Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 4 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 3 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight Up Confidence Ratings
1. Chargers
Matchup: Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 90.4%
2. Rams
Matchup: Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 83.1%
3. Colts
Matchup: Raiders
Confidence Rating: 75.7%
T-4. Patriots
Matchup: Bills
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
T-4. Ravens
Matchup: Browns
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
T-6. Texans
Matchup: Panthers
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
T-6. Chiefs
Matchup: Lions
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
8. Packers
Matchup: Eagles
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
9. Falcons
Matchup: Titans
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-10. Broncos
Matchup: Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-10. Seahawks
Matchup: Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 62%
12. Steelers
Matchup: Bengals
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-13. Bears
Matchup: Vikings
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-13. Giants
Matchup: Redskins
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
15. Cowboys
Matchup: Saints
Confidence Rating: 53.5%
16. Saints
Matchup: Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 46.5%
T-17. Redskins
Matchup: Giants
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-17. Vikings
Matchup: Bears
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
19. Bengals
Matchup: Steelers
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-20. Jaguars
Matchup: Broncos
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-20. Cardinals
Matchup: Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 38%
22. Titans
Matchup: Falcons
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
23. Eagles
Matchup: Packers
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
T-24. Panthers
Matchup: Texans
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
T-24. Lions
Matchup: Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
T-26. Browns
Matchup: Ravens
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
T-26. Bills
Matchup: Patriots
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
28. Raiders
Matchup: Colts
Confidence Rating: 24.3%
29. Buccaneers
Matchup: Rams
Confidence Rating: 16.9%
30. Dolphins
Matchup: Chargers
Confidence Rating: 9.6%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Cardinals
Spread: +5.5
Opponent: Seahawks
T-2. Dolphins
Spread: +16.5
Opponent: Chargers
T-2. Saints
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: Cowboys
T-2. Bengals
Spread: +4.5
Opponent: Steelers
T-5. Browns
Spread: +7
Opponent: Ravens
T-5. Bills
Spread: +7
Opponent: Patriots
T-5. Colts
Spread: -7
Opponent: Raiders
T-5. Lions
Spread: +6.5
Opponent: Chiefs
T-5. Rams
Spread: -10
Opponent: Buccaneers
T-5. Texans
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: Panthers
T-11. Broncos
Spread: -3
Opponent: Broncos
T-11. Redskins
Spread: +3
Opponent: Giants
T-11. Eagles
Spread: +5
Opponent: Eagles
T-14. Vikings
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: Bears
T-14. Falcons
Spread: -4
Opponent: Titans
T-14. Titans
Spread: +4
Opponent: Falcons
T-14. Bears
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: Vikings
T-18. Giants
Spread: -3
Opponent: Redskins
T-18. Jaguars
Spread: +3
Opponent: Broncos
T-18. Packers
Spread: -5
Opponent: Eagles
T-21. Ravens
Spread: -7
Opponent: Browns
T-21. Raiders
Spread: +7
Opponent: Colts
T-21. Panthers
Spread: +4.5
Opponent: Texans
T-21. Chiefs
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: Lions
T-21. Buccaneers
Spread: +10
Opponent: Rams
T-21. Patriots
Spread: -7
Opponent: Bills
T-27. Chargers
Spread: -16.5
Opponent: Dolphins
T-27. Steelers
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: Bengals
T-27. Cowboys
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: Saints
30. Seahawks
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: Cardinals
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
