Week 11 might be the best week on the NFL calendar this season.
Every week of NFL gives us something — crazy comebacks, close covers, wild swings, and surprising upsets — but Week 11 looks especially delectable with four separate marquee matchups.
We start Thursday night with a huge NFC East battle featuring Washington and Philadelphia, and then Sunday we've got one monster battle in each window. Baltimore and Pittsburgh renew one of the league's best rivalries to kick things off, Kansas City and Buffalo refresh the best current rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the afternoon, and then Cincinnati and Los Angeles give us a wildcard battle in the nightcap.
With such a big week of marquee games ahead, let's get an early preview of what to watch in each game and how to be thinking about betting futures for each game as we hit the home stretch.
NFL Week 11 Preview, Futures Picks
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Commanders vs. Eagles
This is the first of two upcoming matchups between the Commanders and Eagles, and these teams are as close as you can get. Each team has seven wins — though Washington has an additional loss — and both are 2-0 in the division, with Washington at +73 by point differential and Philadelphia at +72.
It's not often we get a huge game between these teams, even as NFC East rivals. The last time these franchises played with both teams more than a game above .500 was all the way back in November 2000, Donovan McNabb's sophomore NFL season, per Zach Berman. The last time they were both at least four games above .500 was a 1996 game featuring Gus Frerotte versus Ty Detmer, per Mike Lynch.
This is a good one, though the Eagles have dominated this rivalry recently. Philadelphia has won five of the last six meetings and 11 of the last 14.
Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts both have a case as the best quarterback in the NFC. Daniels leads the best unit in the game, Washington's No. 2 DVOA offense, and both offenses have the advantage by the numbers. But both defenses are trending up in recent weeks, especially Philadelphia's unit now at seventh in DVOA, and Washington head coach Dan Quinn will certainly know how to defend this Eagles attack.
The Eagles are at home and Washington has the weakest unit on the field, its defense. Philadelphia has gone particularly run-heavy lately and that could spell trouble against a pretty weak rushing defense.
Books expect a high-scoring game with a total approaching 50. Washington is 7-3 to the over this season, and Nick Sirianni home overs are 21-8 in his career (72%).
It's pretty obvious what's at stake here: pole position in the race for the NFC East.
The game looks a bit more important for Philadelphia. The Eagles hit the road for games against the Rams and Ravens next, so a loss here could quickly turn 7-2 into 7-5 if they're not careful, though the schedule over the final month is pretty soft around a return trip to Washington.
If you like the Eagles here, you might consider betting Philadelphia at +550 to win the NFC (BetMGM). The winner of the NFC East is about 70% likely to be the 2-seed per FTN, so a win sets the Eagles up nicely. Their NFC price is about the same as the 49ers — who wouldn't even make the playoffs if they started right now and may have to win three road games to take the NFC crown.
Washington's once-daunting second-half schedule looks much better now that we got here. Games against the Saints and Titans look pretty easy, and two late games against the Cowboys are quite tasty now.
I like Washington's over 10.5 (-150, BetRivers). FTN projects the Commanders at 11.8 wins, a huge margin in our favor this late in the season. There's technically value on Washington to make the playoffs at -600 too (Caesars) if you're into that sort of thing.
This division is a near coin flip right now but isn't being priced that way, with Washington priced at +195 (FanDuel). If you think the Commanders have a real shot to win this game, that looks like a great play, since they could certainly win it even with a loss Thursday night.
Washington looks in it for the long haul. This could end up being the first of three, not two, meetings.
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Ravens vs. Steelers
From one key division battle to the next, we head to the AFC North for another total that's soaring and nearing 50.
The Ravens-Steelers rivalry has been as good as any in football over the past couple decades, and these games are usually close, contentious, and hard-hitting. Five straight meetings have finished at 30 points or below, and eight straight matchups have finished within one score, with Pittsburgh winning seven of the eight.
Baltimore's offense is pretty obviously the best unit on the field, and maybe in football, with Lamar Jackson now near even odds as the clear MVP favorite. But Jackson has only four career touchdowns against the Steelers and just one win, and Pittsburgh's defense knows his play style and just spent a week prepping for a similar threat in Jayden Daniels.
Baltimore also has the weakest unit on the field, its surprisingly poor defense. The Ravens have leaked explosive plays, especially in the pass game, and Russell Wilson is dialing up and hitting that moon ball on deep shots at a historic pace through three starts.
The over on this game has been hammered, leaping from 45 on Sunday morning to 48 and rising. Bettors expect points from these offenses, rivalry history or not.
Pittsburgh is rightfully a home underdog, but that's where Mike Tomlin's guys are typically at their best. As a home underdog of seven or less, Tomlin is 18-5-3 ATS in his career, covering 78% of the time by 6.3 PPG. Russell Wilson is 17-7 ATS (71%) as a division underdog, the best quarterback in our BetLabs system.
When Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh are the coaches, history says to bet the underdog. The dog in this game is 23-6-3 ATS when those coaches face off, a remarkable 79% hit rate that increases to 90% (18-2-3) ATS as an underdog of three or more.
History says this will be close all the way, and the AFC North is at stake.
Pittsburgh is actually leading the division, not Baltimore. Both teams have seven wins but the Ravens have an additional loss. Pittsburgh has yet to play a division game, so it will be a tough home stretch for the Steelers, especially with the Bengals and Browns both playing better than earlier this season.
Baltimore is favored to win this game and the division, and a win here would certainly put the Ravens in the driver's seat. FTN has the Ravens at 78% to win the AFC North, implying value at -200 (DraftKings) to win the division. If you think Baltimore wins this game, this is your last shot to get that ticket.
A Ravens loss would actually be pretty significant.
Right now, FTN projects Baltimore as the most likely 2-seed in the AFC. A win here coupled with a Bills loss would set the Ravens up nicely, and a 3-seed is next most likely. But 5- and 6-seed come after that, then 4-seed, all before 1-seed — and a loss here would only skew even further in that direction.
That's significant news for Ravens title futures and Lamar Jackson MVP stock too. MVP overwhelmingly goes to a QB on a top-2 seed, so a surprise Pittsburgh win here could blow the MVP race wide open and put the Ravens in position to need three road playoff wins to make the Super Bowl.
If you like Baltimore here but don't hate Pittsburgh big picture, you can bet the Steelers to be an AFC wildcard team at -145 (DraftKings). They're still 7-3 with a loss and would be over 75% for a wildcard with probably a three-game lead on the 7-seed to make the playoffs.
And if Pittsburgh wins?
The sky is the limit for this team, especially as the offense continues to improve under Russell Wilson.
Believe it or not, there's actually a world where the Steelers control their destiny for the AFC 1-seed by the end of Sunday night. If the Chiefs lose and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh is only a game back and plays Kansas City on Christmas.
The Steelers are +2800 to be the 1-seed (FanDuel) if you believe.
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Chiefs vs. Bills
Clear your Sunday afternoon. You're going to want to watch this one.
There's no better treat in football than the seemingly annual matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Mahomes is 4-3 lifetime against Allen but 3-0 in the games that matter most, in the playoffs. Of course, that means Allen is 3-1 in the regular season too.
The last four meetings ended within one score, with margins of three, three, four, and six (in overtime), with the winning score coming in the final two minutes of all but one of those games.
These games have been instant classics, coming down to the final plays and creating heroic moments, with perhaps an MVP moment at stake between Mahomes and Allen. If Lamar Jackson and the Ravens lose earlier on Sunday, the winning QB in this game could be the MVP favorite by nightfall.
Good luck finding an edge in the matchup or a trend you like.
Both offenses are great. Both defenses may be even better. Mahomes and Allen are the best two quarterbacks in football. Andy Reid and Sean McDermott are among the best coaches.
Mahomes as anything worse than a 3.5-point favorite is 26-8-1 ATS (76%), but Josh Allen as anything less than a field goal favorite is 26-14-2 ATS (65%) himself. Unbeaten teams in November or later are typically fade spots by ATS, but those trends reverse if the undefeated team is the underdog or just won by single digits, like the Chiefs. Both teams have been untouchable in the second half, a combined 15-4 ATS.
Keep an eye on the quarterbacks' legs. Allen averages over 10 carries against the Chiefs for 56.1 yards, and his legs have typically been a go-to weapon in big Bills games. Mahomes has had some big rushing totals in this matchup too, including games with 61 and 69 yards rushing, but he's playing on an injured ankle. Perhaps that's an advantage in Buffalo's direction?
What's at stake? Oh, just the AFC 1-seed, the path to the Super Bowl, and Kansas City's shot at undefeated immortality.
The Chiefs get to 10-0 with a win and a pretty soft closing schedule, with the toughest remaining opponent Houston coming to Arrowhead. Kansas City is +800 to go undefeated (FanDuel).
FTN gives the Chiefs 90% odds at a top-2 seed and almost 75% at the 1-seed, and a win here makes Kansas City close to a lock, barring disaster. The Chiefs would have a three-game lead on both Baltimore and Buffalo with head-to-head wins over each, so it'd probably be up to Pittsburgh.
Patrick Mahomes is +750 to win MVP (DraftKings). If he has another big game against Allen in a win, giving him head-to-head wins over both top MVP contenders and a path to 15 or 16 wins as a 1-seed, that's just a bad price for a guy voters would fall over themselves to give a third MVP to.
The Chiefs are +185 to win the AFC (BetMGM). A win here likely means a 1-seed and a bye, a heavily-favored home game against someone like Houston or Pittsburgh, and then one home win against Jackson or Allen from that cashing.
If you think the Bills win, every Buffalo future is on the table. That makes now the time to bet AFC or Super Bowl futures, and it makes Allen a tasty MVP bet at +400 (FanDuel). Remember, if Jackson loses in Pittsburgh earlier on Sunday and picks up a fourth loss, the winning QB here could be the MVP favorite.
How about another sneaky way to bet a possible Buffalo win?
The Lions are 8-1 and heavily favored to get to 9-1 against Jacksonville, so they'd be tied at the top of the NFL standings with the Chiefs if Kansas City loses.
Detroit is +325 to finish with the league's best record (ESPN BET).
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Bengals vs. Chargers
The Sunday nightcap isn't quite as tasty as the other three games above but still looks like a good one.
The stakes are either higher or lower, depending on perspective. This probably won't have a huge impact on the Super Bowl itself but is the biggest make-or-miss playoff game of the weekend.
The Chargers are looking good at 6-3, currently 83% to make the playoffs at FTN, but nothing is ever that easy for this franchise. A loss here could be the start of a brutal month, with the Ravens up next before road games against the Falcons and Chiefs, which could suddenly leave LA 6-7 if the Chargers aren't careful. Games against the Bucs and Broncos after that are losable too.
The Chargers don't need this one, but they'd certainly appreciate it.
The Bengals need this.
Cincinnati looks like a playoff team and even has a positive point differential, but the Bengals are also 4-6 and a loss Sunday night would leave Cincinnati needing to play close to perfect football the rest of the way just to squeak into the playoffs.
The Bengals keep getting close without finishing the job. They've lost twice by a point and once in overtime, and they can't afford any more heartbreak at this point.
Cincinnati has both the best and worst unit on the field.
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are shredding teams and they may get Tee Higgins back too, especially with the Bengals coming off extra rest after a Thursday night game. The Chargers defense has been great but has faced only two offenses in the top half of the league by DVOA (Kansas City and Arizona) and lost both games at home — and they have yet to face a top-10 passing attack like Cincinnati.
The Bengals defense is problematic and easily the worst unit in this game, bottom 10 against both the run and the pass by DVOA. The Chargers offense hasn't been sexy but is trending up lately, and Justin Herbert is playing great ball. Can Jim Harbaugh's offense gash a beatable opponent?
Sunday night unders continue to hit, and the Chargers are 7-2 to the under, but this total has been bet up from 44.5 on Sunday to 47.5 and rising. Bettors are expecting points from Burrow and Herbert.
This is a rare treat, a showdown between these two talented quarterbacks. Burrow is nearly untouchable in non-division games from Week 5 forward at 18-6 ATS (75%), and he's been even better as an underdog.
FTN projects the Bengals at just 8.1 wins and a 32% shot at the playoffs, with the division effectively gone already. This is the exact sort of coin-flip game this team desperately needs. The FTN data would suggest value on Cincinnati to miss the playoffs at -144 (FanDuel).
I lean Bengals here, and I like Cincinnati's season win total over 8.5 at +120 (DraftKings). The Bengals have a very winnable schedule the rest of the way, and Cincinnati could easily finish 9-8, cash that over, and still miss the playoffs.
If you do think the Bengals win this and make the playoffs, they'd certainly be a live underdog with Burrow and Chase. If you want to bet Cincinnati aggressively, the Bengals are +800 to lose in the Divisional Round at DraftKings — that means making the playoffs, winning once as an underdog, then losing the following game, probably at Kansas City.
A Bengals playoff appearance would also be a boon for a Burrow Comeback Player of the Year ticket (+350, Caesars) and/or Chase OPOY (+700, BetRivers).
If you like the Chargers, a win here makes them close to a playoff lock, likely as a wildcard seed that would be a pretty big opening round underdog against a team like the Bills or Ravens. LA is -105 to lose in the Wild Card Round (DraftKings) if you want to go that route.
One more creative way to bet the Chargers is an attempt to middle the season win total. Especially if you think the Chargers lose here, play LA's under 10.5 wins right now ahead of this brutal stretch against Cincinnati, Baltimore, Atlanta, and Kansas City. At that point hopefully the Chargers are 6-7 or 7-6 with four easier games left, and now you may be able to bet over 8.5 or 9.5 with a shot at a juicy middle.
However you bet it, it should be an awesome week of football. Get those futures bets in early, buckle up, and enjoy the ride.
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