Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon laid out their favorite season-long NFL player props on the Action Network Podcast. For their full breakdowns, subscribe below. All of these picks are available at DraftKings.
Brian Robinson Jr.
Under 750.5 Rushing Yards
Raybon: Robinson is an early-down running back on a projected last-place team that has a 6.5 win total.
Here’s how Robinson ranked as a rookie in some key categories:
- 48th out of 60 in yards after contact per attempt
- 50th out of 60 in yards per carry
- 50th out of 60 in breakaway percentage at 15.9%
New Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy has never ranked higher than 20th in rush attempts. He also benched Clyde Edwards-Helaire midway through last season.
I’d bet this one down to 700.5.
Rachaad White
Under 700.5 Rushing Yards
Koerner: I went back and looked at last year's season-long player props, and most of the rushing-yard totals for RBs went under. In fact, if you bet the under on all of them, you would've hit about 60% of your bets. If you targeted RBs who didn't have a guaranteed role as a bellcow, unders were 10-2.
White is exactly the type of RB where that rule could apply. He's a lock to be the Bucs' Week 1 workhorse, but anything can happen beyond that.
White struggled as a runner in his rookie season, ranking 50th out of 58 qualified RBs in avoided tackle rate, 53rd in explosive run rate and 56th in yards after contact per rush. The Buccaneers offensive line will be one of the worst in the league and just lost center Ryan Jensen for the season.
White's best attribute is his pass-catching skill, which may be how Tampa Bay leans on him. I could see the likes of Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds or Sean Tucker eat into his early-down role eventually.
There are enough red flags around White, specifically in this market, that I think his median should be lower.
Dak Prescott
Under 12.5 Interceptions
Raybon: Prescott’s career interception rate of 2% would need 650 pass attempts to reach this, and his career high is 596. He’s also missed 17 games over the past three seasons.
Prescott has 65 career interceptions in 97 career starts. That’s 0.67 per game. At that rate, he’d have to play 19.4 games to reach 13 interceptions and 17.9 games to reach 12 interceptions.
I’d bet this one down to 11.5.
Isaiah Hodgins
Under 500.5 Receiving Yards
Koerner: Hodgins turned into one of the Giants' top receivers in the second half of last season because New York had no more receivers left and he did play really well.
The opportunity may not be there this year, though. Parris Campbell and rookie Jaylin Hyatt were added, while Sterling Shepard and Wan'Dale Robinson will get snaps when they're healthy. More importantly, tight end Darren Waller looks like he's going to be Daniel Jones' No. 1 target.
Hodgins also benefited from an 82% catch rate last season. Based on his 9.3 Average Depth of Target, I'd expect that to be closer to 67-70%.
Hodgins will have a full-time role in Week 1, but it's going to be tough for him to get enough snaps and targets in this offense, which leans toward the run anyway.
I'm projecting Hodgins for 450.5 receiving yards this season, but this is a prop where there are quite a few "outs" for the under to hit.
Dalton Schultz
Under 550.5 Receiving Yards
Raybon: Schultz only played 66% of snaps with the Texans starters in preseason. He’s played 81% of snaps over the last three years with the Cowboys. Also, Schultz has an uninspiring 7.0 career Average Depth of Target.
Najee Harris
Under 975.5 Rushing Yards
Koerner: Harris cleared this number in each of his first two seasons, during which he didn't miss a single game. That's something that will be hard for a running back to do for a third straight season.
The main threat to Harris not clearing this total is backup Jaylen Warren, who started to eat into Harris' receiving workload last season. All signs are pointing to more early-down work for Warren this year, as well. Here's how the two compared last season:
- Avoided tackles: Harris 21st, Warren eighth
- Explosive run rate: Harris 50th, Warren ninth
- Yards after contact per attempt: Harris 43rd, Warren 21st
The threat of Warren gives Harris a lower floor than he's had in either of his first two seasons, something that provides an additional "out" for the under here.
Raheem Mostert
Under 525.5 Rushing Yards
Raybon: Mostert is in his age-31 season and has missed 26 games over the last three seasons.
Mostert also going to be in a three-way running back by committee at some point since he got less guaranteed money ($2 million) than Jeff Wilson Jr. ($2.6 million), and DeVon Achane was drafted 84th overall.
Also, since the end of last season, the Dolphins have pursued De’Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook and now Jonathan Taylor. Chances are Miami acquires a running back at some point this season.
I’d bet this down to 500.5
D.J. Chark
Under 44.5 Receptions
Koerner: Chark has a wide range of outcomes because he's a downfield threat. He had an Average Depth of Target of 15.4 last season, and the assumption is Carolina brought him in so he could fill a similar role this season.
However, Chark isn't a great fit with Bryce Young, whose main weakness might be his downfield accuracy. Young had the second-most time to throw in all of Division I last season on pass attempts of 20 or more yards down the field, and he won't have that luxury this season in Carolina.
I think Young's top targets will be Adam Thielen and eventually rookie Jonathan Mingo. Chark will have spiked weeks, but this is the ideal market to fade him.
Plus, Chark has missed a handful of games in four of his five NFL seasons and is already dealing with a hamstring injury. If he doesn't suit up for Week 1, this bet will be voided, but I don't think that's a reason not to take it. Quite the opposite, since he's likely to be limited in Week 1 if he suits up. It's also the kind of injury that could linger throughout the regular season.
This is exactly the kind of bet I want to lock in right now. It was 48.5 receptions last week and is already dropping.
Miles Sanders
Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Raybon: In four career seasons, Sanders has scored seven or more touchdowns. That came last season in Philadelphia, where the Eagles offense was third in the NFL in points and rush attempts and first in rushing touchdowns.
That’s not going to be the case this year in Carolina. The Panthers offensive line, which has been struggling throughout training camp, is a big downgrade from the Eagles’ unit.
Sanders has also missed nine games over the last three seasons and has been dealing with a nagging hamstring injury throughout training camp.
Travis Etienne
Under 950.5 Rushing Yards
Koerner: Etienne deserves this high total, but he has a few things going against him.
Firstly, the Jaguars offensive line had the second-lowest run-blocking grade last season, according to Pro Football Focus. Etienne overcame that last season, as my expected yards per attempt model had him around 4.6 yards per attempt compared to the 5.1 he averaged. It's unlikely he overcomes that again this season.
Secondly, the Jaguars will face more defenses this season that are tough against the run. Jacksonville had a top-10 easiest schedule last season, but it's a top-10 toughest this year.
Lastly, the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round. He profiles more as an early-down back and based on his preseason usage, Bigsby could be mixing in quite a bit on early downs. He looks great so far. Etienne was on the field all third and fourth downs, so he'll be involved in the passing game.
Etienne is another RB who has enough concerns that his median rushing total should be a bit lower.
