I have three NFL player prop picks tonight for the two-game slate of Monday Night Football.
I have an over on a Bears receiver, a Kirk Cousins under that doesn't have much to do with really fading his productivity, and I'm back with another tackles prop after we ended Sunday with a win.
Let's get into my picks for tonight.
NFL Player Prop Picks: Monday Night Football
Rome Odunze
Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey were the rookie WRs that I was the highest on for fantasy purposes entering the season. I highlighted them as guys I was targeting in the WR40-50 range whenever I could in drafts.
However, I viewed Rome Odunze as a one of the best all-around receivers from the 2024 draft class and thought getting paired up with Caleb Williams was excellent for his long-term upside.
This season, though, Odunze and Williams have been out of sync, specifically on deep balls. Williams has connected with Odunze on just three of 22 targets of 20 or more yards down the field. That’s just a 13.6% catch rate, and NextGenStats gave the pair an expected catch rate of 36% on those throws.
A whopping 29% of Odunze’s targets this season have been inaccurate, which leads the team. He’s likely due for more “accurate” passes from Williams moving forward.
I expect Williams, who was an excellent downfield passer in college, and Odunze, a very well-rounded pass-catcher, to improve their connection downfield more. Odunze's ability to make contested catches will only help.
This could be the spot that this duo gets going. The Bears should be facing a pass-heavy game script against the Vikings, who have allowed the third-most catchable balls of 20 or more yards downfield.
Even if Odunze doesn’t haul in a deep pass here, he could still clear this with a few chunk gains against the Vikings' heavy-zone defense. His yards per route run go up from 1.08 against man coverage to 1.38 against zone.
I’m projecting Odunze closer to 45.5 receiving yards here, which isn’t a ton of value, but he’s a rookie I want to be investing in right now, especially with this matchup.
Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins has had a brutal two-game stretch coming out of the Falcons' Week 12 bye that has seen him throw zero touchdowns and six interceptions. He should bounce back this week against a Raiders defense that will now be without Maxx Crosby.
One of the worst plays possible for this market is when the quarterback throws the ball away. It counts as an attempt, doesn’t advance the offense downfield and likely sets up another pass attempt depending on the down/distance. Cousins has thrown the ball away 13 times when facing pressure this season (he doesn’t scramble, so this is sort of his version of it) and has yet to throw the ball away from a clean pocket. Therefore, if he’s facing less pressure tonight, he's less likely to throw it away.
We want the Falcons to have a run-heavy game plan tonight and get out to an early lead. It’s totally fine if Cousins throws the ball (efficienctly) gets us into a positive game script.
Lets take a look at how often the Falcons have played when down 8+ points, in a one-score game and when leading by 8+ points:
- Lead 8+: 4.4%
- One-score game: 77.2%
- Down 8+: 18.4%
The Falcons have led the league with snaps in a one-score game this season and have run the fifth-fewest plays with a 8+ score lead. On those 38 plays they’ve run with an 8+ point lead, they have been the most run-heavy team in the NFL, only dropping back to pass on 23.7% of those snaps.
Based on the six-point spread tonight, I’m projecting the Falcons to play with a lead of eight or more points 21% of the game. That projection is based off of average percentage of snaps for teams that were six-point favorites. So, this could be a game the Falcons can lean on the run a lot more than usual, something they wish they could have done more often this season.
Based on all of the above, I’m projecting Cousins closer to 30.5 pass attempts and like the value we are getting at 32.5. I'd still play this at 31.5 but would obviously rather have 32.5.
If the Falcons do struggle and get down by double-digit points, it would also increase the chances of Cousins getting benched for Michael Penix Jr. I'm not saying it will happen, but the odds of it happening have to be greater than 0%.
Jessie Bates
Jessie Bates has only cleared this number 31% of the time this season. He’s had a fairly tough schedule for a safety to register tackles, but the Raiders have provided the fifth-fewest tackles for safeties.
Desmond Ridder could provide him with a couple more opportunities considering he scrambles at a much higher rate than Aidan O'Connell, who is literally the Mall Santa that sits in the pocket 99% of his dropbacks.
However, this pairs nicely with my Cousins under 32.5 pass attempts because the Falcons should be able to lean on their run game a ton tonight, which will help lower the expected time/play volume Bates faces. That's another sneaky reason why I’m projecting him for a full tackle lower at 5.5 with a 66% chance he stays under 6.5.
