Chris Raybon, a senior NFL and fantasy football analyst, highlights his favorite Week 8 NFL picks below. He has a 310-236-18 (56.8%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app.
NFL Betting Picks
Steelers-Ravens Under 46.5
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
Both of these teams are top-three in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA and bottom-six in early down success rate on offense.
The under is 62-43-1 when Mike Tomlin takes his squad on the road. I also expect the Steelers to struggle to live up to their end of the bargain as far of the total against a rested Ravens defense coming off the bye.
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Ravens -4 vs. Steelers
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
John Harbaugh is 9-3 against the spread off a bye and Baltimore's defense is every bit as good as Pittsburgh’s — especially with the recent addition of Yannick Ngakoue.
I would have the Ravens favored by three points against the Steelers on a neutral field and make this line -5.5 (access my ratings through our PRO Projections).
I would bet the Ravens to -4.
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Raiders +2.5 at Browns
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
The Browns are 5-2 despite a -21 point differential. They average 8.7 yards per play and an 8.5% touchdown rate on plays involving Odell Beckham Jr. and 5.5 yards per play and a 4.5% TD rate on all non-OBJ plays.
Meanwhile, Derek Carr is fourth in the league in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.26) despite a banged-up receiving corps and offensive line, and the Raiders have wins over Kansas City and New Orleans and were within four of Tampa Bay last week until the 7:48 mark of the fourth quarter.
I like the Raiders down to +2.
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Chargers -3 at Broncos
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET | More Game Info
Drew Lock has the worst passer rating under pressure in the league this season (24.3, per Pro Football Focus) while the Chargers rank 10th in pressure rate (24.6%) despite blitzing at 13.8%, tied for the lowest rate in the league.
This spells trouble for Lock, since he is also 34th in passer rating from a clean pocket (78.1). The return of Melvin Ingram last week is being overlooked, as Ingram ranks 23rd of 112 edge rushers in PFF grade.
While the Broncos are averaging only 19.6 points per game in Lock’s nine career starts, the Chargers are averaging 26.6 in Justin Herbert’s five starts so far this year, and Herbert ranks fifth in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (8.15) despite facing two top-five pass-DVOA defenses (Tampa Bay, first; Kansas City, fifth).
I would bet LA up to -3.5.
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Saints -2.5 at Bears
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET | More Game Info
The Saints are banged-up at wide receiver but still have Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, Jared Cook and one of the league’s best offensive lines.
The Bears, meanwhile, are averaging only 16.0 points per game at home and will be without Cody Whitehair, their starting center — always a major blow for an offense.
I like the Saints up to -5.
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