The Kansas City Chiefs will welcome Patrick Mahomes back this Sunday while the Bills and Browns meet in a matchup of two teams trending opposite ways from preseason expectations.
But where's the best betting value in either game? Our experts reveal their favorite picks of the week, featuring those games and two others:
- Chiefs at Titans: 1 p.m. ET
- Bills at Browns: 1 p.m. ET
- Lions at Bears: 1 p.m. ET
- Rams at Steelers: 4:25 p.m. ET
Now let's dig into their bets!
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Sean Koerner: Titans +6 vs. Chiefs
Mahomes is set to return from a knee injury that's kept him out of the past two games. The Chiefs managed to go 1-1 without him, and while the market appeared to value him as being worth seven to eight points to the spread, I'm hesitant to give them the full points back quite yet as he isn't likely to be 100% quite yet.
There's a chance he could have limited mobility on Sunday. And while he isn't necessarily known for his rushing ability, he does use his legs to avoid pressure, extend plays and buy time for his receivers to get open for a huge play. We might not see that Mahomes in Tennessee, but a more conservative version.
One silver lining regarding his knee injury is that the time off has likely allowed him to overcome an ankle injury that had been nagging him previously. Getting that ankle closer to 100% could be the blessing in disguise.
But there's some slight value on the Titans getting 5.5 points here if it appears Mahomes will be less than 100%. There's also a non-zero possibility Mahomes has an in-game setback, forcing the Chiefs to bring Matt Moore back in.
If Moore were to start, the line would be closer to Titans -2.5 to -3, so there's some hidden upside taking the Titans here as a result.[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Chris Raybon: Chiefs -6 at Titans
I'm gonna disagree with Sean here.
Despite having to lay points on the road, I knew I would be betting this game if Mahomes got announced as the starter for KC. This matchup combines two of my favorite betting situations: Andy Reid on the road, and a team with an edge in the passing game on both sides of the ball.
Since becoming head coach of the Chiefs, Reid has gone 34-17-1 (67%) against the spread on the road — including 3-1 this season — according to our Bet Labs data. There’s not many coaches this side of Bill Belichick better at getting their team prepared to go on the road and compete at a high level.
And with Mahomes, that mark jumps to 9-3-1. In what could mark the first time all season the Chiefs have a full game of Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins, they'll face a sub-par Titans pass defense (20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA) that just lost starting cornerback Malcolm Butler (wrist) for the season. Butler’s likely replacement, LeShaun Sims, has earned a grade just 42.1 in pass coverage from Pro Football Focus — not even two-thirds as good as Butler (64.2), who they have ranked inside the top 50.
Going unnoticed amidst the Chiefs' injury woes is that coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has solidified the formerly-maligned pass defense in his first season with the team. The Chiefs are up to No. 4 in pass defense DVOA and face a Tennessee offense ranked 19th in the same metric.
The Chiefs' issue has been run defense (28th), but the Titans haven’t been as good on the ground this season as you would think given their identity, mustering just the 23rd-best efficiency in the league.
The Titans are not built to come from behind, which is not a recipe for a cover against Mahomes and a healthy group of receivers and a solid pass defense.[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: Browns -2.5 vs. Bills
This is my favorite buy-low/sell-high spot of the weekend.
Yes, the Bills are 6-2, but they’ve beat absolutely nobody: Jets, Giants, Dolphins, Bengals, Redskins and Titans. They have six wins with an almost impossibly low strength of victory of .176 for that many wins. In the AFC, only the Dolphins and Bengals have lower SOV’s and that’s because they’ve combined for exactly one win, which came over the lowly Jets.
The Bills pass defense has played at a high level — albeit against mostly poor quarterbacks — thanks to safeties who give up nothing deep and a solid group of corners, and I expect that to continue barring injuries.
However, the run defense is very vulnerable, which you saw the Eagles exploit a few weeks ago.
In a game that should feature windy conditions, I trust Nick Chubb and the Cleveland rushing attack much more than Buffalo. There aren't many quarterbacks I trust less than Baker Mayfield right now — he’s been as bad as people are saying; just look at his horrid numbers when he's not being pressure — but I’d still take him and his group of receivers over Josh Allen and the Bills.
When the Bills went to New England in windy conditions a few weeks ago, the game plan was to feed Chubb against a great pass defense and vulnerable run defense. And if not for some flukey turnovers, they may have pulled out a win. I think that’s the plan again on Sunday (with a few shots downfield) for a Cleveland squad that ranks second in the NFL at 5.2 yards per rush.
Baker Mayfield has the lowest passer rating in the NFL when not under pressure this season per @NextGenStats. He is the only QB with more INT than TD passes when not pressured. pic.twitter.com/OuFERsVDzm
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 5, 2019
Buy low on the Brownies to pick up a home win against a severely overrated Bills bunch that has six wins thanks to a cupcake schedule.
Also, keep your eye out for the impact of hidden yardage, especially in the punt game, as the Browns have the significantly better special teams.
Points may come at a premium in this one, so I actually threw the Browns moneyline in a parlay with the Colts moneyline, but will also be on the Browns -2.5/3. Anything at 3 or under is good in my book.[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Matthew Freedman: Lions +2.5
Editor's note: Picks were made prior to the news of Matthew Stafford's injury and the subsequent line move.
Put simply, I don't think the Bears will be able to keep up with the Lions offensively.
In six of their eight games, the Lions have scored at least 24 points, and the Bears defense — though still good — is not the fearsome unit it was last season. Meanwhile, the Bears have scored as many as 24 points just twice.
The Lions are No. 27 with a 61.0 PFF run defense grade, and I expect that the Bears will want to lean heavily on David Montgomery in order to hide their regressing third-year quarterback.
But the running game can only carry an offense so far, and the Bears don’t have a strong running game anyway: They're No. 26 in rushing success rate (per Sharp Football Stats). On defense, the Lions are No. 28 in rushing success rate. So as bad as the Lions are against the run, the Bears aren’t that much better at running the ball.
And on offense, the Lions should be able to move down the field. Since their Week 5 bye, the Lions have dramatically shifted toward the passing game, moving from a 54.6% pass play rate in Weeks 1-4 to a 65.5% mark in Weeks 6-9. That’s significant because I think the Bears are overrated in pass defense. They rank No. 21 in pass success rate allowed, while the Lions are No. 10 in the metric on offense.
I specifically think that wide receiver Kenny Golladay will have his way against the Bears corners. For the season, he's No. 2 with 145.8 air yards and yards after the catch combined and No. 4 with 1.38 end-zone targets per game (per AirYards.com and PFF).
Golladay is getting high-value usage, and he’s making the most of it: Since the bye, he has a 16-397-3 receiving line in four games. And last year, he was 11-168-1 in two games against the Bears.
The connection between Matthew Stafford and Golladay is the real difference in this game. That the Lions also have wide receivers Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola and tight end T.J. Hockenson is just a bonus.
Not that there’s anything wrong with Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson … but there’s definitely something wrong with the guy throwing to him.
I would bet this to a pick’em. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Mike Randle: Steelers +3.5 vs. Rams
Since acquiring safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pittsburgh has tallied a 4-2 record. If you exclude the road game at San Francisco the week Fitzpatrick actually joined the team, the Steelers are 4-1.
The Pittsburgh defense has rounded into form, generating an amazing 20 turnovers in those last six games with Fitzpatrick, including five in that road game against the still undefeated 49ers. Pittsburgh has risen to the fifth-most efficient defense, including sixth-best in pass defense DVOA.
The Rams offense has struggled to find consistency, particularly in road games. Jared Goff’s home/road splits have been well-documented, averaging almost 10 fewer fantasy points per game on the road. The loss of top outside wide receiver Brandin Cooks (concussion) eliminates a valuable offensive weapon.
The Steelers also present a difficult challenge for Todd Gurley. Their traditionally-strong run defense has limited opposing teams to just 3.7 yards per carry and has allowed just four touchdowns to opposing running backs all season.
Pittsburgh’s offense has been bolstered by the return of Mason Rudolph, who has four games of two passing touchdowns this season. Look for versatile running back Jaylen Samuels to continue his prolific pass-catching prowess against the Rams, who rank middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Pittsburgh always plays well in home games with minimal spreads. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 27-15-4 in home games with a spread between +3 and -3 per Bet Labs. Wagering $100 on each game, the bettor would have a profit of $1,135 for a 27.4% ROI.
I’m taking the Steelers as home underdogs with the generous 3.5 points. I would bet this line down to +3. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
