Pick 'em pool season is back! You can even play in our app now.
But if you're really serious about winning your pool, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings each week throughout the season.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 1 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than we'll highlight below.
NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my SU ratings for season-openers then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight Up Confidence Ratings
1. Eagles
Matchup: vs. Redskins
Confidence Rating: 78.3%
2. Seahawks
Matchup: vs. Bengals
Confidence Rating: 77%
3. Cowboys
Matchup: vs. Giants
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
4. Chargers
Matchup: vs. Colts
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
4. Patriots
Matchup: vs. Steelers
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
6. Saints
Matchup: vs. Texans
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
7. Ravens
Matchup: at Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
8. Browns
Matchup: vs. Titans
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
9. Vikings
Matchup: vs. Falcons
Confidence Rating: 62%
9. Jets
Matchup: vs. Bills
Confidence Rating: 62%
11. Bears
Matchup: vs. Packers
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
12. Chiefs
Matchup: at Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
13. 49ers
Matchup: at Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
13. Rams
Matchup: at Panthers
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
13. Lions
Matchup: at Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
13. Raiders
Matchup: vs. Broncos
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
17. Broncos
Matchup: at Raiders
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
17. Buccaneers
Matchup: vs. 49ers
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
17. Panthers
Matchup: vs. Rams
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
17. Cardinals
Matchup: vs. Lions
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
21. Jaguars
Matchup: vs. Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
22. Packers
Matchup: at Bears
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
23. Falcons
Matchup: at Vikings
Confidence Rating: 38%
23. Bills
Matchup: at Jets
Confidence Rating: 38%
25. Titans
Matchup: at Browns
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
26. Dolphins
Matchup: vs. Ravens
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
27. Texans
Matchup: at Saints
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
28. Colts
Matchup: at Chargers
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
28. Steelers
Matchup: at Patriots
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
30. Giants
Matchup: at Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
31. Bengals
Matchup: at Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 23%
32. Redskins
Matchup: at Eagles
Confidence Rating: 21.7%
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Panthers
Spread: +3 vs. Rams
T-2. Dolphins
Spread: +7 vs. Ravens
T-2. Cardinals
Spread: +2.5 vs. Lions
T-4. Titans
Spread: +5.5 at Browns
T-4. Texans
Spread: +7 at Saints
T-4. 49ers
Spread: +1 at Buccaneers
T-4. Raiders
Spread: +1 vs. Broncos
T-8. Jaguars
Spread: +3.5 vs. Chiefs
T-8. Bengals
Spread: +9.5 at Seahawks
T-10. Falcons
Spread: +4 at Vikings
T-10. Redskins
Spread: +9.5 at Eagles
T-10. Colts
Spread: +6.5 at Chargers
T-10. Jets
Spread: -3 vs. Bills
T-10. Cowboys
Spread: -7 vs. Giants
T-10. Patriots
Spread: -5.5 vs. Steelers
T-16. Bears
Spread: -3 vs. Packers
T-16. Packers
Spread: +3 at Bears
T-18. Bills
Spread: +3 at Jets
T-18. Giants
Spread: +7 at Cowboys
T-18. Steelers
Spread: +5.5 at Patriots
T-18. Vikings
Spread: -4 vs. Falcons
T-18. Eagles
Spread: -9.5 vs. Redskins
T-18. Chargers
Spread: -6.5 vs. Colts
T-24. Seahawks
Spread: -9.5 vs. Bengals
T-24. Chiefs
Spread: -3.5 at Jaguars
T-26. Broncos
Spread: -1 at Raiders
T-26. Buccaneers
Spread: -1 vs. 49ers
T-26. Saints
Spread: -7 vs. Texans
T-26. Browns
Spread: -5.5 vs. Titans
T-30. Ravens
Spread: -7 at Dolphins
T-30. Lions
Spread: -2.5 at Cardinals
32. Rams
Spread: -3 at Panthers
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
