Every week during the 2024 season, I'll be sharing my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate. For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 6-11-1
- Overall: 43-28-1 (60.1%)
Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 7 picks for Sunday.
NFL Predictions
- Seahawks +3 (-110) vs. Falcons
- Browns +6 (-115) vs. Bengals
- 49ers -1.5 (-110) vs. Chiefs
Those of you who have followed along in recent years won't be surprised to see a couple of underdogs among my Week 7 picks.
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Seahawks vs. Falcons
The Seahawks jumped out to an impressive 3-0 start under new head coach Mike Macdonald, but did so against extremely light competition, including the Broncos in Bo Nix's first career start, Patriots (went to overtime) and Dolphins (without Tua Tagovailoa and other key players). Seattle has since come back down to earth with three straight losses against a tougher trio of opponents in the Lions, Giants and 49ers.
However, I think now is the time to buy the dip after the mini-bye, which should prove extremely valuable on a number of fronts.
For one, this is a new coaching staff that I rate highly, so I'm sure getting some extra time to iron out some kinks will help. Secondly, Seattle simply needed the break after one of the most brutal stretches any team will go through this NFL season. It started out in Detroit, then came back home to take on the Giants on a short week, followed by a divisional showdown with the 49ers on another short week. In total, the Hawks played three games in 11 days with long travel mixed in. Lastly, Seattle will likely be healthier after dealing with an abundance of injuries on defense, which wasn't ideal against two of the NFL's best offenses in Detroit and San Francisco.
While Seattle should be much healthier in the front seven, it's still not all good news on the injury front with some uncertainty at cornerback. The most notable player to monitor is cornerback Riq Woolen, who is playing at an All-Pro level so far this season and ranks in the top three among all qualified cornerbacks in completion percentage, passer rating and yards per target. I'm obviously hoping he suits up on Sunday but if not, there's still a very viable path for the Seahawks to cover on the back of their offense.
The biggest question surrounding this offense entering the season was the offensive line, which has also dealt with injuries along the right side. That unit is the weak link and has held back the Seattle offense at times. However, that shouldn't be too much of an issue against an Atlanta defense that's incapable of generating pressure. Geno Smith, who is playing at a very high level in new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's new offense, should have ample time to pick apart the Falcons secondary with his bevy of weapons.
Ultimately, I have these two teams power rated very similarly, so I don't think this line should be a full field goal, especially since Atlanta doesn't boast an elite home-field advantage and Seattle will benefit from much-needed extra rest.
Keep in mind that Atlanta's three non-Panthers wins have come by one (because Nick Sirriani didn't run the ball), two (thanks to a pair of non-offensive touchdowns and field goal as time expired) and six points (in overtime after kicking a game-tying field goal as time expired followed by winning a coin toss).
All this Atlanta team does is play close games and I expect another one on Sunday, so I happily took the field goal here.
Trending: Road underdogs on a three or more game losing streak with extra rest between games have gone 61-40-1 (60.4%) ATS since 2003.
Pick: Seahawks +3 (-110)
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Bengals vs. Browns
Have the 1-5 Browns quit? I don't believe so after seeing strong effort and some fight last week in Philadelphia in a tough situational spot, their third straight road game against an Eagles team coming off of a bye. Maybe there's risk that Cleveland will quit as the season progresses, but I expect it to show up against their bitter rival for a home divisional game.
This line jumped after the Amari Cooper trade news broke, but how much can a wide receiver from an anemic Cleveland passing attack really be worth to the spread? Also, it's not like Cooper was playing at his peak with severe drop issues. His ability to separate will obviously be missed some on the outside, but his absence will likely push Kevin Stefanski and offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to transition harder to Stefanski's preferred offensive style of heavier sets that lean on short passes and the run game.
The offensive line is still messy in the interior, especially if Ethan Pocic can't go, which would force backup guard Michael Dunn to hold down the fort in the middle again this week. However, Cleveland does at least have both of its starting tackles back, which led to improved production in the run game last week.
The offense could receive another boost in that department with the return of Nick Chubb, who is set to make his season debut on Sunday. I wouldn't expect a full workload, but even 10-15 carries will certainly help this struggling offense.
Plus, that offensive approach can certainly work against a Bengals defense that can be pushed around (ranks in the bottom two in Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA) even with improved health up front. I'd also expect a heavy dose of David Njoku and the Browns' tight ends when Deshaun Watson does drop back, which could have success against a Bengals defense that's vulnerable in that department.
While Watson and the Browns offense is legitimately terrible — potentially historically bad — they probably have at least some positive regression coming on third downs. Cleveland has only converted on an NFL-low 19.23% of third-down conversions. To put that number into perceptive, no team has finished a season with a conversion rate of even below 25% since the 49ers finished at 24.02% in 2005.
Defensively, Cleveland is as healthy as its been all season and still boasts one of the league's best units on paper. The Browns also given Joe Burrow as many problems as any defense in the NFL since he arrived from LSU.
For what it's worth, I do also like the under in this game, which has a lot of correlation with my Browns position. In what I expect to be a lower scoring game, the points obviously hold more value. Plus, Cleveland has shown us all season its ceiling is probably around 17 points, as the only team in the league yet to reach 20 points or 300 yards of total offense in any single game. The path to a cover and potential upset victory here is to shorten what should already be a slower-paced game and rely on its defense to hold Cincy to under 21 points. It wouldn't hurt to also steal an early score in the scripted portion of the game where head coach Kevin Stefanski usually excels.
All the Bengals have done all season is play close games with all six of their games being decided by 10 points or less, including four within a six-point margin (five if you remove the late broken run against the Giants). I expect another one here in a low-scoring AFC North affair.
Trending: Joe Burrow is just 1-5 in his career against the Browns, including 1-3 over the past three seasons with four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Pick: Browns +6 (-115)
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Chiefs vs. 49ers
No, I'm not betting the Titans this week — well, unless that line gets to +10 — but maybe I'm doing something even dumber than backing Will Levis: fading Patrick Mahomes as an underdog.
I'm sure you'll hear about that all week, but it's not like I need the 49ers to win by margin here. I just can't pass up taking my No. 1-power-rated team at home laying a number shorter than they did in the Super Bowl on a neutral field in a game they lost in overtime. Especially when you consider Kanas City is a step below on both sides of the ball from where it was last February without cornerback L'Jarius Sneed, running back Isiah Pacheco and wide receiver Rashee Rice.
Travis Kelce also isn't in his annual playoff form after traveling around the world with Taylor Swift. The offense still lacks any explosiveness and its tackles can be exploited. Defensively, Kansas City isn't as strong on the back end and the run defense has benefited from facing a number of teams down multiple offensive linemen.
Despite those issues, the Chiefs have still found a way to get to 5-0 on the season. However, they have four one-possession wins and are an Isaiah Likely toe, pass interference on fourth-and-16 against the Bengals and Falcons fourth-down conversion (or blown pass interference in the end zone) away from potentially sitting at 2-3. And while the offense seemed to find something against the Saints before the bye week, that performance doesn't hold as much water after seeing the Bucs put up a 50 burger on New Orleans last week.
Conversely, the 3-3 49ers have three double-digit victories and a pair of improbable losses in which they blew late double-digit leads. They really should be 5-1 on the season with the lone loss coming at an undefeated Minnesota team.
Special teams issues did contribute to those blown leads (although losing a kicker is just unlucky), which is definitely a concern in this matchup against the Chiefs, but I still had to lay a point in a game I think should be closer to a field goal with the offense that is playing at home with an exponentially more explosive offense.
I think the much more desperate 49ers get their Super Bowl revenge.
Trending: During the regular season, Mahomes is 6-0-1 ATS as an underdog of a field goal or more, but just 5-6 ATS when the spread is under a field goal either way, including 0-2 last year when the Chiefs lost as short favorites against the Eagles and Bills when they essentially just needed to win the game.
Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-110)
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