season. As long as the game is relatively close and the Rams don’t do what the Cardinals did to them in Week 2, Conner will get the necessary touches to hit this total.
Conner has hit this plateau in each of the Cardinals’ last three games, and Sean Koerner projects him for 64 rushing yards against Los Angeles.
