We resume the final week of the preseason with three matchups for my NFL picks this Friday.
Jaguars-Falcons and Dolphins-Buccaneers will kick off the action in the early window, and then we'll wrap up with Raiders-49ers at 10 p.m. ET.
Make sure you've join our Action Discord as that’s where I’m discussing what I’m looking for/timing for my official plays that I will post in the Action App.
NFL Picks for Friday, August 23
Jaguars vs. Falcons
Jaguars vs Falcons: Jacksonville Has Betting Edge
Tonight’s preseason game features two teams with very different approaches. The Jaguars will treat this as a true dress rehearsal, with Trevor Lawrence and the starters expected to play most of the first half. Once Doug Pederson pulls his starters, Mac Jones will likely take over for the Jaguars, potentially playing the remainder of the game. Although the team recently signed E.J. Perry, he seems to be more of an emergency option, and if he plays, it would likely be in the fourth quarter.
On the other side, the Falcons are resting their starters, including rookie backup QB Michael Penix Jr. It might seem surprising that Raheem Morris is content with giving a rookie QB, who isn’t expected to see much action this season unless Kirk Cousins is injured, only 16 dropbacks in Week 1. This approach indicates that Morris isn’t using the preseason to get reps for his first or even second teamers.
Instead, we should see Taylor Heinicke start and play most of the first half before giving way to UDFA John Paddock, who has struggled in the preseason and is one of the lowest-graded QBs in my chart this week.
The Jaguars are deservedly big favorites at -7.5, with a -6.5 line for the first half, suggesting that most of their edge will be in the first half. While this is largely true, I believe the Jaguars will maintain a significant advantage in the second half when it’s Mac Jones facing off against John Paddock. Despite his struggles in his first three seasons, Jones is an above-average (preseason) QB who will see substantial playing time in the second half. He has completed 73% of his passes and is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, making him far more polished than Paddock, who is one of the weakest QBs in the preseason.
Live Betting Edge: Jaguars 2H ML
The angle: I'm looking to back the Jaguars in the second half, particularly when the market may overlook the fact that they will still hold a significant edge in the back half of the game. This may also come once Trevor Lawrence leaves the game and why it’s important to join our discord to hear my live thoughts and follow me in the app to get an alert if/when I lock in any plays.
Dolphins vs. Buccaneers
Dolphins vs. Buccaneers: Fade Miami Without Tua
It’s unclear whether Tua Tagovailoa will start tonight for the Dolphins. Although Mike McDaniel has mentioned wanting some starters to see playing time, I’m guessing Tagovailoa won’t be one of them. This likely means Skylar Thompson and Mike White will each play about a half. It doesn’t really matter which QB gets the start, as I have both graded as low-end backups to high-end QB3s.
On the Buccaneers' side, Todd Bowles has stated he wants his starters to see some action tonight, but he hasn’t specified for how long. My guess is we’ll see Baker Mayfield and the starting offense for 1-3 drives. If they score a touchdown on their opening drive, that might be it for them. As a result, we could see the offense be fairly aggressive, looking to score quickly and end the preseason on a high note. Baker Mayfield has always performed well in the preseason, and I expect him to do so tonight as well. Once Mayfield is done, Kyle Trask will likely finish out the first half. Trask has played well enough this preseason for me to grade him as a mid-range backup, and he should maintain the Bucs' edge against either Skylar Thompson or Mike White.
The Dolphins are facing an unusual situation where almost their entire running back depth chart is expected to be sidelined tonight due to rest or injuries. They recently signed Anthony McFarland, but since he joined the team just a few days ago, he might be forced to take nearly every snap tonight. McFarland may not be fully up to speed on the playbook, which could impact his effectiveness as a runner and potentially lead to missed pass-blocking assignments at crucial moments. Additionally, we could see WR Je'Quan Burton being used in the backfield as a running back again this week. This unusual situation could give the Buccaneers an edge in tonight’s matchup.
Koerner's Betting Look: Bucs 1H -1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
The play: I’m taking the Bucs -1.5 in the first half here. I believe their biggest edge will be in the first half, and I’m comfortable backing them at this key number, with 3 grading as a win. This line could move up to 3 if it’s announced that Tua won’t be suiting up tonight (which, again, is my speculation).
49ers vs. Raiders
Raiders vs. 49ers: Live Betting Angle to Watch
Kyle Shanahan has stated that he wants his starters to play tonight, so we should expect Brock Purdy and the first-team offense to play most of the first quarter and possibly into the second. After a poor performance last week, Purdy will be looking to bounce back and finish the preseason on a positive note. Once Purdy is done, we’ll likely see Joshua Dobbs and Brandon Allen split the remaining snaps, with a possibility that rookie Tanner Mordecai could close out the game in the fourth quarter.
On the Raiders' side, they settled their Week 1 QB battle last week, with Gardner Minshew winning the starting job. Minshew, along with backup Aidan O’Connell, will be rested tonight. This means Carter Bradley will start, followed by Nathan Peterman in the second half.
The 49ers are -8.5 for the game and -7 for the first half, clearly indicating that most of their edge is expected to come in the first half. While this is largely true, it’s worth noting that Joshua Dobbs and Brandon Allen have both played well throughout the preseason. I believe the market might be overlooking the fact that the 49ers will still maintain a decent edge after Brock Purdy and the starters are pulled. I may look to back the 49ers when this happens, especially if there’s a market overcorrection. Either way, the 49ers are worth considering during the second quarter or for the second half.
Koerner's Live Betting Look: 49ers
Consider backing the 49ers once Brock Purdy leaves the game if the market overcorrects (or when I think it has overcorrected).
