The Kansas City Chiefs head to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders — the only team to hand the reigning Super Bowl champions a loss this season.
Patrick Mahomes and Co. are 7-point road favorites despite the results of their last meeting. Can you trust the Chiefs to cover in this spot? And what should we think about the total?
Our staff details how they're betting the Sunday Night Football spread and over/under.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Picks
Chiefs -7
Matthew Freedman: With the Chiefs, head coach Andy Reid has markedly overperformed in two regular-season situations.
- On Road: 39-19-1 against the spread (ATS) | 32.2% Return on Investment (ROI)
- In Division: 29-15-1 ATS | 29.3% ROI
On the road inside the AFC West, Reid is 17-5 ATS (52.2% ROI).
And it's just an added bonus that the Chiefs are coming off the bye. In his Kansas City tenure, Reid is 7-4 ATS (23.1% ROI) with an extra week to prepare.
As for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, he is 29-14-2 ATS (32.3% ROI) for his career. It's not often a bad idea to bet on the Chiefs.
Brandon Anderson: I loved the Chiefs the last time they played the Raiders.
Vegas has no real defense — particularly no real pass defense — and Kansas City is, well, Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes was primed to pass all over the Raiders in that Week 5 matchup, and the Chiefs' pass defense had played great so far to that point. The only way the Raiders would beat the Chiefs was to put up like 40 points and straight up outscore the Chiefs, and what were the odds of that happening?
Well, it happened, and it's the only time the Chiefs have been beaten this season. And Jon Gruden and the boys were so excited that they took a literal victory lap around Arrowhead Stadium celebrating.
The Chiefs remember, and they just had an extra week to prepare something extra special for the Raiders.
Las Vegas still doesn’t play much D, and Kansas City has averaged 35 points per game against Las Vegas over the last five meetings. The Chiefs are going to score on this defense, so the Raiders might need another 40 to keep up the pace.
The Chiefs have won 10 of their last 12 against this team, and remember that extra week? Perhaps you forgot that Reid is 18-3 straight up coming off a bye. He’s basically Mario star invincible. Oh, and in case you missed it, the Raiders had about half their defense on the COVID-19 list all week and are missing their best offensive lineman again too.
The Chiefs typically dominate the Raiders and everything lines up for them to do so again here. My eyes lit up when I saw this matchup on the schedule coming out of the bye. Mahomes is going to put on a Sunday night show.
Chiefs-Raiders Under 57
Chris Raybon: Reid’s bye week proficiency and the revenge narrative puts the trends in favor of the Chiefs on the spread, but I see more value on the total. The over/under closed at 54.5 in the first matchup, but currently sits 1.5 points higher at most sportsbooks, and I’m not sure that is justified.
The Raiders look to have dodged a bullet on defense, with only defensive lineman Clelin Ferrell and linebacker Cory Littleton remaining in the COVID-19 list after over half-dozen members of the defense were placed on the list earlier in the week.
After an overly pass-heavy game plan did them in the first time around and with a banged up receiving corps, the Chiefs are likely to employ a more run-heavy game plan this time around. When they do throw, the Raiders will likely continue to sit back in coverage on defense, which has proven to be more successful than the alternative this season against Mahomes.
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders are a good bet to go run-heavy as well, and they’re unlikely to pop off explosive plays at anywhere near the same rate that they did in the first meeting.
Divisional matchups tend to be tighter the second time around, often resulting in lower-scoring games. According to our Bet Labs data, divisional over/unders of 45 or more from November on have gone under at a 59.3% clip by an average of 2.42 points per game.
I would bet this down to under 55.5 points.
