Straight up. Against the spread.
Whether you’re playing in your office’s (virtual) pool or in a higher-stakes contest, I’ve created pick ’em confidence ratings to help you make your picks each week — complete with a custom against the spread edge calculator.
These ratings are based on my NFL Power Ratings, which help power our PRO Projections. They account for various factors such as travel, injuries and any news that could impact betting odds.
Now let’s run through Week 13 pick ’em confidence ratings for straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) contests — note that these are based on initial projections as of mid-week, but I’ll update this story with my latest rankings on Saturday.
Jump to ATS Ratings
NFL Pick 'Em Rankings
These are for straight-up pick 'em pools.
| Conf | Team | Opp | Win Prob% |
|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | vs. DEN | 88% |
| 2 | Dolphins | vs. CIN | 84% |
| 3 | Seahawks | vs. NYG | 83% |
| T-4 | Vikings | vs. JAX | 80% |
| T-4 | Packers | vs. PHI | 80% |
| 6 | Steelers | vs. WAS | 79% |
| 7 | Raiders | @ NYJ | 77% |
| 8 | Ravens | vs. DAL | 76% |
| 9 | Titans | vs. CLE | 69% |
| 10 | Colts | @ HOU | 60% |
| T-11 | Bears | vs. DET | 59% |
| T-11 | Saints | @ ATL | 59% |
| 13 | Bills | @ SF | 56% |
| T-14 | Rams | @ ARI | 54% |
| T-14 | Patriots | @ LAC | 54% |
| T-16 | Cardinals | vs. LAR | 46% |
| T-16 | Chargers | vs. NE | 46% |
| 18 | 49ers | vs. BUF | 44% |
| T-19 | Lions | @ CHI | 41% |
| T-19 | Falcons | vs. NO | 41% |
| 21 | Texans | vs. IND | 40% |
| 22 | Browns | @ TEN | 31% |
| 23 | Cowboys | @ BAL | 24% |
| 24 | Jets | vs. LV | 23% |
| 25 | Football Team | @ PIT | 21% |
| T-26 | Jaguars | @ MIN | 20% |
| T-26 | Eagles | @ GB | 20% |
| 28 | Giants | @ SEA | 17% |
| 29 | Bengals | @ MIA | 16% |
| 30 | Broncos | @ KC | 12% |
Against the Spread Rankings
I'll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I've also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.
Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate.
About the Author
Sean is The Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics. He was named the No. 1 fantasy football draft ranker of 2019 by FantasyPros, where he's also finished as the top in-season ranker in three of the past five seasons
Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.
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