Each week on the award-winning NFL podcast "The Favorites," Action Network betting experts Simon Hunter and Chad Millman pick five moneyline underdogs to bet in the NFL.
Here are our NFL picks for moneyline underdogs to bet in Week7. And to get the most out of these NFL Week 7 picks, make sure to round robin these moneyline underdogs — especially at bet365, where you can use our bet365 bonus code!
NFL Picks: 5 Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 7
Hunter: It's a little surprising, but the pros and sharps like Atlanta here. I know some really wise guys who love Atlanta in this spot.
The argument here is that you're buying low on a Falcons team that probably isn't going to have Desmond Ridder throw three picks and have another total meltdown. Last week was a good spot to fade him. We knew that, coming off of his best game of the year. But Atlanta was moving the ball up and down the field on Washington; they just had a ton of bad turnovers.
A lot of pros love this spot. This has to be our "Big Balls Bet of the Week." The Bucs? Yes, they are good. But they're a little overvalued.
Millman: This is essentially a "Luck Rankings" game. When we do the Luck Rankings, we like there to be a certain threshold, and this is one ranking difference away from hitting that threshold. The Falcons have ended up in the "unlucky" category in four of the past six weeks. They've had brutal luck this season so far. So I agree, this has to be the Big Balls Bet.
Millman: Our data at Action is showing money coming in on the Rams, but the spread isn't moving from Los Angeles -3, which means that isn't pro money. Mike Tomlin is the most profitable coach as a dog in the past 20 years. As an underdog from Week 5 forward, Tomlin's teams are 37-30 straight up on the moneyline.
I continue to be a Mike Tomlin backer, and there's nothing you can do to get me off that.
Hunter: To me, you already said it: This is a game I'll put in my moneyline round robin, but I'm not going to bet against the spread at the +3. This could almost be a Pittsburgh home game. We know Steelers fans are going to travel, and they're going to be loud.
I could easily see this game being a push that comes down to a field goal either way. It feels like your read is right.
Hunter: It makes my skin crawl. I get it. But I'm on the Bears, and the pros are on the Bears as well. This is a spot play. But that said, it's also almost impossible to make a model-based pick for this game, because both of these teams are so hard to read.
I can't wrap my head around the chance that the Raiders could be 4-3 through seven weeks. I want to take the Bears, and I hate the number on the spread, so here we are.
Hunter: This is another game I thought about making our "Big Balls Bet of the Week." When these two teams play, it's almost always a close, coin-flip contest. Washington has already played four games this year decided by one score.
This one is probably going to be ugly. It's going to be low-scoring. The total is in the 30s. The weather isn't going to be great. Both quarterbacks have question marks. This pick is less about any one edge and more about taking a plus-money underdog in a spot where nothing is for sure.
Millman: This is a fascinating game and spot. There's the on-the-field element: Justin Herbert and his injury. The Chargers have failed to be consistent in their decision-making and make the right decisions because their coaching has been so bad. But their defense has played really well the last two weeks.
Then there's "the spot." You want to fade the public team. That's the Chiefs. You want to back the team coming off a bad primetime loss. That's the Chargers. In this spot, you want to play the division underdog, because dogs in division games are 60 games above .500 against the spread in the last decade and profitable on the moneyline.
Hunter: We know the deal when we're backing this Chargers team. It's going to be uncomfortable the whole way. The Chargers are going to be more desperate. They need this one badly. The only fear is the Herbert stuff, especially against a really good Chiefs defense.
The Chargers are fifth in red-zone efficiency; the Chiefs are 17th. But at a line that's this long, with me making the spread Kansas City -3.5, I feel like this is a great line. It's such a big number, and the Chargers should be in this game late.
Once again, make sure to round robin these moneyline underdogs — especially at bet365, where you can use our bet365 bonus code!
