NFL Playoff Picks: Wild Card Predictions, Bets
Action Network’s NFL betting staff is on to the Wild Card Round. We have two experts picks in for Packers vs Cowboys and more to likely come.
Until then, check out our NFL playoff picks and Wild Card predictions on the three NFC games below.
| Game | Day, Time (ET) | NFL Picks |
|---|---|---|
  | Sunday, 8 p.m. | |
  | Monday, 8 p.m. | |
  | Sunday, 4:30 p.m. | |
| Sunday, 4:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rams vs. Lions
Sunday night gives us all sorts of juicy storylines as Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit to face his old team. We're going to get Ben Johnson and Sean McVay dialing up all sorts of awesome plays, and with a total in the 50s and rising, there will be points.
The Rams will certainly score. They've been the No. 2 offense by DVOA the second half of the season behind only the 49ers, and the Lions defense has not been good. Stafford has been here before, and Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua will do their thing. The Rams have won seven of eight games since their bye, with the only loss in overtime to the Ravens, and L.A. had scored 31.3 points per game over its last six games with at least 26 points in all six before resting starters Sunday.
Don't forget about that other story line though: Jared Goff against his old team, too.
The Rams haven't exactly been a great defense either, but they've been better than expected. Aaron Donald and rookie Kobie Turner can get after the softer part of Detroit's line on the interior, and Los Angeles' run defense has been top 10 down the stretch, key against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Lions might be without Sam LaPorta and Kalif Raymond after injuries Sunday.
And if there's one team that knows better than anyone how to beat Jared Goff, it's these Rams. Goff's flaws and shortcomings are why this team made the trade for Stafford that netted them the Super Bowl, lest you forget, and L.A. knows Goff's foibles and exactly how to exploit them. Raheem Morris's defense will be ready, and Goff can only hide for so long.
A couple of Wild Card Round trends back the Rams, too. Home teams that won their finale by 10 or fewer points are just 17-30-3 (36%) against the spread (ATS) over the last two decades, and home teams that missed last year's playoffs are an ugly 13-29 (31%) ATS. Bettors tend to overrate these shiny, new teams and get too excited about them.
The Rams look a lot like Detroit, with elite offense and not a ton of defense, but L.A. is healthier and peaking while Detroit was better earlier this season. Grab L.A. +3.5 now because we want that hook — Detroit has five wins already by under seven points, so the Rams can cover even in a loss.
Pick: Rams +3.5
Eagles vs. Buccaneers
These teams played back in Week 3 and it was a snoozer — 25-3 until a late garbage TD — as the Eagles nearly doubled the Bucs in time of possession and almost tripled them in yardage. This isn't early-season Philadelphia anymore, but the Eagles should still dominate the trenches both ways.
The Bucs offensive line has its faults and Tampa Bay runs heavily up the middle, one area where the Eagles defense still rates very well. The Bucs offense has actually been much worse at home than on the road all season by DVOA, bad on early downs and early in the game, too. Philadelphia's defense is cratering but the Bucs may not be built to take advantage.
Tampa Bay's defense has actually been solid, too, ranking around 10th to 15th in many metrics. Philadelphia's offense has been more good than great and heavily reliant on its passing attack, but Jalen Hurts has had a miserable time against Todd Bowles in his career. In three games he's thrown only three TDs with five interceptions, at least one each game, completing under 55% of his passes for just 217 yards per game.
And don't forget, Hurts injured his finger on Sunday and didn't play the second half, while A.J. Brown also left hurt and DeVonta Smith was already out injured. You have to assume those guys at least try to play in a playoff game, but all those injuries could neuter the only real strength left on the Eagles. Baker Mayfield was also clearly playing hurt, hobbling over to the sidelines repeatedly against Carolina.
The thing I love about this under is that there are so many paths to cashing. Could the Eagles defense finally show up against a subpar Bucs offense? Sure! Might all those Philadelphia injuries kill the Eagles offense? Maybe! Will an injured Baker Mayfield melt in a big game? He might! We can go under at 31-7 for either team or just a boring 20-16. The possibilities are endless.
Bucs unders were 11-6 this season, and we've been backing home underdog unders and primetime unders all year, especially on Monday night. There's also a Wild Card Round-specific trend for outdoor non-division games with a total at 41 or above, with those going 29-9 to the under (76%) over the past two decades.
You'll want to grab this now. I grabbed under 45 at open and it's already dropped to 44.5, but this is a really important spot because 40, 41, 43, and 44 are all key numbers for totals, so you want to stay in front. The Bucs have gone under this total in all but four games this season. Let's end the weekend ugly.
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Packers vs. Cowboys
The Packers offense was one of the best in the latter half of the regular season.
In Week 18, they had one of their tougher tests against a Bears defense that ranked in the top three in both rushing yards and passing yards allowed per play over the last 11 games. The Packers didn't light up the scoreboard, but they passed with flying colors, averaging 7.2 yards per play as Jordan Love continued to make plays and throw with precision accuracy.
The Cowboys defense is overrated at this point. They rely solely on pressuring the quarterback — when they can’t generate consistent pressure, they tend to allow chunk gains. Dallas will have a tough matchup against a Green Bay offensive line that ranks second in pass block win rate and fifth in adjusted sack rate.
Filtering out offenses ranked outside the top 20 in DVOA, the Cowboys have played eight games against formidable offensive units, surrendering an average of 25.75 points per game.
I am thrilled to be catching a full touchdown in what I expect to be a back-and-forth affair.
Pick: Packers +7
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Packers vs. Cowboys
By Ricky Henne
The Packers and Cowboys have had some doozy playoff games over the years, and this one has a chance to be another high-scoring affair.
Dallas’ offense is as good as it gets and is firing on all cylinders, while Jordan Love has Green Bay’s humming. Meanwhile, Packers fans can’t wait to run defensive coordinator Joe Barry out of town. At the same time, the Cowboys’ defense is a bit fraudulent. As John noted above, Dallas is allowing an average of 25.75 points per game against eight teams ranked inside the top 20 in DVOA.
Green Bay has also been an over machine of late. It hit in six straight games before going under in its playoff clinching win over the Bears. The over has also been money in the bank in road games (7-2), which isn’t much of a surprise considering the Packers average the NFL’s fourth-most points on the road (25.3).
Meanwhile, Dallas figures to feast on a Packers defense ranked 28th in DVOA. The Cowboys cook at home, averaging a league-best 37.4 points per game. The over is also 5-3 at AT&T Stadium in Cowboys games compared to 4-5 on the road.
There’s a chance playing a postseason game in Dallas is too big a moment for Love at this stage of his young career. However, he’s been cool as a cucumber all year, so I’m not sweating it. I’d play this up to 49.5.
Pick: Over 48.5
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