NFL Predictions | Week 13 Picks
My favorite NFL picks for Week 13 are below. I'm on three spreads and an under on Sunday afternoon. You can navigate this post by clicking on a pick below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Colts vs. Titans
In a matchup of two shaky quarterbacks – Indianapolis’ Gardner Minshew and Tennessee’s Will Levis are fifth and sixth, respectively, in turnover-worthy play rate – the Titans have three distinct advantages.
Titans Rush Offense vs. Grover Stewart-less Colts Run D
Last week, the Titans rode Derrick Henry (24/80/2) to victory against the Panthers, who rank dead last in EPA allowed per rush. This week, the Titans get to face a Colts run defense that ranks 31st in EPA/rush allowed since the suspension of defensive tackle Grover Stewart, who grades out as a top-five run defender among 134 qualified interior linemen at Pro Football Focus.
With Stewart in the lineup in Weeks 1-6, the Colts allowed 3.7 yards per carry (11th) and a 42.8% rush success rate (14th). Since Stewart began serving his suspension in Week 12, Indianapolis is allowing 4.9 yards per carry (28th) and a 46.2% rush success rate (31st).
(Healthy) Titans Run Defense vs. Jonathan Taylor-less Colts Rush Offense
With Jonathan Taylor slated to miss the next few games after undergoing thumb surgery, the Colts will turn back to Zack Moss.
I know what you’re thinking: "But Moss scorched the Titans for 165 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries in the first meeting." That would be correct, but that was a week when the otherwise stout Titans run defense – which ranks second in DVOA on the season – was compromised due to injuries to its top two run defenders. Defensive tackle Teair Tart missed the game with a toe injury, and then All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons sustained a shoulder injury. Simmons battled through it but was a shell of himself: You would have to go all the way back to Week 16 of 2021 to find a game in which Simmons earned a worse run defense grade from PFF than his 36.6 mark in that game.
With Simmons and Tartt back healthy to anchor the interior, the Titans run defense has rounded into form over the past three weeks, allowing 3.1 yards per carry (third) and an NFL-low 26.4% rush success rate.
Home-Field
There is typically no edge to be gained from home-field advantage – it’s already baked into every line – but the Titans’ home edge this season has been worth much more than your standard 1-3 points.
- Straight-up record: 4-0 at home, 0-7 on the road
- ATS: 4-0 at home, 1-6 on the road
- ATS differential: +10.8 at home, -8.1 on the road
- Points Scored: 24.8 at home, 12.3 on the road
- Points allowed: 15.0 at home, 23.4 on the road
- Point differential: +9.8 at home, -11.1 on the road
- Total yardage: 345.0 at home, 249.1 on the road
- Total yards allowed: 288.3 at home, 362.3 on the road
Note: The Titans’ Week 5 matchup against the Ravens was technically a home game for the Titans despite being played in London, but I’m counting it as a road game here.
This doesn’t come as a surprise, as it's much easier for a rookie quarterback and a shaky pass protection unit to operate without having to deal with travel, crowd noise, etc. The sample is still extremely small for Levis (five NFL starts), but he has acquitted himself well in the confines compared to on the road.
- Levis at home: 64.9 completion percentage, 7.4 yards per attempt, 4 TD, 0 INT, 5.0% sack rate, 110.5 rating
- Levis on road: 56.8 completion percentage, 6.5 yards per attempt, 2 TD, 2 INT, 9.5% sack rate, 74.8 rating
Levis won’t be asked to do too much by Mike Vrabel, who has a knack for getting the most out of his team in these spots. Per our Action Labs data, the Titans are 15-9 (63%) ATS at home under Vrabel when they’re either an underdog or a short favorite of -2.5 or less. On average, Tennessee has beat the closing number by 3.7 points per game in these spots.
I'd bet the Titans across zero to -1. If it goes past -1, I'd bet the Titans moneyline to -150.
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Cardinals vs. Steelers
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Just two weeks ago, the Cardinals closed at +5.5 (and covered) on the road against a far more dangerous Texans team (that had previously thrashed Pittsburgh, 30-6), so the Steelers laying more here is a bit of an overreaction to the Matt Canada firing and subsequent 400-yard outburst — as much as 16 points can be called an “offensive outburst,” that is.
The Cardinals are a bad team, but this is the exact type of game bad teams cover.
For one, this sets up as a massive letdown spot for the Steelers coming off a big divisional road win. Per our Action Labs data, the Steelers are 28-47-1 (37%) in the Mike Tomlin era when they're coming off a win and favored by more than a field goal.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals predictably got stymied by Sean McVay’s coaching staff yet again in a 37-14 loss to the Rams last week in a game that I was on the Rams for, but this now sets up as a bounce-back spot for a Cardinals team that was otherwise a lot more competitive with Murray at the helm, beating the Falcons as an underdog in Week 10 and losing by 5 points to the Texans in Week 11. Murray ranks No. 1 in the NFL in lowest turnover-worthy play rate (1.5%) among quarterbacks with 113 or more dropbacks. Murray’s scrambling ability also comes in handy when going up against T.J. Watt.
Per our Action Labs data, Murray is 14-4-2 (78%) ATS as a road dog in his career, covering by 8.3 points per game on average. This is a tailor-made bounce-back spot regardless, as underdogs coming off a loss of 20 or more points are 120-79-4 (60%) ATS in the subsequent game since 2017.
I'd bet Arizona to +4.
Chargers vs. Patriots
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This season, Bailey Zappe has been the least accurate quarterback in the short (0-9 yard) range, with an adjusted completion rate of just 56.3%. He was also 52nd in this metric last season.
The Chargers have been held to 20 points or fewer in over half of their games since the Week 5 bye. The cumulative effects of the injuries have been tough to overcome. Mike Williams (ACL) was averaging 6.3 catches for 83.0 yards per game. He was replaced by Josh Palmer, who averaged 3.3 catches for 53.9 yards per game before going on IR himself. Now, the starters opposite Keenan Allen are Quintin Johnston (1.9 catches, 17.3 yards), Jalen Guyton (1.7 catches, 15.0 yards) and practice-squad special-teamer Alex Erickson (1.0 catches, 14.0 yards).
On the offensive line, they’ve had to go from one of the best centers in the game in Corey Linsley to one of the worst in Will Clapp. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is the only Chargers offensive lineman who does not grade out as below average.
The Patriots defense is 12th in DVOA but is gutted itself due to injury. However, New England can do a few things well that could make life tough for the Chargers. The Patriots are good in the red zone, allowing 45.7% of trips to convert into touchdowns, seventh-lowest. They also have long been known to scheme well to limit the opponent’s top option, and this year is no different, as the Patriots rank second in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers. The Chargers offense is in trouble if they don’t get Keenan Allen’s usual production (8.8 catches, 111.0 yards), which they are at risk of here. Austin Ekeler has averaged 3.5 or fewer yards per carry in 6-of-8 games this year and could also struggle against a Patriots run defense that ranks fifth in DVOA.
Not surprisingly given the state of their offense, Patriots unders are 8-3 (73%) this season and 35-25-1 (58%) in the post-Tom Brady era.
I'd bet this down to 38.5.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
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It’s been a minute, but it’s finally time to bet on the Panthers. In honor of them cashing my under 7.5 wins future and firing disaster-you-could-see-coming-a-mile-away head coach Frank Reich, I’m removing the Panthers from betting jail and backing them against a cratering Bucs team that has the same amount of wins as the Panthers do over their last seven games (one).
Unlike Reich, Ejero Eviro is a competent coach who has his side of the ball playing solid football after a rough start.
- Pre-bye (Weeks 1-7): 31.0 points allowed, 342.2 total yards, 197.8 passing yards, 144.3 rushing yards, 0.082 EPA/play (30th), 48.8% Success Rate (31st)
- Post-bye (Week 8-12): 21.2 points allowed, 259.4 total yards, 157.8 passing yards, 101.6 rushing yards, 0.018 EPA/play (22nd), 42.8% Success Rate (18th)
The bye didn’t do any favors to the Bucs offense. Since Week 6, Tampa Bay has topped 20 points just once and is 24th in total yards per game (305.6) and 25th in success rate (41.0%). Baker Mayfield has been middling to below average in most passing metrics. Historically, he struggles in these spots. Per our Action Labs data, Mayfield is 13-24-1 (35%) ATS as a favorite, falling short of the closing line by an average of 2.9 points per game.
Offensively, there’s nowhere to go but up for the Panthers sans Reich (and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown and running backs coach Duce Staley). One change we should be able to count on is the Panthers wasting carries on Miles Sanders who is averaging 3.1 yards per carry and a 40.2% success rate compared to Chuba Hubbard’s 3.8 and 52.5%. In Thomas Brown’s three games as the play-caller, he gave Hubbard 40 carries to Sanders’ 10. Upon taking back play-calling duties, Reich promptly restored Sanders to a 50/50 split, with Sanders getting 26 carries to Hubbard’s 24.
It helps that the Bucs defense has been just as bad – if not worse – than the Panthers offense. Since coming off a bye in Week 6, Todd Bowles’ defense ranks dead last in the NFL in EPA/play (0.069). This week, three of the Bucs' most important defenders will miss this game: LB Lavonte David (groin), LB Devin White (foot) and CB Jamel Dean (ankle).
Also, cornerback Carlton Davis III has been gutting through toe and hip injuries and has been a shell of himself, grading out as the 100th-best cornerback of 120 qualifiers this season while allowing 72.7% of passes in his coverage to be completed for 585 yards (tied-sixth-most), four touchdowns, one interception, and a ghastly 123.7 passer rating.
Bowles is 6-13-2 (32%) as a favorite of more than a field goal, and the current form of his defense is not going to help turn that around.
Carolina is still looking for its second win and it could very well happen against a beatable Bucs team. Per our Action Labs data, road underdogs with one or fewer wins entering their eighth through 12th game are 63-30-5 (68%) ATS since 2003, covering by 3.6 points per game.
I'd bet Carolina to +3.
