NFL Pick Saturday: Expert Bet for Bengals vs Steelers
This is a buy-low spot on the Steelers and a sell-high spot on the Bengals, who have overtaken the Steelers as the luckiest team in football according to our Luck Rankings.
Jake Browning has played well in place of Joe Burrow (IR-thumb), but he's benefited from multiple tipped-pass completions to Ja’Marr Chase, a prayer caught by Tee Higgins, and 58% of his passing yardage coming after the catch.
Both teams have key injuries that will impact the Bengals passing game.
The Steelers will be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), while the Bengals will be without Chase (shoulder), who has accounted for 26% of Browning’s yardage, 29% of his touchdowns and 24% of his first downs through the air. While those two injuries would appear to offset on the surface, it’s worth noting that Browning’s worst start came in a 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Week 12 in a game Chase was healthy and Fitzpatrick missed.
The Bengals will also be without run-stuffing defensive tackle D.J. Reader (IR-quad), whose 82.2 PFF grade ranks ninth among 132 qualified interior lineman. With Reader missing all but two snaps last week, Ty Chandler registered the first 100-yard game all season for a Minnesota running back, rushing 23 times for 132 yards and a touchdown. That continued a trend from last season that saw the Bengals run defense spring massive leaks whenever Reader missed time.
- With Reader (10 games): 3.9 YPC, 89.5 rushing yards/game, 0.6 rush TD/game
- Without Reader (six games): 4.6 YPC, 135.2 rushing yards/game, 1.0 rush TD/game
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After Mitch Trubisky reminded everyone that he’s Mitch Trubisky by melting down after jumping out to a 13-0 lead last week, Mason Rudolph will make his first start of the year for the Steelers. Many Steeler fans have been clamoring for Rudolph, and they’re right to: Rudolph’s career Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (5.08) is higher than Pickett’s (4.97) and Trubisky’s career mark with the Steelers (4.87).
The Steelers racked up 153 rushing yards on 33 carries in the first meeting against Cincinnati and should be able to have success on the ground again against a Reader-less unit that enters Week 16 ranked 29th in DVOA against the run, which will make Rudolph’s job easier.
The Steelers have to win two of their remaining three games to avoid their first losing season under Mike Tomlin, and this is their last home game and easiest remaining matchup, so we should get their best effort here.
According to our Action Labs data, the Steelers are 55-31-3 (64%) ATS as a underdog under Tomlin, including 21-11 (66%) as a 'dog off a loss and 17-6-3 (74%) ATS as a home 'dog. Against opponents with a better record, the Steelers are 29-11-1 (73%) ATS as a 'dog under Tomlin, covering by 4.0 points per game.
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