With Thanksgiving in the past, the calendar turns to December, and the NFL end game comes into clear vision.
It's about the time of the year when things really seem to crystalize around the league.
The NFC is down to the Lions and Eagles; the AFC is the Chiefs and Bills, maybe not in that order, with the Steelers and Ravens breathing down their necks. Josh Allen is the MVP front-runner, and Saquon Barkley is running away with OPOY.
Finally, it feels like we know a few things around the NFL with one month to go — but things can change in a hurry, and that feeling of overconfidence is exactly why this is the perfect time to invest in some NFL future long shots.
I've got three long-shot bets below — one division bet, one conference winner, and one Rookie of the Year pick — all priced at bad numbers and worth investing in. Let's dig in.
NFL Picks: Long-Shot Futures
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Los Angeles Chargers To Win the AFC West (+1600)
The Chargers had absolutely no business winning on Sunday.
L.A. had only 187 yards of offense against a pitiful Atlanta defense, including just 27 yards on 14 plays over its final six drives, but the defense did the job, intercepting Kirk Cousins four times to steal a victory.
By hook or crook, the Chargers have now won five of their last six and sit at 8-4. They're effectively locks to make the playoffs at this point — but could the Chargers be more than that?
L.A. travels to Kansas City this week to take on the mighty Chiefs, but Kansas City remains one of the weakest 11-1 teams we've ever seen.
The Chiefs rank 12th in season-long DVOA, painting this team as much more playoff contender than a Super Bowl favorite. The offense hasn't been explosive all season, and the defense has slowly faded as the season has gone along, barely even top half of the league in many metrics over the last month and a half. This defense misses CB Jaylen Watson, and a once stout offensive line is a sieve at both tackles.
The Chiefs keep winning one-score games, and maybe that will just happen forever with Patrick Mahomes, but history says otherwise. Kansas City has road games left against the Browns, Steelers, and Broncos and let's face it — those are all losable games for this team. As is a home game against the Texans, and so is the matchup this week against the Chargers.
Those pretty much all look like one-score games at this point, and most one-score games are coin flips that come down to a couple of plays. What if Kansas City's luck runs out? That 11-1 record could easily stumble to 14-3 or even 13-4 or 12-5 and leave the door cracked.
The Chargers are +170 on the moneyline in Kansas City this Sunday night, and L.A. should have every chance to win that game. I'm expecting a close, low-scoring game and already bet the under, and that means it could come down to a few plays late. Are you positive the Chiefs have the coaching staff you trust more in that spot? Are you sure they have the better QB right now?
If L.A. does win that game, the Chargers move to 9-4 versus 11-2 for the Chiefs, and that puts the division firmly in play. L.A. would face tough home games against the Bucs and Broncos next, but win those and suddenly the Chargers are set up to win out at New England and Las Vegas and get to 13-4. Even losing to the Bucs would leave the division in play.
Both the Chargers and Chiefs have a key Broncos game left, with Denver, chasing the final AFC playoff spot, but L.A.'s game is at home while Kansas City travels to Denver. The Chargers have the better schedule and, frankly, are playing better football. The defense is better, the offensive line is better, and right now, Justin Herbert is playing better football than Patrick Mahomes.
None of that will matter if the Chargers can't get the win Sunday night. But rather than playing the +170 moneyline, you should bet L.A. at +1600 to win the AFC West (DraftKings).
Things can change in a hurry in the NFL. The Eagles were 10-1 entering December last season after winning a string of one-score games, then lost six of seven to end the season in ignominious fashion.
Kansas City's +500 Super Bowl odds right now are absurd, a testament to just how scared we all are to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the postseason.
But what if we don't have to fade Pat in the postseason? Fade the regular season by buying a Chargers ticket at +1600 to come back and steal the division.
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Arizona Cardinals To Win the NFC (+5000)
Sunday was not a great day for Cardinals fans.
Arizona incorrectly settled for a late field goal to go up six on Minnesota before giving up a winning touchdown to lose by one, and the division rival Seahawks and Rams both made big comebacks to win wonky games. San Francisco looks buried, but a Cardinals squad that led the division by a full game a week ago is suddenly tied with the surging Rams and looking up at Seattle.
But are the Cardinals still the best team in the division?
Arizona was the much better team than Minnesota, running 26 extra plays for 133 more yards than the Vikings. The defense had another outstanding game and keeps outperforming expectations, holding the Vikings to a single third-down conversion on eight tries. The problem is that Arizona went one-of-six in the red zone, settling for and missing field goals in a one-point loss.
The Cardinals went from 6-4 into the bye to 6-6 after consecutive losses, but this is still a good team. Arizona ranks 8th in the league in DVOA, and it's both sides of the ball. The offense ranks eighth as well, and the defense continues to surprise at 12th and has allowed 23 or fewer points in all but four games, including just 13.5 PPG allowed over the last four outings, even with the two losses.
The schedule sets up nicely for Arizona.
The Cardinals are home for Seattle this week in a huge NFC West battle, but win that one and suddenly the Cards come up for air against the Patriots and Panthers. That could mean 9-6 heading into games against the Rams and 49ers, both of whom may well have packed it in by then. San Francisco is 5-7 and on the brink already, and the Niners could put the nail in the coffin for the 6-6 Rams who play the Bills and then San Francisco on a short week.
Arizona has a chance to win out, and even winning this week against Seattle gives the Cardinals control of the division again. Seattle has the much more difficult schedule, with the Packers and Vikings up after this week, and the Seahawks offense — especially its porous line — remains very unreliable.
I've been in on Seattle futures all season and am still happy with my position, but Sunday's results have given us a great opportunity to hedge with Arizona on what I think is a two-team race in the NFC West.
FTN makes Arizona clear division favorites at 54.5%, better than a coin flip, which means the Cardinals are a clear division value at +190 (BetRivers). If you want a little extra juice, I like Detroit's division odds, even with Minnesota and Green Bay hanging around. An Arizona-Detroit division parlay has real value at +242.
But what if the Cardinals do win the division?
I'm betting Arizona to win the NFC at +5000 (BetMGM).
Arizona's not going to catch Detroit or Philadelphia at this point, but with the woebegone NFC South likely headed for the 4-seed, a division win for the Cardinals would likely give them the 3-seed. That likely means a home rematch against the Packers or Vikings — a team Arizona just dominated statistically.
Win that game, and Arizona likely still needs to win in both Detroit and Philadelphia to steal the NFC. That's an uphill battle. But is it possible the Cardinals could have the better coaching staff and quarterback in those games? Couldn't Kyler Murray catch lightning in a bottle for a month and be the best QB in the NFC?
Win even one more game and the Cardinals are playing in the NFC Championship Game. They're likely big underdogs there, but at that point, we'll have plenty of options with a 50-to-1 ticket. Not all tickets have to cash to be winning positions. Even just winning the division and one playoff game would leave a real hedging opportunity on a 50-to-1 ticket on one of the eight remaining teams at that point.
Right now, the NFC feels like a two-team race between the Lions and Eagles. But what if it's not those two teams playing to get to the Super Bowl?
Green Bay and Minnesota are +700 and +900 to win the NFC, by comparison, and Arizona would likely be hosting one of those two in the opening round. The Cardinals' odds are priced way longer than Tampa Bay (+3000) and much more on par with the Rams (+5000) and Falcons (+5500), two incomplete teams that may not even make the playoffs.
Arizona is as well-positioned as anyone in the NFC to crash the party, and the Cardinals' odds are way off at +5000. You may be very happy to have this ticket in your portfolio in January.
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Chop Robinson to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+2000)
Most of the award markets have a clear favorite at this point, but Defensive Rookie of the Year has looked up for grabs all season.
The market would like you to believe this is down to Rams edge rusher Jared Verse and Eagles corner Quinyon Mitchell, and truthfully, it probably should. Both have been excellent on surprisingly good defenses on relevant teams, and both are even better by underlying metrics than their traditional stats would indicate.
That's exactly the problem, though. We still don't have many reliable defensive metrics, and voters still tend to go for splashy stats and big plays when it comes to defenders. Mitchell has been great but doesn't even have a single interception, fumble, or sack, unlike rookie teammate Cooper DeJean, who has two of the three. Verse has 4.5 sacks, less than rookie teammate Brandon Fiske's six.
Both Verse and Mitchell could end up splitting votes with teammates if the flash stats aren't there, and that's why I'm eyeing a sleeper emerging further down the board.
Chop Robinson may sound more like a Gordon Ramsay Thanksgiving delicacy than an NFL star, but he's emerged as a real pass-rushing threat for the Miami Dolphins.
Robinson has a sack in three of the last five games, and at 3.5 on the season, he's in range of the rookie sack lead. And these aren't fluke sacks, either. Robinson wasn't great on Thanksgiving but led the entire NFL in pressures and pass rush win rate each of the previous two weeks — not just rookies but all players.
Robinson still plays the Jets (twice), Texans, 49ers, and Browns. That's a lot of bad offensive lines with injuries to boot, which means plenty of sack opportunities. Cleveland and Houston have allowed the second and third most sacks this season, and Aaron Rodgers sure doesn't look like he wants to get hit while backup Tyrod Taylor is a sack machine if we ever see him.
He is pressuring opposing QBs as well as anyone right now, which makes him a threat on any given Sunday to have a huge two- or three-sack game.
In a DROY field with no runaway winner, Robinson is a playable long shot at +2000 (FanDuel).
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