Since gambling has existed, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. With two games tonight, though, we have a cross-game NFL parlay for Monday Night Football.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 challenge," which hit in Week 7, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner on each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. This week, we'll be making picks from both Monday Night Football games.
NFL Parlay for Monday Night Football
- Bucs-Ravens Over 49.5 (-112)
- Rachaad White Under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-135)
- Chargers-Cardinals Under 44 (-108)
- James Conner Anytime TD (-110)
Parlay Odds: +1507 | $10 Bet Wins $150.7
While I typically prefer to go with unders in primetime games, this one is too good to pass up. Both teams are top-10 units in offensive DVOA, while neither defense can claim that distinction.
The Ravens have scored at least 28 points in four straight games, with just one failing to go over 50. That was against a Bills offense that put up just 10 points and struggled to get anything going.
That's unlikely to be an issue this week for the Bucs, who have scored 114 points over the last three games.
Tampa Bay is also beat up on defense, with top corner Jamel Dean ruled out and run-stopping nose tackle Vita Vea listed as questionable (among a laundry list of injuries).
Despite a fairly heavy workload, White has cleared this line in two of his five healthy games this season. Both were against the below-average run defenses of the Falcons and Eagles.
The Ravens are a much tougher unit, ranking fourth in the NFL against the run. I expect the Bucs to skew extremely pass heavy here; they're better at doing it, and it's the relative weakness of the Ravens. Plus, the game flow (Baltimore is favored by 3.5) should keep Tampa Bay throwing.
On top of that, White now has plenty of competition in the Bucs backfield. Theoretical third-stringer Sean Tucker exploded for 136 yards on 14 carries last week, and Bucky Irving remains involved.
With White working back from an injury, it would make sense to feature him more in the passing game — which obviously limits his rushing yardage upside.
Moving over to the latter game of the evening, we have the league's best scoring defense taking on an explosive offense of the Cardinals.
The market has largely split the difference, with a middling total of 44. I still like the under, though, and there are a few reasons why.
The Chargers offense is built around the run, but Arizona is an above-average run defense. The Cardinals are terrible against the pass, but the Chargers can't do that anyway. If Los Angeles can't get anything going offensively, Arizona can then slow things down and attack on the ground — which is also their relative weakness offensively.
Plus, for the context of this parlay, we can get far better odds by adding a positive offensive prop in a game in which we're taking the under.
Since part of the logic on the under is that Arizona will control the game on the ground, it only makes sense to target James Conner.
Conner has been a borderline bell cow this year, with top-10 rates in total carries and carry share on the season. He's found the end zone in every Cardinals game in which they either won or lost by one score or less.
With Arizona as just two-point underdogs, that feels like a fairly likely game flow here. Plus, by including that with the under it juices this SGP to +370, and the total odds across both games to +1507.
Parlay Odds: +1507 | $10 Bet Wins $150.7
