Sunday NFL Picks
Titans +6.5 at Ravens
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Odds
Both of these teams are banged up, so I don’t think the line should be lopsided in the Ravens' favor this much.
Baltimore will be without key defensive lineman Calais Campbell (calf, doubtful) and Brandon Williams (knee, doubtful), which hurts them in the run game against Derrick Henry. This should allow Tennessee to mitigate its offensive injuries and stay in reasonable down-and-distance, which should ultimately give their second-ranked red zone offense opportunities to exploit a Ravens red zone defense that ranks last in the NFL with a 76.2% conversion rate allowed.
Lamar Jackson is 11-5 ATS on the road but tends to be overvalued at home, where the Ravens have posted an ATS record of 6-9 in his starts.
Bet down to: Titans +6
Eagles +3.5 at Browns
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Odds
The Browns are 6-3 while the Eagles are 3-5-1, yet the Eagles’ point differential of -29 is only one point worse than Cleveland’s -28 mark.
The Eagles match up well here, as their 25.3% pressure rate is sixth-best, while Baker Mayfield’s 30.8 rating under pressure ranks 38th of 39 qualifiers, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Eagles are also capable of containing the Browns on the ground. The Eagles rank second in yards per carry allowed to running backs (3.37), and the defensive line ranks fourth in Adjusted Line Yards allowed (3.55).
Carson Wentz has been awful this season, but I don’t trust him any less than Mayfield in this matchup, as the Browns defense will be without Myles Garrett (reserve/COVID-19) and ranks 20th in points allowed per game (27.1) and 18th in Football Outsiders' DVOA despite benefiting from two straight “wind” games at home in which they gave up a combined 23 points.
Bet down to: Eagles +3
Bengals +1.5 at Washington
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Odds
This is undoubtedly a matchup between two bad teams — the Bengals enter Week 11 with a 2-6-1 record while the Football Team clocks in at 2-7 —
but I think Cincinnati is undervalued compared to each team’s strength of schedule.
Over the past five weeks, Washington has lost twice to the 3-7 Giants and also were defeated by the 4-5 Lions. The Football Team’s last two games saw them get outscored 20-3 in the first half by the Giants and 24-3 in the first half by Detorit, a combined 47-6 margin.
Meanwhile, five of the Bengals' six losses have come at the hands of 8-0 Pittsburgh, 6-3 Baltimore, 6-3 Indianapolis and 6-3 Cleveland (twice) with the sixth coming after a missed chip-shot field goal against a 2-8 Chargers team that is much better than their record.
The Bengals offense will benefit from getting back its two top tackles, Bobby Hart and Jonah Williams, who both practiced in full and don’t carry an injury designation.
This also fits one of our Bet Labs systems, which has produced a 59% win rate since 2003:
Bet down to: Bengals PK
Falcons +3.5 at Saints
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Odds
The Falcons are playing a lot better under interim coach Raheem Morris, coming a Todd Gurley TD away from a perfect 4-0 record. (Yes, you read that right: If Gurley would have stopped short of the end zone against the Lions, Atlanta could have run out the clock).
The improvement has been particularly notable on defense, where Atlanta is allowing 22.5 points per game under Morris after allowing 32.2 under Dan Quinn.
With the inexperienced Taysom Hill starting at quarterback and the turnover-prone Jameis Winston behind him, New Orleans’ ability to outscore Atlanta shouldn’t be taken for granted, especially since Atlanta is getting dangerous wide receiver Calvin Ridley back to take pressure off of Julio Jones while the Saints’ top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore (abdomen, questionable), is not 100%.
The Saints have been mostly excellent in head coach Sean Payton’s tenure, which has allowed sportsbooks to prey on bettors overconfident in home-field advantage by inflating their lines at home.
Road underdogs at New Orleans are 3-2 ATS this season and have finished with a winning record ATS in five of the past six seasons for an overall record of 26-19-1 (57.8%) since 2014 (30-19-1; 61.2% including postseason).
Bet down to: Falcons +3
Dolphins -3.5 at Broncos
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET | More Odds
This isn’t about Tua Tagovailoa, it’s about Miami’s decisive edge in the other two facets. The Dolphins rank 13th in defensive DVOA while the Broncos are dead last on offense, and Miami ranks first on special teams while Denver is 26th.
This should allow Tagovailoa to continue to game manage the offense effectively despite facing a Broncos defense that has struggled of late but still ranks 11th in DVOA.
Brian Flores is probably the NFL’s most underrated coach. Flores inherited an undermanned team that was routinely a huge underdog early in his career, but when the Dolphins are a favorite or an underdog by under 11 points, he is 12-5 ATS, including a perfect 2-0 record as a favorite.
I expect Flores to remain perfect as a favorite.
Bet up to: Dolphins -4
Chiefs-Raiders Under 57
Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET | More Odds
Andy Reid’s bye week proficiency and the revenge narrative puts the trends in favor of the Chiefs on the spread, but picking a team to win by more than 8 on the road after it lost to the same team by 8 at home is dicey.
I see more value on the total. The over/under closed at 54.5 in the first matchup, but currently sits 2 points higher at most sportsbooks, and I’m not sure that is justified.
The Raiders look to have dodged a bullet on defense, with only defensive lineman Clelin Ferrell and linebacker Cory Littleton remaining in the COVID-19 list after over half-dozen members of the defense were placed on the list earlier in the week.
After an overly pass-heavy game plan did them in the first time around and with a banged up receiving corps, the Chiefs are likely to employ a more run-heavy game plan this time around. When they do throw, the Raiders will likely continue to sit back in coverage on defense, which has proven to be more successful than the alternative this season against Mahomes.
On the other side of the ball, the Raiders are a good bet to go run-heavy as well, and they’re unlikely to pop off explosive plays at anywhere near the same rate that they did in the first meeting.
Divisional matchups tend to be tighter the second time around, often resulting in lower-scoring games. According to our Bet Labs data, Divisional over/unders of 45 or more from November on have gone under at a 59.3% clip by an average of 2.42 points per game.
Bet down to: Under 55.5
