A week after the most exciting NFL slate of the season that featured four excellent matchups spread out throughout the day, three of the league’s most exciting watches have a bye week. The Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins have the week off in Week 10, as well as the Los Angeles Rams, leaving 14 matchups on the Week 10 NFL card.
The Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens and Bengals were the big winners of the marquee matchups in Week 9. Couple that with the late drama provided by Joshua Dobbs and C.J. Stroud, and it’ll be hard for Week 10 to top last week.
The Ravens and Bengals enter Week 10 in a tricky spot given that both have a crucial Week 11 matchup looming in Baltimore next Thursday night.
Before we get there, let’s take a glance at all 14 matchups in Week 10, starting with a thrilling Panthers-Bears contest on Thursday Night Football.
My picks are 27-19-2 (58.7%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 10 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Panthers vs. Bears
It wouldn’t be an NFL game in 2023 without some quarterback uncertainty mixed in. Justin Fields was listed as a limited participant in practice on Tuesday and is day-to-day headed into Thursday night.
The Panthers are still the league’s worst run defense for the year, but they did a solid job of slowing down the Colts on Sunday. The Colts ran the ball 25 times with their two running backs and managed just 73 yards.
Justin Fields would be a big part of the rushing effectiveness and help Chicago there, but Tyson Bagent has actually held his own in this offense as the backup.
Of 40 quarterbacks with at least 60 dropbacks this season, Bagent is 34th in EPA per play and yet is surprisingly seventh in Success Rate. The turnovers have been a real issue for Bagent, especially once the Bears fall behind in games and he’s forced to throw the ball down the field more often.
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If you remove turnovers from the EPA numbers, Bagent is 11th in efficiency. Fields is 27th out of 40 in Success Rate, which is a more stable predictor than EPA in smaller samples.
With the Bears priced as a solid home favorite, you’d expect a more favorable game script for Bagent to run this offense. However, his turnover-prone play makes him a risk as a favorite. The Panthers will be without their top pass rusher, Brian Burns, after Frank Reich said on Tuesday that Burns has a concussion.
Primetime unders seem to be winning 105% of the time this season (actual number is 75%), but just remember that every trend is a trend until it isn’t anymore — many have survivorship bias.
Verdict: Pass
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The Passes
Saints vs. Vikings
Dobbs' performance on Sunday against Atlanta is the best story of the NFL season to date. He’ll get an entire week to actually practice with this group, and I’m really interested to see what that looks like come Sunday.
His past stints in Tennessee and Arizona were terrible offensive situations with defense-first head coaches and no offensive lines. Now he’ll have a plus offensive coach, a quality offensive line and real offensive weapons. Justin Jefferson is still probably not returning, but the Saints offense isn’t consistent enough to warrant this price on the road.
The Vikings are a high-variance team because of Dobbs, but they are in an excellent teaser spot against a Saints team that cannot separate because of its offensive woes.
Verdict: Pass, Bet Minnesota in Teasers
Titans vs. Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are going to bring a lot of pressure, and Will Levis’ pocket awareness and ability to avoid taking sacks when pressured will be a real test in this matchup. If Levis can get through progressions, there are holes down the field that he can exploit with his big arm.
However, Levis remains dead last in Success Rate among all quarterbacks thus far. The offensive line is going to be under duress, but the Buccaneers' inability to generate pressure with four will force Todd Bowles to bring a lot of blitzes.
The Buccaneers offense found some early-down form against the Texans for the first time all season, but the Bucs also were completely dominated from a box-score perspective in that game. These two teams are even for me, and the market is spot on. At +3, I’d bet Tennessee.
Verdict: Pass
Lions vs. Chargers
The bye week came at the perfect time for the Lions, who had a routine victory against the Raiders on Monday Night Football prior to their off week.
David Montgomery will return to partner with the improving rookie Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield. Amon-Ra St. Brown will be fully healthy off his injury and illness that plagued him in the weeks leading into the bye. The Lions will also get Jared Goff in great weather and a stadium he’s familiar with.
This game is such a great recipe for offense, especially when you consider the Chargers are so pass-heavy and the Lions' holes exist almost exclusively in the secondary. With that being said, the market is too high for me to bet the over here and has moved up early in the week.
Verdict: Pass
Cowboys vs. Giants
An aggressive Dallas defense that often creates havoc should dominate Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants' sieve of an offensive line.
The Cowboys are going to be angry following the last-minute meltdown in Philadelphia, and Mike McCarthy routinely leaves his starters in far too long in blowouts.
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The Giants have absolutely zero advantages anywhere in this matchup. Dallas opened at -13.5, which was far too short, but think about this matchup this way: Dak Prescott is playing at an elite level in the last month after a poor start to the year, and Dallas can probably pick its score.
If books offered -110 on whether the Giants offense or Cowboys defense would score more touchdowns, which would you take? I’m only half kidding.
Verdict: Pass
Broncos vs. Bills
You’re going to see a lot of people write off the Bills because of the loss on Sunday night in Cincinnati. At 5-4, it certainly hasn’t been the start they hoped for.
Buffalo was at the top of the league after that Miami win, but the sheen has come off this club entirely. The Bills are dead last in DVOA on defense in the last month. I’ve written every week in this column about how much the market was overrating the Bills defense after key injuries.
On the other side of the ball, the market might be undervaluing Denver’s defense after a historically poor start to the season. Defensive success week to week and year to year is considerably more volatile overall.
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Players and schemes change a lot more on defense, and it’s much more at the mercy of the opposing offense. The Broncos defense is exactly at the league average since Week 5, and that includes two games against the Chiefs.
The Bills defense is trending down, while the Broncos defense is trending up. The market is onto this though, and Buffalo’s offense is still an elite unit by every metric.
Even if Ken Dorsey’s play calling and scheme are middling and the Bills are too reliant on Stefon Diggs, I will lay it with Buffalo if it gets to -6.5 or -7. Otherwise, I’ll pass. The Bills are a good Wong teaser option, maybe with the Vikings.
Verdict: Pass, Bet Buffalo in Teasers
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The Leans
49ers vs. Jaguars
I’m of the belief that Brock Purdy was not 100% healthy in his poor performance before the bye week. Purdy suffered a concussion late in the game against Minnesota but stayed in the game and made multiple key mistakes that cost San Francisco a chance at the win.
He went into the concussion protocol a day after the game and then somehow is still the only player in the NFL to clear the protocol within a week and start the next game. He proceeded to hit his head pretty hard against Cincinnati and grab his head again immediately after.
You can criticize a lot about Purdy, but his decision-making previously was consistently solid in this Kyle Shanahan offense. It wasn’t good in the games after the concussion.
It’s fair to wonder if that was just a blip for him, and he’ll be healthier now after the bye week. The 49ers were really banged up headed into the bye, which came at the perfect time for them.
As for the Jaguars, I still don’t know what to make of their offense. The best way to attack the 49ers is to lean on them in the run game, but the Jaguars are so pass-heavy. Both offenses are off the bye and generally perform well on the script, so I don't mind a first-quarter over or first-half over in this matchup.
With that being said, Trevor Lawrence’s efficiency numbers are still relatively mediocre and the Jaguars struggle to run the ball in the red zone, which has made them a bit too one-dimensional. If the 49ers drop back to -2.5, I’m going to bet them on the spread.
Verdict: Lean 49ers -2.5
Browns vs. Ravens
2023 has been the year of the under, and no two teams display this better than Cleveland and Baltimore. The Ravens and Browns have been the two best defenses in the NFL to this point, and Cleveland’s numbers are borderline historic. If I had more faith in the health and performance of Deshaun Watson, I would buy at the floor and take the over here at a ridiculously low total of 37.5 points.
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All you have to do is look at some of the quarterbacks these teams have faced, and you can see why the defensive numbers might be a bit inflated. I believe a lot more in Baltimore’s numbers because the Ravens just totally shut down the Lions and Seahawks in their last three games.
Baltimore’s offense is operating at too high of a level overall for the total to be this low though. The Ravens averaged 9.1 yards per play against the Lions and 6.9 yards against the Seahawks, two defenses that also had inflated numbers because of weak opposing quarterback play.
Verdict: Lean Over 37.5, Lean Baltimore Team Total Over 21.5
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Kyler Murray makes his return for the Cardinals on Sunday, but this feels like a classic "sell the news" spot as the market overreacts to his return. Murray’s passing-success numbers from the pocket have always lagged behind his ability to create plays out of structure with his legs and mobility.
Fresh off an ACL tear, I can’t imagine that Murray will just walk onto the field and be close to his old self athletically. Even his old self was a consistently league-average producer from an EPA perspective.
Don’t look now, but the Falcons are a top-five defense in the NFL by Success Rate. There are emerging questions about how Atlanta keeps losing all of these close games despite outplaying their opponents.
Some are blaming Arthur Smith, and while his in-game management and player usage is certainly not optimal, it’s much more likely to just be variance. The Falcons offense will have a lot more success moving the ball, and we’ll look back and wonder why a league-average team was only laying 1.5 points to Arizona.
Verdict: Lean Atlanta -1.5
Jets vs. Raiders
It’s fun to think about all of the hypotheticals this game could have featured. The Jets reportedly had significant interest in Jimmy Garoppolo; longtime Patriots assistant Josh McDaniels could have coached against the Jets; Aaron Rodgers could have paired with an elite Jets defense near the top of the AFC.
Instead, we’ve got Zach Wilson, Aidan O’Connell and Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce. The Raiders had a nice rally-around-the-new-guy win last week against the essentially quarterback-less Giants. Now, they’ll face the essentially quarterback-less Jets.
Given the quality of the quarterbacks in this game and the quality of the pass rushers, this matchup could be near an NFL record for sacks combined. The single-game, single-team record is 14, in case you were wondering.
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The one clear potential advantage in this entire game is that the Jets defense grades out miles better overall. Forget that their elite secondary has now shut down Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts — the Jets actually have a solid run defense. Las Vegas is 28th in EPA per Rush Allowed and 30th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
This game probably comes down to whichever quarterback makes fewer mistakes. Laying points with Zach Wilson should be almost impossible, but that’s what I’d bet if I had to in this matchup.
Verdict: Lean Jets -1
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The Plays
Patriots vs. Colts
The Colts are still the only team in the NFL to score at least 20 points in every game this season. Given Gardner Minshew's recent regression, it’s only a matter of time before that’s no longer true, and Sunday in Germany may finally be the time.
The Colts overs have been cashing left and right under Shane Steichen, but last week’s close at 44 against a terrible Carolina offense is a sign that we’ve reached the peak of the market on Steichen/Colts totals.
The game ended 27-13, but only because Bryce Young threw two pick-sixes to Kenny Moore II, and thus the Colts defense itself outscored the Panthers. Indianapolis was inept offensively with 195 total yards, 3.5 yards per play and fewer than three yards per carry.
Speed has given the Patriots defense trouble all year, and the Colts' best wide receiver from a speed/separation standpoint is rookie Josh Downs. Downs left the game early in Week 9 with a knee issue, a continuation of the injury that nearly led to him missing the game.
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If Downs is out, the Colts will have no way to stretch this mediocre Patriots defense down the field. The Patriots defense continues to perform solidly when the offense hasn’t committed multiple back-breaking turnovers to put them in extremely negative game scripts.
The biggest problem for the Colts of late has been overcoming all of the injuries in the secondary. The inexperience has led to a lot of holes in coverage, but New England, like Carolina last week, is one of the offenses least equipped to exploit this weakness.
I know the Pace is really high for these two teams (first and second in NFL), but this total is still too high at 43.5 in Germany.
Packers vs. Steelers
Mike Tomlin snapped back at a reporter who asked why Kenny Pickett has struggled so much in the first three quarters of games this season (and last year, too). Tomlin chose to highlight Pickett’s success in the fourth quarter, which was on full display in the win against Tennessee on Thursday Night Football last week.
Pickett is dead last in EPA + CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) composite in the first three quarters and fourth to last in Success Rate. Pickett is then eighth in Success Rate and seventh in EPA per play in the fourth.
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The Steelers have a knack for hanging around in games and then executing just enough in the fourth quarter to stay competitive and play close games. That makes them a consistently live underdog, but how is Pittsburgh laying a field goal or more here?
The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season. The offense is 18th in DVOA and just 22nd in rush DVOA, the primary weakness of the Packers defense.
Pittsburgh has a marginally worse Offensive Success Rate and a marginally better Defensive Success Rate. The Steelers are not that much better than the Packers to warrant this line being a full three points.
Texans vs. Bengals
Are there two offenses in the entire NFL receiving more love right now than the Texans and Bengals? Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud are the current darlings after the Bengals' massive Sunday Night Football win and Stroud’s historic day against a weak Tampa Bay defense that was shorthanded in the secondary.
Next up for Stroud is arguably the biggest test he’s seen since his debut game in Baltimore.
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No defensive coordinator in football has done a better job of befuddling and slowing down top quarterbacks than Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. As good as Stroud was last week, remember that his offense had 4.6 yards per attempt in a 15-13 loss in Carolina the week prior.
The Bengals are dealing with receiver injuries and could be without Ja’Marr Chase after his back issue flared up. I expect Anarumo to slow down this Houston offense and the Bengals to have one eye on Thursday’s tilt with Baltimore. As good as these offenses have been overall, this total is inflated.
Commanders vs. Seahawks
Trading their two best pass rushers didn’t stop the Commanders from a solid defensive performance against the poor Patriots offense, but the lack of a pass rush is much more likely to play a factor against Geno Smith and the Seahawks this weekend.
The Seahawks were rightfully downgraded off that horrendous performance in Baltimore where the Ravens completely took apart the Shane Waldron offense, but I think the market went too far with this line.
I still think this line should be a touchdown in Seattle as the Seahawks aim to bounce back. The Commanders defense struggled to deal with DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown because they didn't pressure Jalen Hurts often enough.
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Geno Smith is completing 72.5% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt from a clean pocket this season, and the Seattle offense is still a top-seven unit on early downs.
His numbers have crumbled under pressure this year — a major area of regression — but his post-snap processing is still elite, and there will be a ton of big windows to exploit against Washington.
Seattle has quietly put together a solid pass rush, and that’s trouble for Sam Howell, who still takes far too many sacks. The Seahawks are ninth in Pass Rush Win Rate and PFF Pass Rush Grade.
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