Ahh, the smell of NFL Week 1 is upon us, meaning betting handles across all sportsbooks are set to explode with public money.
But an issue for a lot of recreational bettors is not properly rating teams based on their latest coaching and player personnel when making NFL picks for Week 1
Many bettors still fall back on last season's results to determine their NFL picks, which, as you can imagine, is not a winning strategy.
Simply put: Public bettors want no part of the previous season's worst teams and will avoid them at all costs until those lowly squads prove they can cover spreads.
But here's the rub, once those teams show life, especially when it comes to the spread, it's often too late as the market is quick to catch up.
With the help of our Action Labs software, which is now available at a 30% discount for a limited time, I've put together a historically-profitable betting system based on this strategy with six NFL picks for Sunday's Week 1 matchups.
NFL Picks for Week 1
NFL teams that won six or fewer games the previous season and are underdogs are undervalued in Weeks 1-3.
Teams fitting this criteria are 202-153-10 (56.9%) against the spread (ATS), providing a very beefy 10.6% return on investment since the start of the 2005 NFL season.
In fact, this betting strategy has been even more effective in Week 1, going 77-52-2 (59.7%) ATS over the past 17 NFL seasons.
While it's not easy to back last season's worst performers, it does make sense that over the long haul they can provide value as bettors avoid them completely even though it's an entirely new campaign.
And to answer the question that's obviously on your mind, here are the teams that fit this system for this weekend's NFL Week 1 games:
- Jets (+6.5) vs. Ravens
- Jaguars (+3) at Commanders
- Bears (+6.5) vs. 49ers
- Texans (+7) vs. Colts
- Lions (+5) vs. Eagles
- Giants (+5.5) at Titans
