And then there were four. We're down to three more games in the 2024-25 NFL season.
For this weekend, I've already made a bet on the AFC Championship Game and think there's a correct side in the NFC. I'm waiting on more injury information there and to see where the line ends up, though.
Check out our episodes of "The Favorites" previewing both Conference Championship Games below, and stay tuned for another coming on Thursday.
Bills vs. Chiefs
The Bills season has been incredible. They carried so much dead cap and had to get rid of multiple key players from past years because of their cap situation, but here they are.
If you’re betting on Buffalo here, though, you’re basically betting on the magic of Josh Allen. You’re betting on it being his year – the MVP, a Super Bowl, beating Mahomes, everything going his way.
Heading into this game, no one’s model will have the Bills as the favorite. The Chiefs are a better team across the board, and this spread being less than a field goal is simply a sign of respect toward Allen and what he’s done this season.
All of the Bills’ struggles this season, though, came on the road. Buffalo was perfect at home but lost to the Ravens, Texans and Rams (not counting the Patriots loss at the end of the season when Allen played one snap).
I’m on the Chiefs here and already invested in them at -1.5. The only way I see that bet getting burned is if it’s a one-possession game and the Bills have the ball last.
Two is such a key number in what’s likely to be a close game like this, so I’d suggest going out of your way to get Chiefs -1.5. In the end, I trust defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to come up with another successful game plan in the playoffs that will get the Chiefs over the hump and back to the Super Bowl.
Commanders vs. Eagles
I understand the hype behind Jayden Daniels and that people want to see more of the new star quarterback. Also, no one wants to see another Super Bowl rematch. We at least had four years between the Chiefs vs. 49ers matchup, but seeing Chiefs vs. Eagles for the second time in three years would be boring.
The Commanders needed Baker Mayfield to have a disastrous game in the Wild Card Round. Then, they needed Jared Goff to melt down in the Divisional Round. He sure did. If the Lions take the ball out of Goff’s hands in key situations and run the ball the whole game, they probably win that game.
It’s fair to say that the Eagles have not played their best football in the playoffs so far. They’ve left a lot of plays out there to be made and have struggled. If this was the regular season, it’d be the perfect spot to back the Eagles in the sense that they match up really well against the Commanders. Also, it was an early matchup in the regular season against Washington that really got Philadelphia humming.
The Commanders run defense is the worst unit in this game and matches up very, very poorly against the Eagles’ rushing attack. Jalen Hurts hasn’t been turning the ball over and still can make plays with his legs, while Saquon Barkley is a man on a mission.
We’re all really impressed by Daniels on the Commanders side, but this defense simply might not be able to hold up its end of the bargain against the Eagles ground game.
It’s also overall not a great spot to back the Commanders, who have run the gauntlet to get to this point. They’ll be the eighth team since 2000 to enter a playoff game having it be their fourth straight road game. The previous seven teams were 0-7 straight-up and 1-5-1 against the spread.
Daniels might be a historic rookie quarterback who’s capable of doing things we’ve never seen before. He’ll need to be perfect – again – to pull off an upset against a veteran team like this.
This isn’t the spread I’d be looking to bet this weekend, but if action keeps coming in on the Commanders then we may need to look into betting on the Eagles.
