Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 2 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
All odds below as of Tuesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 2 then wrap it up with ATS.
1. Patriots
Matchup: vs. Jets
Confidence Rating: 96.6%
2. Cowboys
Matchup: vs. Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 94.6%
3. Vikings
Matchup: vs. Raiders
Confidence Rating: 77%
T-4. Packers
Matchup: vs. Broncos
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
T-4. 49ers
Matchup: vs. Steelers
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
T-6. Chiefs
Matchup: vs. Ravens
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
T-6. Bills
Matchup: vs. Bengals
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
T-6. Eagles
Matchup: vs. Lions
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
9. Buccaneers
Matchup: vs. Giants
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
10. Seahawks
Matchup: vs. Saints
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
T-11. Chargers
Matchup: vs. Texans
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-11. Bears
Matchup: at Redskins
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-13. Panthers
Matchup: at Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-13. Rams
Matchup: at Browns
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-13. Colts
Matchup: at Falcons
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
16. Titans
Matchup: at Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
17. Jaguars
Matchup: vs. Titans
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
T-18. Browns
Matchup: vs. Rams
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-18. Falcons
Matchup: at Colts
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-18. Cardinals
Matchup: vs. Panthers
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-21. Texans
Matchup: at Chargers
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-21. Redskins
Matchup: vs. Bears
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
23. Saints
Matchup: at Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
24. Giants
Matchup: at Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
T-25. Ravens
Matchup: at Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
T-25. Bengals
Matchup: at Bills
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
T-25. Lions
Matchup: at Eagles
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
T-28. Steelers
Matchup: at 49ers
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
T-28. Broncos
Matchup: at Packers
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
30. Raiders
Matchup: at Vikings
Confidence Rating: 23%
31. Dolphins
Matchup: at Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 5.4%
32. Jets
Matchup: at Patriots
Confidence Rating: 3.4%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Dolphins
Spread: +22 at Cowboys
2. Jets
Spread: +23 at Patriots
T-3. Giants
Spread: +7 at Buccaneers
T-3. Chargers
Spread: -3 vs. Texans
T-3. Browns
Spread: +3 vs. Rams
T-6. Cardinals
Spread: +2.5 vs. Panthers
T-6. Bills
Spread: -6 vs. Bengals
T-6. Vikings
Spread: -8 vs. Raiders
T-6. Broncos
Spread: +7.5 at Packers
T-6. Ravens
Spread: +7 at Chiefs
T-11. Titans
Spread: -1.5 at Jaguars
T-11. 49ers
Spread: -7 vs. Steelers
T-11. Jaguars
Spread: +1.5 vs. Titans
T-11. Falcons
Spread: +2 at Colts
T-11. Redskins
Spread: +4 vs. Bears
T-11. Colts
Spread: -2 vs. Falcons
T-11. Bears
Spread: -4 at Redskins
T-11. Steelers
Spread: +7 at 49ers
T-11. Eagles
Spread: -6.5 vs. Lions
T-11. Seahawks
Spread: -4.5 vs. Saints
T-11. Saints
Spread: +4.5 at Seahawks
T-11. Lions
Spread: +6.5 at Eagles
T-23. Panthers
Spread: -2.5 at Cardinals
T-23. Raiders
Spread: +8 at Vikings
T-23. Bengals
Spread: +6 at Bills
T-23. Packers
Spread: -7.5 vs. Broncos
T-23. Chiefs
Spread: -7 vs. Ravens
T-28. Texans
Spread: +3 at Chargers
T-28. Buccaneers
Spread: -7 vs. Giants
T-28. Rams
Spread: -3 at Browns
31. Patriots
Spread: -23 vs. Jets
32. Cowboys
Spread: -22 vs. Dolphins
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
