Since the dawn of betting, many players have dreamed of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for the Week 18 Saturday doubleheader.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll operate with a similar goal.
Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my NFL Saturday parlay for Week 18 on BetMGM.
Saturday NFL Parlay Week 18
- Ravens First Quarter Spread -6 (+100)
- Ravens-Browns Under 41.5 (-110)
- Bengals Moneyline (-125)
- Calvin Austin Anytime TD (+350)
Parlay Odds: +3310 | $10 Bet Wins $331
Ravens First Quarter Spread -6 (+100)
BetMGM is one of the only books offering a first-quarter market and allowing it as part of parlays, which is one of the reasons we're building our Week 18 picks there.
This is a must-win game for the Ravens, who can clinch the AFC North and a home playoff game with a win. They're also favored by 20 against the tanking Browns and probably want to give their starters a breather.
Of course, the Ravens won't rest their starters in the first quarter. I expect Baltimore to come out firing on all cylinders before easing up down the stretch.
The first-half point spread of -10.5 is also interesting, but it's -110 odds rather than the even money on the first-quarter line.
Ravens-Browns Under 41.5 (-110)
In three games with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the Browns have scored 16 points. Not per game, mind you. That's 16 points combined.
Their last passing touchdown came in Week 14 with Jameis Winston at quarterback. All of their touchdowns since then have been produced by running back Jerome Ford, who's on the pessimistic side of questionable this week.
They could easily be held to single digits against Baltimore, especially with the Ravens motivated to win.
For the total to go over, that would mean a score somewhere in the 30s for the Ravens. I don't see Baltimore pushing the pace enough down the stretch in a blowout.
Bengals Moneyline (-125)
Cincinnati is on a four-game winning streak and comes into Week 18 needing a win to keep its meager playoff hopes alive.
That's a stark contrast to the Steelers, who (assuming a Ravens win) will be the fifth or sixth seed in the AFC no matter how this game goes.
My guess is that Pittsburgh will focus more on keeping key players healthy for a playoff run than winning the game. Because of that, I like the the Bengals moneyline.
Calvin Austin Anytime Touchdown (+350)
While I expect the Bengals to win, that doesn't mean Pittsburgh will totally fall flat offensively. The Bengals defense is bad, especially against the pass, ranking 27th in DVOA.
Calvin Austin has taken an expanded role in the Steelers' passing attack in the season's final stretch, seeing at least five targets over the last three games. He found the end zone in the previous meeting despite seeing just two targets; he should have a better role this time around.
This is the top projected edge at BetMGM in our Anytime Touchdown Projections, and we're getting an even better effective price by pairing it with the Bengals moneyline.
That brings the final odds on the parlay north of 30-to-1 at +3310.
Parlay Odds: +3310 | $10 Bet Wins $331
