NFL Picks & Predictions: Early Conference Championship Bets
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NFL Picks & Predictions: Early Conference Championship Bets
We're onto Conference Championship Sunday. We already have spread picks for both Chiefs-Ravens and Lions-49ers. Check out our NFL picks & predictions for the Conference Championships in the table below.
| Game | Day, Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Sunday, 3 p.m. | ||
| Sunday, 6:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Chiefs vs. Ravens
By Ricky Henne
There’s a stark difference in Lamar Jackson’s record against the spread (ATS) once it hits -3.5 (or higher), which is why I jumped on Ravens -3 while I can get that number.
Jackson is 22-6 ATS when either favored by three or less or as an underdog. The Ravens went 6-1 in those games this season, with their lone loss coming in Week 18 when they rested their starters. On the other hand, Jackson’s only 22-31 over his career when favored by 3.5 or more.
Although Kansas City’s offense looked great against the Bills, it’s still a far cry from what we’ve been treated to over the years. The Chiefs will need to be perfect against a Ravens defense that allowed the fewest points in the league (16.5) and ranked first in DVOA. Unfortunately, they’re hard to trust considering they led the league in drops.
The Chiefs have had to rely on their defense, but it was troublesome to see how they fared Sunday against the run. The Bills averaged 4.7 yards per carry and gashed them for 182 yards. Buffalo boasts one of the league’s top rushing attacks, ranking seventh in both yards (130.1) and DVOA. However, that's nothing compared to the Ravens, who led the league in yards (156.5) and DVOA.
Jackson might be in for a big game, too, after watching Josh Allen carry the ball 12 times for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Jackson led all quarterbacks with 821 rushing yards this season while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He was particularly lethal in Saturday’s win over the Texans, rushing 11 times for 100 yards and a pair of scores.
Baltimore has significant advantages in key areas, and I suspect this line will creep up as the week goes along. As a result, I personally made sure to grab this before it moved off the -3 that’s been key over Jackson’s career.
Pick: Ravens -3 (-122)
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Lions vs. 49ers
By Sam Farley
The Niners struggled against the Packers, but I'm more than happy to buy the "dip." When it comes to this matchup against the Lions, I think the 49ers are superior across the board.
As much fun as the Lions are to watch, I simply can't see them keeping the 49ers at bay with a pass-funnel defense. The Lions allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game in the regular season and just let Baker Mayfield throw for 349 yards and three touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the 49ers defense ranked fourth in defensive DVOA in the regular season, nine spots ahead of the Lions. Detroit's playoff resumé isn't that impressive either given Los Angeles and Tampa Bay ranked 22nd and 14th, respectively, in overall defensive DVOA.
Pick: 49ers -7 (-105)
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