We begin the final week of the preseason with two matchups for my NFL picks for this Thursday doubleheader.
The Colts and Bengals will face off tonight, while the Caleb Williams-less Bears will take on the Chiefs. Let's kick off the four days of NFL action with my expert picks for tonight's pair of games.
Make sure you've join our Action Discord as that’s where I’m discussing what I’m looking for/timing for my official plays that I will post in the Action App.
NFL Picks for Thursday Night
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Colts vs. Bengals
Colts-Bengals First Half: Anthony Richardson vs. Logan Woodside
The Colts and Bengals will kick off the action and both teams will be taking a completely different approach to tonight’s preseason Week 3 matchup.
The Colts will be playing Anthony Richardson and the starters are expected to play around a quarter and a half tonight. Richardson has only dropped back five times this preseason but didn’t look sharp and probably won’t lean on his rushing ability as much as he would in the regular season.
That said, playing with the first-string offense and utilizing the starting defense should give the Colts a big edge in the first half. We might also see Joe Flacco under center to close out the first half once Richardson is done.
Meanwhile, the Bengals will not only be resting Joe Burrow and the rest of their starters, but even backup quarterback Jake Browning is expected to miss the action tonight due to a rib injury. That means we should see third-string QB Logan Woodside get the start and play the entire first half for Cincinnati.
Woodside has played well over the first two weeks of the preseason, completing 68% of his passes and averaging 7.6 yards per attempt. He also has the ability to scramble, which is even more valuable in the preseason.
The 29-year-old QB might be able to keep things close in the first half, but it is a concern that the Bengals even gave wide receivers like Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas starter treatment last week. Cincinnati seems much more willing to roll with third-stringers out of the gate.
Edge: Colts
The Colts are -6.5 for the entire game and -6.5 for the 1H. I think it makes sense the Colts are massive favorites for the 1H, but the market seems to be implying the second will be more even. Let’s dive into it.
Colts-Bengals Second Half: Woodside & Lombardi vs. Ehlinger/Slovis/Bean
Woodside will likely be starting the second half as well and then get replaced by Rocky Lombardi in the third or fourth quarter. I have Lombardi graded as one of the worst QBs expected to get snaps this week. He dropped back nine times last week and essentially confirmed my prior predictions, completing just 50% of his passes and averaging 4.1 yards an attempt.
Things will look different for the Colts in the second half. They will turn to their backups and we could see preseason legend Sam Ehlinger start the second half for Indy. He’s been sharp once again this preseason, completing 69% of his passes with 9.1 yards per attempt and has rushing upside. He may play the entire third quarter before giving way to some combo of Kedon Slovis and Jason Bean. Slovis and Bean have been a mixed bag, but they still offer an edge over Rocky Lombardi.
I think it’s worth seeing if the market offers the Colts +0.5 for the second half. I always love getting a half point for a half in preseason, especially when I expect to scoring to be hard to come by, but there is around a 10% chance we see a tie in the second half
Koerner's Betting Look: Colts 2H ML
If the market is offering the Colts -0.5, I’ll just go with the moneyline for the 2H to avoid a loss if there is a tie. All of this could change if other factors pop up that would throw me off this play. As always, follow along on Discord for my latest musings.
Bears vs. Chiefs
Bears-Chiefs Battle of the Backups
Things will look different for our second feature as both the Bears and Chiefs are expected to rest their starters, so we won’t see Caleb Williams or Patrick Mahomes tonight.
For Kansas City, we should see Carson Wentz start and play most of the first quarter. Once Wentz is done, Chris Oladokun should come in and finish out the half and potentially play most of the third quarter as well. Oladokun has looked pretty good this preseason and last preseason when he was a rookie. However, he could have his hands full against against a Bears defense that has allowed just 8.7 yards a game in three games so far.
Chicago has been excellent in all three phases of pass rush, run defense and coverage. A lot of the same players will be in there again today. We will then see Ian Book come in late in the third and close out the game.
As for the Bears offense, we won’t be seeing Caleb Williams or other starters on the field, but Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and rookie Austin Reed have been excellent this preseason. All three QBs either have a 70%+ completion rate or are averaging 10+ yards an attempt. The run game could be solid as we may see Khalil Herbert, plus rookie Ian Wheeler has been impressive.
Koerner's Betting Look: Bears -1
The Bears are one of the most complete preseason teams right now and tonight is the last time we can invest in them. I'm going with them for the full game at -1. I'd play this to -2.5.
