We have another Tuesday night NFL matchup, this time featuring the Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens.
Our staff details how they're betting this primetime game, featuring three picks: A spread angle and two props. Let's dive right in.
NFL Picks & Predictions
Ravens -8 vs. Cowboys
Brandon Anderson: On paper, this is a major mismatch.
The Ravens are still the far better team despite their disappointing season thus far. For the Cowboys to even keep the game close, they will have to depend on big plays from their star receivers. More importantly, they will need another tepid performance from the Ravens.
But the Ravens are still very good at running the football and playing defense, and that spells trouble against a team that can't score or stop the run.
Baltimore may only have six wins, but five of the six have come by 14 or more points. And remember, Dallas has lost by double digits five times already, too.
You never know with a weird Tuesday game in a strange pandemic season, but this looks like a get-right opportunity for Lamar Jackson and Co. This is not a great spot to tease the Ravens — either bet them to cover with ease as they have during their wins this season, or take the Cowboys outright at long odds.
At -8, this looks like a great spot to bet on the Ravens getting their season back on track.
Devin Duvernay Over 23.5 Rec Yards (-125)
Sean Koerner: Willie Snead remains on the Ravens' reserve/COVID-19 list and was not activated for Tuesday night, which means that Duvernay will start in Snead's place for the second straight game.
Last week, Duvernay ran a ridiculous 95% routes run per dropback. It wasn't very reassuring to see him record only three catches for 20 yards given that much playing time, but the Ravens combined for only 110 passing yards between Robert Griffin III and Trace McSorley.
The passing game should get a boost with Lamar Jackson under center, and Duvernay is a good bet for 3-5 targets out of the slot.
Given his low average depth of target at 5.5, his targets are typically high-percentage plays, as evidenced by his 82% catch rate on the season — he's exceptional once the ball is in his hands and is averaging 6.6 yards after the catch (per NextGenStats).
This is a great spot to invest in Duvernay's over — I would bet it up to 28.5, but here are his projected chances of going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:
Dez Bryant First TD +2000
Brandon Anderson: Did you know that Dez Bryant used to play for the Dallas Cowboys?! Yes! It’s true.
Bryant was once a star player wearing a star on his helmet, and now three years after last playing football, he finally has his first chance to play against the team that cut him. And if you know anything about star prima donna receivers, you have to believe he will relish this chance to face his old team.
No team in the NFL has allowed more passing touchdowns this season than the Cowboys. They've allowed 25 already, more than two per game. And the Ravens have certainly been more of a running team, but this pass defense is there for the taking.
There’s more good news: Mark Andrews is Baltimore's one sure-handed receiver and Jackson's clear go-to target, but Andrews will miss Tuesday night. The Ravens have 16 touchdown passes this season, and Andrews has caught six of them, nearly half the total.
Baltimore is a big favorite and deservedly so. This is a chance for a long shot pay off. Dez has always been a big red-zone target, and you better believe he will have a little extra motivation against the Cowboys. It makes sense that Baltimore would give him a chance to get on the board early and set the tone.
Don't go crazy here, but at +2000, sprinkle a little portion of your wager on some Tuesday night Dez Bryant magic and hope he gets a little revenge.
