Since the dawn of betting, many players have dreamed of turning a tiny amount of money into a lot. Lotteries, slot machines, etc., they all offer the same appeal. Since the legalization of online sports betting, we can now add same-game parlays to that list. So, we have an NFL parlay for Saints vs. Packers on Monday Night Football.
NFL parlays aren't the smartest bets — I'll be the first to tell you that fair odds are nearly impossible to calculate, given the tangled web of correlation between each. They are fun, though — and just like lottery tickets, it's nice to dream every once in a while.
Of course, you could also make some "sensible" SGPs with alternate legs and try to cash a +200 ticket, but that's not what this article is about. Inspired by my colleague Gilles Gallant's "180 Challenge," which hit in Weeks 6 and 10, we'll operate with a similar goal here.
Of course, with primetime games on multiple days every week, we'll need a winner each day of the week, but we'll also have more chances to bring it home. Without further ado, here's what I'm targeting for my Monday Night Football parlay for Week 16 on DraftKings.
Saints vs. Packers NFL Parlay — Monday Night Football
- Over 42 (-108)
- Christian Watson Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Juwan Johnson Anytime TD (+650)
Parlay Odds: +3100 | $10 Bet Wins $310
Over 42 (-108)
I've been impressed by the Packers in recent weeks that I'm willing to pull the trigger on the over, despite the sad state of affairs in New Orleans.
We'll start with Green Bay. They've scored at least 40 points in four straight games, with three of those coming against top-11 defenses in the NFL by DVOA. This week, they face a Saints team that comes into the week ranked 20th, so this is a noticeable step down.
Green Bay is also projecting for one of the best offensive line matchups of the week, so they should be able to move the ball on the ground or through the air.
Thirty or so points feels like a safe target for Green Bay even without the Saints pushing them, meaning we'd only need a pair of touchdowns from New Orleans to go over the total.
While the Saints are without Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara, and Chris Olave, 12 or 13 points still isn't a big ask — especially against a Green Bay defense that's missing a starting safety and linebacker, with another safety and cornerback questionable.
I'm assuming the market is also adjusting for this game being played at Lambeau in December, but the weather isn't a huge concern. It's forecasted to be fairly mild, with NFL Weather Edge showing effectively no impact on scoring from the conditions.
Christian Watson Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Part of Green Bay getting healthy offensively means a crowded wide receiver room. Five receivers for Green Bay have target shares between 12% and 15%, including tight end Tucker Kraft.
That makes it hard for any one player to stand out, particularly considering the Packers rank 30th in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) on the season.
With Green Bay favored massively, the game script is unlikely to force the Packers to the air. Watson's massive average depth of target (aDOT) means he can get there on limited looks, but the odds are much lower than when he draws more targets.
This is the top-rated prop in our NFL Props Tool for the game, and as an added bonus, we get juicier odds by parlaying it with the over.
Juwan Johnson Anytime TD (+650)
If this game is going to go over, we will need somebody to score for the Saints.
My money is on Juwan Johnson.
Since the Saints lost Taysom Hill, Johnson has been one of their primary red-zone threats. He's scored in two of the last four games and seen a red-zone target in all four.
Logically, we'd expect rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler to be more likely to check down to his tight ends, and without Alvin Kamara soaking up short-area work, there's even more looks to go around.
It's obviously a bit of a long shot, but our anytime touchdown projections have this as the best edge in the touchdown market. It also brings the total parlay odds to a juicy +3100.
Parlay Odds: +3100 | $10 Bet Wins $310
