NFL Prop Bet
Jarvis Landry Under 63.5 Rec Yards
This number is inflated, and I can't figure out why.
Landry has gone over this number only once over the past 10 games. And the Browns offense is likely going to struggle against the Steelers' No. 1 defense in DVOA. Not only is this Baker Mayfield's first playoff start, but the Browns will also be without head coach Kevin Stefanski.
The following picks are for games or markets that have already locked.
NFL Playoff Bets
Tom Brady Most Pass Yards +600
I like Brady at this price — based on my 10,000 player prop simulations, I would set his line closer to +400.
He has a solid floor and ceiling combo that will allow him to thrive in this market. He's thrown for 390, 348 and 399 yards over his past three games. He's more than capable of putting up a huge total to give him a chance here.
His high floor will also allow him to take advantage if no other quarterback "goes off" this weekend. I would bet this down to +500.
Here are the the projected chances and odds for all 12 expected starters based on my simulations:
Colts +6.5 vs. Bills
The Bills opened as 6.5-point favorites, and despite seeing steady action all week — drawing 60% of bets and 59% of the money as of Friday (check real-time public betting data) — the line hasn't budged.
I think the sharp action has been coming in on the Colts based on how they matchup against the Bills.
Josh Allen has destroyed man coverage this season — out of 42 qualified quarterbacks, he's first in expected points added (EPA) per attempt against it according to Sports Info Solutions. But he ranks 15th against zone, and the Colts ran out of zone defense at the fifth-highest rate in the league.
I don't think the Colts can really shut down Allen, but their heavy zone approach and playmakers DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard and Xavier Rhodes should be able to slow Allen down enough to keep the game close.
When the Colts have the ball, Jonathan Taylor will be the focal point — only Titans running back Derrick Henry has out-rushed Taylor since Week 11. And the Bills' run defense is their only real weakness, ranking 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA and 22nd in EPA per attempt, and I expect the Colts to exploit it.
Philip Rivers likely isn't capable of beating the Bills on his own, but he does rank eighth (out of 34) quarterbacks in EPA/play. The Bills try to generate pressure via the blitz, as evidenced by their 35.5% rate (ninth-highest), but it's a strategy that likely won't throw Rivers off his game as he gets rid of the ball at the sixth-fastest rate (2.52 seconds per NextGenStats).
He's also been clicking with T.Y. Hilton of late. Hilton ranks sixth in EPA among wide receivers since Week 12. The Colts may move Hilton around the formation to avoid Bills shutdown corner Tre'Davious White at times.
I'm projecting the Bills at -4.5 here. They're the better team and should hang on to win by a field goal, but +6.5 is a bit inflated — especially considering that six has become a more valuable number since the NFL moved extra points back in 2015.
I would bet this down to +6.
Bucs-WFT Under 45
Tom Brady has faced the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the league. That could change this week as he goes up against Washington's front four.
It's worth pointing out that Brady has ranked 32nd (out of 38 quarterbacks) in success rate when facing pressure this season. And the Football Team's offense is unlikely to fare much better against a Bucs' defense that ranks fifth in DVOA.
I expect this to be a low-scoring game and project the total at 43.5, so would bet it down to 44.
Terry McLaurin Under 68.5 Rec Yards
McLaurin is playing through an ankle injury and will be at less than 100%. Last week, he was able to put up only 40 yards on seven receptions.
The conservative playing style of Alex Smith also robs McLaurin of his big-play ability. Smith tends to target running back J.D. McKissic and tight end Logan Thomas at a higher rate than Washington's other quarterbacks have, which hurts McLaurin's value a bit when he's under center.
Titans +3.5 vs. Ravens
Ryan Tannehill proved that 2019 wasn't a fluke by posting the second-best EPA/play rate among all quarterbacks in 2020.
He's thrived in a Titans system that leans on Derrick Henry and play-action. It's unlikely that the Titans' 29th-ranked defense will be able to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but the Titans' explosive offense will give them a chance to win in any game script (leading or trailing).
Their last two meetings against Baltimore prove that:
- Week 11: Titans trailed 13-21 heading into fourth quarterback, then came back to win 30-24 in overtime.
- 2019 playoffs: Titans dominated all four quarters to win 28-12.
This should be a high-scoring game that could come down to a field goal attempt on either side. I like the idea of getting the +3.5 here but would not bet it at anything lower.
Mitch Trubisky Under 1.5 Pass TDs (-115)
Trubisky appeared to resurrect his career in Weeks 13-16, leading the Bears on a 3-1 run to help them make the playoffs. But he faced the three worst defenses in the league (in DVOA) over that four-game stretch, and he predictably flopped against the Packers in Week 17 with 252 yards, an interception and no touchdowns.
I have the fair line for him throwing for fewer than 1.5 touchdowns set at -155 against a Saints defense that ranks second in DVOA against the pass.
