Since the dawn of betting, the dream of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot has been the dream of many players. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for the 3 Thanksgiving Day games.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10 this season, we'll be operating with a similar goal here.
With three games on Thanksgiving, I'll be building three individual SGPs — which of course can be combined into one big parlay. I'll personally be betting them all separately, with a small sprinkle on the full-slate super parlay.
NFL Parlay for Thanksgiving
Lions vs. Bears
- Lions -9.5 (-110)
- Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+230)
Cowboys vs. Giants
- Under 37.5 (-112)
- Cooper Rush Under 20.5 Completions (+120)
Dolphins vs. Packers
- Under 47.5 (-108)
Full Thanksgiving Parlay Odds: +3588 | $10 Bet Wins $358.80
Lions vs. Bears Parlay
Leg 1: Lions -9.5 (-110)
The 10-1 Detroit Lions have outscored their opponents 360 to 183 this season. That’s good for a net differential of a ridiculous 177 points, or about 16 points per game. Now they’re home favorites of just 9.5 against the Chicago Bears, losers of six straight after starting the season hot.
It’s been pretty clear this year that Detroit isn’t playing to protect leads, with three wins of at least 38 points this season. Five of their last seven games have been double-digit wins, with only the 9-2 Vikings and 7-5 Texans making it closer than that.
All of which made me very happy to see the spread drop to 9.5 points on DraftKings for this one. The Lions should roll here, but I love getting this one in the single digits. I’d take -10 for lower juice, but shop for -9.5 if possible.
Leg 2: Sam LaPorta Anytime TD (+230)
The one player who's been mostly left out of the Lions offensive explosion this season is Sam LaPorta. After an excellent rookie season, the second-year man has been mostly quiet this season.
He has plenty of target competition in Detroit, plus the Lions rank 27th in total pass attempts per game.
Most of that target competition is from Amon-Ra St. Brown, who shares a similar route tree as LaPorta. Part of the logic on this pick is that St. Brown is banged up. He's officially listed as questionable and will almost certainly play, but it would make sense to ease off the Sun God especially if the game is out of hand.
Plus, Detroit would probably like to get LaPorta going at some point before the playoffs, and Chicago has been vulnerable against tight ends. That makes this a solid pick this week, and brings the Lions-Bears SGP to total odds of +460.
Cowboys vs. Giants Parlay
Leg 3: Under 37.5 (-112)
Before both teams lost (either through injury or by choice) their starting quarterbacks, this game has a total of around 45. Now it’s down all the way to 37.5, as we have Cooper Rush of the Cowboys taking on Tommy DeVito of the Giants.
We’ve got a small sample size on both players this year, with this being the third start for Rush and second for DeVito. Rush has led the Cowboys to 44 points in his two starts, but 34 of those came against the Commanders.
For all the Giants' faults, they’re a better overall defense than Washington by DVOA. They also have the best pass rush by Adjusted Sack Rate in the league. That’s a problem for Rush, who took five sacks against the Texans in his first start.
DeVito was bad last week, taking four sacks and throwing for under 200 yards as the Giants lost 7-30 to the Bucs. Dallas has Micah Parsons back on defense and should give DeVito similar problems here.
The best path for each team to score is probably the ground game, which is led by relatively unexplosive backs Rico Dowdle and Tyrone Tracy. Plus, both teams will likely be without at least one offensive line starter.
Thus, I’m taking the under 37.5, with our next pick also banking on both team's leaning on their rushing attack.
Leg 4: Cooper Rush Under 20.5 Completions (+115)
Our NFL Props Tool has a strong value on the under on Rush's completions, with his median projection at 18.5. This also aligns very well with our under pick, which is predicated on both team's leaning more heavily on their ground game.
Rush has cleared this line in both of his starts with the Cowboys, but under very different circumstances. Dallas was an underdog in both contests, with one of the games a blowout loss.
They're slight favorites here against the Giants, which should decrease their pass rate. There's also a risk that Dallas benches Rush in favor of Trey Lance, whom they spent a fourth-round pick to acquire. Even if Lance doesn't take over, he could have designed packages that also limit Rush's throw rate.
Getting this at plus money also juices the SGP nicely, with the Cowboys-Giants portion coming to +242.
Dolphins vs. Packers Parlay
Leg 5: Under 47.5 (-108)
The Packers have been playing their typical ball-control football this season. They rank 30th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 29th in pace of play, with occasional deep shots mixed in when opposing defenses get complacent.
Quarterback Jordan Love is tied for the second-deepest average depth of target (aDOT) in the NFL this season, keeping Green Bay in the top 10 in scoring despite its pace of play. The Packers have also found a run game, with Josh Jacobs third in the NFL in rushing yards. The bulk of their success should come on the ground, with Miami ranking 26th in DVOA against the run.
On the Miami side of the ball, the offense is predicated on Tua Tagovailoa getting the ball out quick. Roughly 50% of his targets since coming back have been to backs and tight ends, as Miami dinks and dunks its way down the field.
That should mean some extended drives for the Dolphins, with the key to their game being turning those drives into touchdowns instead of field goals. They've been able to do that on their current win streak, averaging more than 30 points per game.
However, those games all came against bottom-10 defenses by DVOA. Two were at home in Miami, and one was in Los Angeles. This game is at Lambeau, where temperatures are expected to be below freezing, with wind chill around 20 degrees.
Given Tagovailoa's struggles in cold weather historically, that's a bad sign for the Dolphins' offensive expectation.
No props from me on this one, as we're not showing a ton of value on any specific leg. Mixing the total from this game in with the other SGPs brings the total offs to +3588 though — which is more than enough for me.
Full Thanksgiving Parlay Odds: +3588 | $10 Bet Wins $358.80
