Betting an NFL parlay via Anytime Touchdown Scorers is incredibly fun, even if they’re mostly a losing proposition that will drain your bankroll if you’re not careful. Most sportsbooks tend to clean up on this type of bet, so how do we scratch the “parlay itch” without overextending ourselves financially?
Allow me to introduce “The 180 Challenge.” Here’s how it works.
Every week, I'll be betting a 3-leg NFLAnytime TD parlay that equates to +1800 or more. $10 per parlay ticket, $180 total for the season.
The goal is to win as much as possible. But the safety net is, you only need to hit one parlay all season to make your money back. If you go 0-18 (which is unfortunate), the positive spin is it's only $180.
This way, we can still participate with fun touchdown parlays while managing our bankroll and not going overboard on bad spending habits. We hit our first 22-1 parlay of the season back in Week 6, and then followed that up with another 20-1 winner in Week 10. That means we’re playing with house money the rest of the season, for those following along.
Disclaimer: 18-1 parlays have less than 5% chance of hitting, and that percentage only shrinks as you increase the parlay odds. Keep your expectations in check and bet on these for recreation.
Continue below for my NFL parlay picks for Week 12.
NFL Parlay Week 12
- Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer (+165)
- D.J. Moore Anytime TD Scorer (+215)
- DK Metcalf Anytime TD Scorer (+160)
Parlay Odds: +2010 (DraftKings)
Buccaneers vs. Giants Parlay Pick: Mike Evans
Mike Evans is finally back in the lineup for the Buccaneers after missing a handful of weeks due to injury.
Despite missing a decent chunk of time though, Evans has still managed to score six touchdowns on the season, which comes as no surprise, as he's scored a touchdown in over 60% if his career outings with Baker Mayfield at QB for Tampa Bay.
In Week 12, the Bucs will face a Giants defense that ranks 24th in defensive DVOA against the pass, and they rank last against opposing WR1s.
Don’t overthink it. Evans should be able to find the end zone this week.
Vikings vs. Bears Parlay Pick: DJ Moore
I fully acknowledge the fact that DJ Moore and the Bears offense have struggled this season, and the Vikings' defense is tough. But this may still be a sneaky spot to back Moore.
Moore's target rate tends to rise when the Bears' offense is blitzed, and the Vikings own the No. 1 blitz rate in the NFL entering this week.
The Vikings' defense also plays zone coverage at a very high rate, which also bodes well for Moore. He leads the Bears in both target share and touchdowns against zone defense.
I expect Moore to finally break out of the slump and find the end zone against Minnesota in Week 12.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks Parlay Pick: DK Metcalf
After missing some time due to injury, DK Metcalf finally returned for the Seahawks last week, and they wasted no time getting their top WR back involved, as he totaled nine targets in a 20-17 win over San Francisco.
Metcalf should see even more volume this week against the Cardinals. Arizona plays a lot of zone coverage, and that’s where he can shine.
Metcalf leads the Seahawks in yards per route run and aDOT against zone this season. Look for Metcalf to be featured heavily in Seattle's offense in Week 12.
