For the second straight week, we have two Monday Night Football games to make NFL picks on.
Check out our staff's best bets for Eagles vs. Buccaneers and Rams vs. Bengals.
NFL Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on a pick for any of the matchups below to navigate this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
| 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
By Sean Koerner
This game has the lowest luck total difference of the week at -11, according to our NFL Luck Rankings. This means both teams have quite a few more points than play-by-play data would suggest.
In the Eagles' case, their offense has been surprisingly mediocre this season, ranking just 13th in DVOA. Philadelphia has benefited a lot from turnovers and had two touchdown drives that were fewer than 30 yards, and it also got a pick-six in Week 2. Last week, the Buccaneers also benefited from a Justin Fields pick-six on a throw from inside his own end zone.
Needless to say, both of these teams are due for some regression in luck when it comes to putting up points.
Adrian Hill will be the referee for this game. Games he has officiated since 2020 are 32-19 (62%) to the under. A lot of that is because his crew calls offensive holding at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
That's especially important here because the Buccaneers entered Week 2 leading the NFL with five offensive holding penalties committed this season. Now, Tampa Bay has to face a ferocious Eagles front seven, and you know flags will be ready to be thrown. We could see a few drive-killers in the form of penalty flags in this game.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Jalen Hurts is still going through a bit of an adjustment period with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson after losing Shane Steichen. The Eagles have not gotten into a rhythm offensively and the numbers bear it out.
Philadelphia's offense in total is 19th in yards per play this season and ranks 23rd in pass offense DVOA. According to Sharp Football, Hurts has averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt when teams opt to sit back in zone coverage without blitzing. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles should implement a more conservative game plan than he usually does due to Hurts' indecisiveness and to keep his CBs from playing on an island against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Since the beginning of the 2022 season, all in-conference night games have tilted towards the under at a 69.6% rate over a 46-game sample size. In these games, when the total has closed at 44 or higher, the under has cashed in 15 of 21 games, 71.4%. Simply betting every night game over the past five years with a closing total of 45 or greater would have netted a 27% return on investment with a 65.9% win rate.
This spot Monday night is screaming to bettors to play the under.
Pick: Under 45 (Play to 44.5)
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
Could the Kenneth Gainwell RB1 experience be over after just one week? It sure seems like that.
Gainwell rushed 14 times for 55 yards in Week 1, with D’Andre Swift and Boston Scott picking up just one carry apiece. It seemed as though he would control the lion’s share of touches, but a rib injury and short turnaround held him out of Thursday Night Football.
Then, mayhem ensued.
Swift was unstoppable. He ran 28 times — yes, you read that right — for 175 yards. He averaged 6.3 yards per carry with Boston Scott adding five for 40 behind him. Swift was the ultimate difference maker in the Eagles walking away with a win in their home opener.
That leads us to Monday night where the question everyone will be asking is who will be RB1. Gainwell returned to practice this week and will return to the lineup, a crowded backfield that also includes Rashaad Penny.
Our Action Network projections slate Gainwell for 29 rushing yards, a 5.5% edge when compared to the current over/under prop of 34.5. While I think he’s a very solid running back, there are just too many mouths to feed in this offense.
During QB/RB handoff exchange period, D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell took turns handling balls from Jalen Hurts in that order, followed by Penny and Scott
— Josh Tolentino (@JCTSports) September 22, 2023
Swift will likely open the game as the starter — it’s hard to look otherwise after that TNF performance — and he’s received the initial work in practice, per Josh Tolentino of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
This is purely based on opportunities and with Swift’s recent performance and Jalen Hurts’ mobility, I’m not sure Gainwell will carry the ball enough to reach this number. Even in short 3rd and 4th down situations, the Eagles often opt to use Hurts over their backs.
Fade Gainwell in his return. It’s Swift time in Philly.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
Making this bet at BetMGM? Click here for the latest promo code.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
By Billy Ward
The Bucs offense under Baker Mayfield has been a pleasant surprise so far this season, leading the team to a 2-0 start in what seemed like was destined to be a rebuilding year. Mayfield ranks seventh in adjusted yards per attempt in the NFL and has played cleanly with no interceptions and just one sack taken.
Tampa Bay has also played the Vikings and the Bears, who look like two of the league's worst defenses. Both teams the Bucs have played have surrendered more points in their other games than against Tampa.
The point is that maybe the Bucs are who we thought they were before the season. If that's the case, it could get ugly against an elite Eagles defense. While Philly is only favored by five on the road, it wouldn't shock me to see a fairly non-competitive game down the stretch.
Which is the main way this prop could hit. The Eagles' explosive passing attack builds a big lead early, then takes the air out of the ball late. Tampa is also generally far better in pass defense than against the run, so Philadelphia is unlikely to put up many points if and when it switches into clock-killing mode.
For some reason, DraftKings has the second half as slightly likelier to see more points here. We'd expect that in a closer game, but not if we think one team controls the action. Of course, we could still win this one in a close game, as well, giving us multiple paths to winning.
I'd bet this one down to -120.
Pick: Highest-Scoring Half: First (+100)
Rams vs. Bengals
Tutu Atwell's career got off to a slow start, but he's making up for lost time as a major part of the Rams passing game.
Atwell entered Week 2 with the third-highest Pro Football Focus receiving grade through two weeks and ranks ninth in receiving yards. Atwell is averaging 8.5 targets per game, and more importantly, averaging 15.1 yards per reception. He is the clear down-field threat for this offense.
With the market down on the Rams heading into 2023, we need to take advantage of the slow adjustment for this passing attack. Matthew Stafford has played well and the Rams offense has played at a fast pace. Los Angeles leads the league in plays per game and in turn, Stafford leads in attempts per game.
Against a Bengals defense that entered the week ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA, the Rams will once again feature their two young receivers Puka Nacua and Atwell. I'll gladly play the prop of the receiver of the two who is lined a full 11 yards lower and possesses the big-play ability.
Pick: Tutu Atwell Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (Bet to 57.5)
Rams vs. Bengals
Puka Nacua has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season putting up historical numbers, and I don't expect him to slow down anytime soon.
Nacua already has 25 receptions and 266 yards so far through two games and seems to have cemented himself into the role that Cooper Kupp has had over the previous two seasons. If this line was for Kupp, we wouldn't even think twice about hitting it.
Although Nacua isn't quite to Kupp's level yet, he's close and this line is about 15 yards too low here.
Pick: Puka Nacua Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Rams vs. Bengals
By Billy Ward
This game is pushing the limits of my threshold for this prop but is still projecting as a slight value. We're 4-2 this season taking this prop on games with a spread of 2.5 or less, all of which had odds of +125 or better.
The spread here is just 1.5, with a fairly low total of 43.5. Games that fit that rough criteria have true odds of about +120 on the no side, giving us a slight edge.
That's with Joe Burrow projected as starting this game. If he's out or limited, it probably creates an even better situation. The total would certainly drop, while the spread would likely flip to a similar number in the other direction.
Perhaps the best-case scenario is Burrow plays but at less than full strength, and the Bengals take a more cautious, run-first approach. That would slow the game down, and fewer total drives certainly would help the no side of this prop.
As of Sunday night, DraftKings is the only book with a line for this prop. However, BetMGM generally offers this prop as well, so keep an eye out (listed under "Scoring Props" to see if they post a better line. I wouldn't go past the +130.
Pick: Either Team To Record 3 Unanswered Scores: No (+130)
Rams vs. Bengals
Matt Stafford has grabbed the Rams by the horns in the first two games of a season following a trainwreck campaign for the former Super Bowl Champions.
He’s thrown for 300+ yards in the Rams’ first two games. His passer rating took a hit to 77.4 after throwing a pair of picks to an elite 49ers defense, but he still maintains a top ten QBR of 68.4.
Stafford is without his old reliable Cooper Kupp in this Super Bowl LVI rematch on Monday, but instead has rookie Puka Nacua, who has set the NFL on fire to begin his career averaging a league-leading 133 yards.
Stafford is throwing 46.5 pass attempts, which is third among all quarterbacks. But he’s the furthest thing from a reckless gunslinger. That’s why those two picks last week were the first he’s thrown since Week 6 in 2022. He utilizes his supporting cast wisely as four Rams have double-digit targets in the stead of the polarizing Kupp.
This Bengals defense has been friendly on opposing quarterbacks with a league-bottom 13.5% pressure rate and only one sack. This isn’t the same shutdown unit we’ve seen in the last couple of seasons as their first two losses have displayed.
