One way I find betting edges is by comparing the odds to my NFL Power Ratings — if there's a notable difference between, I'll make a bet. (By the way, you can access mine and my colleague's NFL ratings in our PRO Projections.)
Each week of the season I'll highlight the biggest of those edges. We've got three for Week 13, so let's jump right in!
NFL Betting Picks
Jets +8 vs. Raiders
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET | More Game Info
The Jets are currently the lowest-ranked team in my power ratings — shocking, I know — but they do offer value here.
This will be only the second game in which Sam Darnold, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims are all healthy. Mims has played at a high level, and I envision him being a true alpha wide receiver over the coming seasons (potentially with Trevor Lawrence as his quarterback).
The Jets face a Raiders team that just suffered a 43-6 beatdown to the Falcons. I expect the Raiders to bounce back and not overlook the Jets here, but the Raiders will be without running back Josh Jacobs — the heart of this offense. It could throw enough of a wrinkle into their game plan that the offense could struggle and keep this game close.
Even if the Raiders end up pulling away from the Jets and build a lead of 10 or more points, the Jets would be a threat for a backdoor cover. Their run defense has allowed the fifth-lowest success rate of 36%, which could stymy the Raiders if they get into a run-heavy game script. Plus, as I mentioned above, the Jets' passing game is the healthiest it's been all season, which would come in handy in potential garbage time.
I took this at +9 as soon as the Jacobs news broke, but I would bet the Jets down to +7.5.
Cardinals +3 vs. Rams
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET | More Game Info
My power ratings project the Cardinals as 1-point favorites, but it's clear that Kyler Murray is playing at less than 100% with his injured throwing shoulder, so I adjusted my projection to Rams -1.5.
It seems like an over-adjustment to move the spread four points as the market has done here. The Rams have gone 2-2 over their past four games despite Jared Goff turning the ball over 10 (!) times over that stretch, and it's difficult to back a turnover-prone quarterback as a 3-point road favorite.
Let's hope Murray's shoulder is closer to 100% on Sunday. Buy the Cardinals to +3, but no further.
Giants-Seahawks Under 47.5
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET | More Game Info
The Seahawks #LetRussCook over the first nine weeks of the season by passing at the sixth-highest rate in the league (62%). But over the past three games, they've made Russ order take out, as their pass rate has fallen to 18th (58%).
Improved defensive play coupled with their running backs returning to health has helped drive the more run-heavy approach, and a risk-averse coach like Pete Carroll will be even more conservative with his play-calling in a matchup like this one. The Giants will be starting Colt McCoy and are unlikely to generate enough offense for the Seahawks offense to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters.
It's also worth pointing out that the Giants' run defense is one of their strengths: They allow the third-lowest success rate on run plays (only Tampa Bay and New Orleans are better), which should help them slow down a more run-heavy Seahawks offense.
I project this total closer to 46, and considering how key 47 is for totals, I would only bet this down to 47.
