The Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears for an NFC North showdown on Sunday Night Football.
Although, it's not really much of a showdown — the 7-3 Packers have a two-game lead in the division and are among the NFC's best heading into this primetime matchup against the 5-5 Bears, who are returning to Mitch Trubisky as their starter with Nick Foles battling a hip injury.
So where's the betting value on this 8-point spread? Our analysts make a case for both sides, actually, with a third outlining their pick on the total.
Bears vs. Packers Odds & Picks
Packers -8
Matthew Freedman: In his career, Rodgers has thrived in two notable spots: at home and within the division.
- At home: 55-32-3 against the spread | 23% return on investment
- Within division: 44-26 ATS | 23% ROI
And at Lambeau Field vs. NFC North opponents, Rodgers is an improved 22-12 ATS (26.2% ROI), per our Bet Labs data.
I'm not worried about the Bears. Although head coach Matt Nagy was 12-5 ATS in his first year with the team, and his opponents are 17-8-1 ATS (31% ROI) since the start of last season.
The Bears are coming off the bye, but I'm still not concerned because Nagy is 0-2 with an extra week to prepare.
I like the Packers to -9.5 (-110).
Bears +8
Brandon Anderson: Waiting all day for a Sunday night, am I right?
The NFL will surely promote this game with old-timey hard-hitting footage of Dick Butkus and Walter Payton and Brett Favre. They’ll remind us that the Bears and Packers are one of the NFL’s great rivalries.
Unfortunately, this supposed "rivalry" hasn’t been much of a rivalry thanks to Favre and Aaron Rodgers, and credit the Bears for staying terrible for three and a half decades.
The Packers simply do not lose to the Bears. Green Bay has won seven of eight against Chicago. Or, if you prefer, 11-of-13, or 17-of-20. Pick whatever endpoint you want, and you’ll find a whole lot of Green Bay wins. And right on cue, the Packers are favored by nearly double digits again on Sunday night.
The Packers are supposed to win, again, and they probably will. But can the Bears cover the high line? That’s another question entirely.
The Bears are desperate. They’ve lost four straight and are basically playing for their season in this game. This is Chicago’s last stand. It’s also one more chance for Trubisky to make his case as an NFL quarterback, maybe another last stand. And I’ll be honest, I kind of like Chicago’s offense better with Mitch. A shocking statement, truly, but at least he is mobile and gives them another dimension.
Chicago may have lost four straight and fallen out of things, but four of the five Bears losses this season are by one score. That is to say, Chicago is 9-1 against this specific spread this season. Chicago’s defense is fantastic, and Green Bay’s offense has sputtered against top defenses at times. And the Bears' defense is good enough to keep them in this game.
Rodgers will find a way to win. He pretty much always does against Chicago. But the Bears can keep this close, enough to cover a nearly double-digit spread.
Under 44.5
Chris Raybon: Despite the Packers averaging only 18.0 points per game against the Bears since they acquired Khalil Mack, Green Bay has won three of those four games thanks to Chicago's ineptitude on offense, as the Bears averaged just 15.8 points per game across those four contests.
Mitchell Trubisky vs. Nick Foles is a wash, so Trubisky starting doesn't create value on a spread that has jumped to -9. If forced to choose a side, I would still lean Packers, as Rodgers is 35-21-1 ATS following a straight-up loss, according to our Bet Labs data.
However, given that the Bears match up well on defense and the weather forecast is shaping up as one not conducive to a huge passing day, I like the value on the total more.
Per our Bet Labs data, the under is 9-4 in Trubisky's starts as a road underdog. These teams have combined for an average of 33.75 points per game over their last four meetings, which drops to 23.5 in the two matchups featuring Matt LaFleur vs. Matt Nagy.
Now facing each other for the third time, the familiarity between Nagy and LaFleur should only increase the likelihood of this being a low-scoring game, as divisional games played in November or later have gone under at a 56.5% clip since 2003:
I would bet this down to 43.
