NFL Picks & Predictions: Early Divisional Round & Playoff Bets
Pictured: Jordan Love (left) and Patrick Mahomes.
NFL Picks & Predictions: Early Divisional Round & Playoff Bets
Action Network’s NFL betting staff is on to the Divisional Round. We have two experts who have already filed bets for the Packers vs 49ers showdown on Saturday night. Check out the NFL picks & predictions for the Divisional Round below.
| Game | Day/Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday, 4:30 p.m. | ||
| Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | ||
| Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | ||
| Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | ||
| Saturday, 8:15 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texans vs. Ravens
By Sam Farley
The Texans head into M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday as 9.5-point 'dogs. I understand why the Ravens are getting love as the most balanced team in the AFC this season, combining an elite defense and an exciting offense.
That said, I have to take the Texans and the points.
I'm still not sure if I can see C.J. Stroud and the Texans winning, but I think they'll keep it close. Stroud just surgically took apart another of the NFL's best defenses in the Browns, and they did a good job against the Cleveland ground game, too. I think the market is potentially undervaluing the Texans' defense and still, despite everything, undervaluing Stroud.
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Packers vs. 49ers
Comin' in hot with this week's Hot Read, and look, this one is terrifying. The 49ers are a rested juggernaut, the Packers defense is bad, and it's entirely possible San Francisco drops 40 on us and makes us all feel like fools.
We all watched that drubbing of the Cowboys though, and that was no fluke. This Packers offense is legit. Since Week 9, Green Bay is No. 2 in Offensive DVOA, top five both running and passing, and a lot of that is just Jordan Love blossoming into a superstar right before our eyes.
Before Week 9, Love ranked second to last in Completion Rate Over Expectation; since then he's ranked second best, plus top three in both EPA per play and PFF grade. That Cowboys game was no anomaly. Love has played like an MVP for half a season now. The 49ers secondary is beatable, and Green Bay's No. 2 Pass Block Win Rate will give Love a chance. Aaron Jones should also run well. He's had 20+ carries for 110+ yards in four straight and the 49ers run defense is a weak link.
The Packers offense can score and hang, especially since San Francisco's defense is worse in the first half and much worse at home, actually bottom half of the league by DVOA versus second on the road. Green Bay won't give the game away either. The Packers had the lowest sack + turnover total in the NFL this season (2.8) despite their youth, and Matt LaFleur will give his team aggressive strategic advantages over Kyle Shanahan in-game too.
San Francisco hasn't played a real game since getting demolished by the Ravens on Christmas Night, so that could lead to some rust after a long layoff. The 49ers haven't really been tested a ton either, so the longer the Packers hang, the more the pressure mounts on Brock Purdy and crew. Add in a high chance of rain and wind, and that randomness could add variance to help the underdog too.
Every human instinct says to bet those rested, juggernaut 1-seeds in the Divisional Round, but history says to do the exact opposite.
Home favorites are just 42% ATS this round over the last two decades. One-seeds are 35% ATS, including 10-25-1 ATS (29%) when favored by 10 or less. You'd expect the 1-seeds to roll, but both 1-seeds have covered only twice in two decades, while they've gone 0-2 ATS eight times in that span. The average 1-seed fails to cover by 2.1 PPG since 2003, so you're paying about a two-point tax to bet on a Divisional Round 1-seed.
I've got a couple more Divisional Round trends for you. Home teams on a one-game losing streak — remember, San Francisco rested in Week 18 — are an awful 3-15 ATS (17%). Meanwhile, road teams this round that missed last year's playoffs are 27-13 ATS (68%), often young, up-and-coming teams that just proved themselves with a big opening-round win.
I did not bet on the Packers last week but I had this matchup circled if we got here. Packers +10 all day, and I'm betting it now because we want that key number.
But we're not done yet. Can I interest you in a little Packers escalator?
Division Round underdogs of 7-to-11 points are 12-23 straight up the last couple decades, returning an incredible 52% ([) on the moneyline. Sprinkle Packers ML +380 in case Jordan Love pulls another stunner.
But let's take it a step further! What happens if Green Bay wins? We already saw the Packers win in Detroit on Thanksgiving, and Green Bay might be an NFC Championship Game road favorite if the Lions lose next week. Ride that escalator for a Packers +1100 to win the NFC ticket too — how often do you get that number for the best quarterback left in the conference?
And listen, if we're going that far, we can't stop now. Gotta nibble Green Bay +3000 to win the whole thing, even if it just ends up a ticket to hedge against once the Packers get there as huge underdogs.
It all starts with Jordan Love and this Packers offense putting up some points and covering. Let's have some fun.
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Packers vs. 49ers
By Tony Sartori
The Packers have become a "social media darling" of sorts, mainly due to Jordan Love's tremendous play over the back half of the season and their absolute decimation of the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card round.
However, recency bias is why the San Francisco 49ers can still be grabbed at -9.5 (-118) at FanDuel as of Monday at 10 p.m. ET, and I want to sell high on a Packers team that overachieved last week. There are multiple reasons why Dallas was a much better matchup for Green Bay.
First, there is a big gap in coaching between Matt LaFleur and Mike McCarthy. That gap does not exist in the LaFleur vs. Kyle Shanahan matchup.
Second, the Packers have simply played the Cowboys extremely well over the past 15 years, winning an astounding 10 of the past 11 meetings. However, the opposite is true against San Francisco, a team Green Bay is just 4-7 against over the past 11 matchups.
Narrowing it down to this season specifically, the only area where the Packers outperformed the 49ers was in passing yards allowed per game. Outside of that statistic, San Francisco ranked higher than Green Bay in each of the following categories: yards per game, passing yards per game, rushing yards per game, points scored per game, 3rd Down %, yards allowed per game, rushing yards allowed per game, points allowed per game and 3rd Down % against.
This wide gap in performance is why we are catching such a long number at -9.5, but San Francisco is no stranger to covering large numbers. Each of its past 10 wins have come by at least a 10-point margin.
I would play -9.5 up to -120.
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Packers vs. 49ers
By Ricky Henne
The Packers to score over 19.5 points? Yes, please!
San Francisco’s defense is terrific. It gave up the third-fewest points per game in the regular season (17.5) and ranked fourth in total DVOA. However, I’m all in on the Packers offense at this point, no matter who they’re playing.
Jordan Love and company are humming. The Packers were 3-6 at the season’s midpoint, but they are 7-2 since largely thanks to the offense, which had to be lights out to make up for the league’s sixth-worst defense in total DVOA.
The Packers are averaging 28 points over their last nine games (including the postseason). They failed to cross the 19.5-point threshold only once in that span and averaged 31.7 points in three games against top-10 scoring defenses.
I grabbed this quick in case it jumps. There are multiple paths to it hitting, including three touchdowns or two TDs and a pair of field goals. This number is simply too tempting for me to pass up, so I’m more than willing to take a stab at it despite San Francisco’s elite defense.
Pick: Packers Over 19.5 Points (-110)
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Packers vs. 49ers
By Nick Giffen
This is a pure numbers play.
Jordan Love should not be 12-1 to score a touchdown. He should be closer to 9-1, according to my numbers. I played this immediately when I saw it.
I would play this down to +950. Get in on the action while you can.
Pick: Jordan Love ATD (+1200 | Play to +950)
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What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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