Editor's note: This story has been updated to reflect the news that Sam Darnold (mono) will not play on Monday Night Football.
Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 2 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than those from PointsBet, which we use below.
NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my SU ratings for Week 2 then wrap it up with ATS.
1. Patriots
Matchup: at Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 91.1%
2. Ravens
Matchup: vs. Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 83.1%
3. Texans
Matchup: vs. Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
4. Chiefs
Matchup: at Raiders
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
5. Panthers
Matchup: vs. Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
6. Browns
Matchup: at Jets
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
T-7. Packers
Matchup: vs. Vikings
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-7. Titans
Matchup: vs. Colts
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-7. Cowboys
Matchup: at Redskins
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-10. Rams
Matchup: vs. Saints
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-10. Steelers
Matchup: vs. Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
12. Chargers
Matchup: at Lions
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
13. Bills
Matchup: at Giants
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
14. 49ers
Matchup: at Bengals
Confidence Rating: 53.5%
15. Bears
Matchup: at Broncos
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
T-16. Falcons
Matchup: vs. Eagles
Confidence Rating: 50%
T-16. Eagles
Matchup: at Falcons
Confidence Rating: 50%
18. Broncos
Matchup: vs. Bears
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
19. Bengals
Matchup: vs. 49ers
Confidence Rating: 46.5%
20. Giants
Matchup: vs. Bills
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
21. Lions
Matchup: vs. Chargers
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-22. Seahawks
Matchup: at Steelers
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-22. Saints
Matchup: at Rams
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-24. Redskins
Matchup: vs. Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-24. Colts
Matchup: at Titans
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-24. Vikings
Matchup: at Packers
Confidence Rating: 38%
27. Jets
Matchup: vs. Browns
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
28. Buccaneers
Matchup: at Panthers
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
29. Raiders
Matchup: vs. Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
30. Jaguars
Matchup: at Texans
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
31. Cardinals
Matchup: at Ravens
Confidence Rating: 16.9%
32. Dolphins
Matchup: vs. Patriots
Confidence Rating: 8.9%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Dolphins
Spread: +19 vs. Patriots
2. 49ers
Spread: +1.5 at Bengals
3. Cardinals
Spread: +13 at Ravens
T-4. Jets
Spread: +6.5 vs. Browns
T-4. Falcons
Spread: +1.5 vs. Eagles
T-4. Jaguars
Spread: +9 at Texans
T-7. Redskins
Spread: +4.5 vs. Cowboys
T-7. Seahawks
Spread: +4 at Steelers
T-7. Raiders
Spread: +8 vs. Chiefs
T-7. Broncos
Spread: +1.5 vs. Bears
T-11. Packers
Spread: -3 vs. Vikings
T-11. Chargers
Spread: -2.5 at Lions
T-11. Giants
Spread: +2 vs. Bills
T-14. Titans
Spread: -3.5 vs. Colts
T-14. Rams
Spread: -3 vs. Saints
T-14. Panthers
Spread: -6.5 vs. Buccaneers
T-14. Buccaneers
Spread: +6.5 at Panthers
T-14. Colts
Spread: +3.5 at Titans
T-14. Saints
Spread: +3 at Rams
T-20. Bills
Spread: -2 at Giants
T-20. Vikings
Spread: +3 at Packers
T-20. Lions
Spread: +2.5 vs. Chargers
T-23. Chiefs
Spread: -8 at Raiders
T-23. Steelers
Spread: -4 vs. Seahawks
T-23. Bears
Spread: -1.5 at Broncos
T-23. Cowboys
Spread: -4.5 at Redskins
T-27. Browns
Spread: -6.5 at Jets
T-27. Texans
Spread: -9 vs. Jaguars
T-27. Eagles
Spread: -1.5 at Falcons
30. Ravens
Spread: -13 vs. Cardinals
31. Bengals
Spread: -1.5 vs. 49ers
32. Patriots
Spread: -19 at Dolphins
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
