The Tennessee Titans host the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South showdown on Thursday Night Football. (Yes, we finally should have a good Thursday night game — fingers crossed.)
With the division lead on the line, the spread sits somewhere between the Titans -1 and Colts -1 depending on the sportsbook (compare real-time odds here), but our staff hasn't zeroed in on a side. Find out how they're betting this primetime matchup below with their picks.
NFL Picks: Colts vs. Titans
Chris Raybon: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill Over 1.5 TD Passes (-121)
This is a simple matchup fade at great odds.
Tannehill has thrown two or more touchdown passes in 16-of-18 starts as a Titan. Sure, the Colts are allowing only 1.25 passing TDs per game, but it’s not as impressive given the slate of quarterbacks they’ve faced: Gardner Minshew, Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Nick Foles, Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson.
This is rated as a perfect 10 out of 10 in our FantasyLabs Player Props tool, and other 10-rated props have hit at a 61% win rate so far this season.
I would bet this over up to -150 (60% implied probability).
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Brandon Anderson: Colts +100 ML
We're about to hit a stretch of good Thursday Night Football matchups: Packers-49ers didn’t live up to billing last week with all the injuries, but Colts-Titans is for the AFC South division lead, then we get Cardinals-Seahawks and Ravens-Steelers over the next two Thursdays.
Three straight big time divisional battles with huge playoff implications? Yes, please.
This Indianapolis and Tennessee game matches strength on strength, with the Titans' really good offense up against a great Colts defense that’s been even better with Darius Leonard back healthy. Indianapolis has the No. 2 ranked run defense by Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and the Colts have held Derrick Henry to fewer than 100 yards in five of the last six meetings.
The other side of the ball is weakness vs. weakness, with neither the Colts offense nor Titans defense playing particularly impressively. Both of these teams have looked really good at times, but very tepid at others.
Both teams are healthy, and the nature of the matchup looks very much like a toss-up, just like the 1-point spread would suggest (shop real-time lines here).
Philip Rivers has had some clunkers but is at his worst against pressure, and the Titans do not pressure the quarterback well. That could give Indianapolis a slight advantage, and history is on the Colts’ side: They've dominated this matchup over the past decade, winning 19 of the last 23 meetings, and the only Titans wins have come against Jacoby Brissett (x3) and Curtis Painter.
Indianapolis blew a tire last week against Baltimore, but the Colts can take the division lead with a win here. Bet on Rivers and history and find the best price you can get on a Colts moneyline to find a way to win.
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Mike Randle: Colts TE Trey Burton Over 2.5 Rec
Jack Doyle (concussion) has already been ruled out while fellow tight end Mo Alie-Cox is listed as questionable (knee). Alie-Cox has been listed on the injury report each week since the Week 7 bye. He tallied three receptions in each of the past two weeks, but the short turnaround could make him limited or miss the game entirely.
That leaves Burton as the lone healthy tight end against a Titans defense that has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to the position. Burton’s connection with head coach Frank Reich from their time in Philadelphia has provided Burton a rebirth in this Colts offense — he's seen at least four targets in every game this season, and has seen a target on 15.7% of his snaps (fourth-highest among all tight ends).
This is a 10-rated prop on our Fantasy Labs Player Prop Tool, which have hit at a 60% rate the past two seasons.
There is little chance of a blowout, keeping both offenses engaged through all four quarters.
Tonight is also the first game Burton has played without Doyle all season, and there is a chance Alie-Cox misses as well. I grabbed this line at over 2.5 receptions and would bet it up to 3.5 if Alie-Cox is ruled out.
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