NFL Picks, Predictions | Week 12
All three games on Thanksgiving have a spread of at least a touchdown. The NFL is debuting a Black Friday special matchup, even though one of the two quarterbacks is Tim Boyle. The Lions are thriving this season but haven't historically done well in this spot. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are bulldozing teams and are heavily favored on Turkey Day.
We're back to a full 16-game NFL slate for the remainder of the season. Here are my thoughts on all 16 NFL games, starting with my Thanksgiving passes and ending with my NFL picks and predictions for Week 12.
My picks this season are 34-24-2 (58.6%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code.
| Category |
|---|
| Thanksgiving |
| Black Friday |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| Week 12 Picks |
Thanksgiving
I'm picking a side for Packers vs. Lions, so head down to the picks section for that one.
Commanders vs. Cowboys
No team in the NFL is better as a frontrunner than the Dallas Cowboys. Their defense plays a ton of man coverage, generates a lot of pressure and the offense doesn't mind running up the score on vastly inferior opponents. The Cowboys have won seven games this season — six of them by at least 20 points. They beat the Giants by 40 and 32, the Patriots and Jets by 35 and 20 and the Rams by 23.
The Panthers needed multiple fourth-down conversions and a 17-play drive just to get a touchdown on the board against this Cowboys defense. The Commanders hit rock bottom with six turnovers in their home loss to Tommy DeVito and the Giants last week, and it's hard to see this Washington secondary slowing down Dak Prescott at all.
Prescott is now the highest-graded QB in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. Since Week 5, he's second in EPA per play and EPA + CPOE composite, behind only Brock Purdy. The Commanders defense ranks in the top seven in success rate allowed per dropback in that same timeframe, but big plays and explosives have destroyed the Washington defense. As a result, Washington is 28th in EPA per dropback since Week 5.
Combine Prescott's high success rate offense with the alarming holes in the secondary and you have a recipe for Dallas to cook offensively once again. The Commanders should be able to find success running the ball on Dallas but if they're quickly behind, it could be a problem dropping sack-happy Howell back that frequently.
It's Dallas or nothing for me at home.
Verdict: Lean Dallas -11 or better, bet at -9.5
49ers vs. Seahawks
The Seahawks are entering the gauntlet portion of their schedule at 6-4 with San Francisco twice, Dallas and Philadelphia in their next four games. Seattle needs at least one win to stay in this NFC wild-card race, but most competent offenses have moved the ball up and down the field against this Seattle defense. Baltimore and Detroit picked apart this Seattle secondary for more than 30 points, and even Sam Howell and Andy Dalton-powered offenses got into the mid-20s.
Most of the Seahawks' best defensive games came against teams dealing with major injuries (Browns, Giants and Bengals). Now facing a fully healthy San Francisco offense, it's hard to see Seattle's scheme troubling the 49ers juggernaut. I wrote last week about how the fully healthy San Francisco offense had no problem getting to 27-30 points in most games, and the 49ers had 27 by the end of the third quarter against Tampa Bay last week. Purdy has been the most efficient QB in the NFL from an EPA perspective, and he has his full complement of weapons available to expose the very soft middle of the Seattle defense.
The main question in this matchup is the health of Seattle quarterback Geno Smith. The Seahawks lost RB Kenneth Walker III to injury, but Zach Charbonnet was already taking a chunk of his playing time prior to injury. Smith also left the Seahawks' loss to the Rams with an injury and then came back in for the final drive and looked just fine. The Seahawks have had major struggles on third down all year, but this is an elite early down offense that can hit some downfield explosives against a defense that just lost excellent safety Talanoa Hufanga to injury for the season.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings also show this as a solid edge to the over. As long as Smith is in, I'd bet the over at 44.5 or lower.
Verdict: Lean Over 43 (Bet to over 44.5 if Geno Smith plays)
Black Friday
Dolphins vs. Jets
The market for this game somehow opened with Miami favored by fewer than seven points. That didn't last long, and it's now 10. The Jets offense hasn't been functional all season long and the Dolphins defense has steadily improved week over week as they've gotten healthier.
The only reason Las Vegas scored any real points offensively last week was due to Miami turnovers. The Raiders had three drives of at least 50 yards against this Miami defense, and one of them came on a 46-yard touchdown bomb to Davante Adams over the top of the Dolphins defense. As good as the Jets defense has played this season, you have to wonder if the quit week is coming soon for that unit.
Miami is still too dynamic offensively to be totally shut down. As bad as Zach Wilson is, Tim Boyle can't really be much of an improvement. In fact, the market thinks he's a downgrade.
It has to be difficult to continue playing elite defense when the offense has scored three offensive touchdowns in five games. It took a fake punt and another fourth-down conversion for the Jets to score a touchdown against a bottom-five Buffalo defense just last week.
Verdict: Pass
The Passes
Patriots vs. Giants
Tommy DeVito had a legacy game last week against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Even despite facing a poor pass rush, DeVito took nine sacks. That's not at all sustainable, nor is the Giants forcing six turnovers.
Now, DeVito faces Bill Belichick, who has destroyed rookies in the past.
There are better games to bet this weekend than to lay points with Mac Jones and this bottom-five offense on the road though.
Verdict: Pass
Panthers vs. Titans
Bryce Young against this Titans secondary is the movable object vs. the stoppable force. Tennessee had no answer for the Jacksonville offense last week when Trevor Lawrence averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and had four combined touchdowns passing and rushing.
The Panthers offense is anemic regardless of who is calling plays, but the Titans offensive line issues and lack of success rate with Will Levis keeps me away from betting this game entirely.
Verdict: Pass
North Carolina sports betting launches in 2024! Check out these sportsbooks expected to launch in NC next year: FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, bet365, BetMGM, and Fanatics Sportsbook
Rams vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals secondary is one of the worst in the NFL, and it didn’t really do much to stop C.J. Stroud last week. Stroud made some bad decisions, but Arizona head coach Jonathan Gannon’s scheme has always struggled against top passing QBs from the pocket.
The Rams offense has always been built around being able to run the ball with Sean McVay’s scheme, but this group is incapable of running it at all and just released goal-line back Darrell Henderson.
This total would be 2-3 points higher in any other year of the NFL, but red-zone efficiency will be harder to come by here with both offenses unable to run it at all. It's Over 44.5 or nothing for me, but there are better games to bet.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Vikings
If there was a Most Improved Team Award from Week 1 to now, it might be Matt Eberflus’ Bears squad. The problem is that Justin Fields has a real sack problem, and the Vikings are going to bring heavy pressure.
The Bears have quietly improved in the trenches on both sides of the ball and have built a decent offensive line, but Fields' numbers against the blitz are quite mediocre.
Chicago and Minnesota played a pretty even game with Kirk Cousins in Chicago last month. That game closed Vikings -3 in Chicago. Flip home field, downgrade to Josh Dobbs and that gets me to Minnesota laying a field goal. I’ll pass here since Dobbs is still a vulnerable favorite given his fumbling issue.
Verdict: Pass
The Leans
Steelers vs. Bengals
Despite the conventional wisdom, there are way bigger problems with the Steelers offense than offensive coordinator Matt Canada. He was fired on Tuesday, but Kenny Pickett still can’t use the middle of the field, the offensive line is middling and Pickett’s downfield accuracy is very below average.
The Bengals defense was exposed last week by the Ravens, who moved the ball up and down the field at will. Cincinnati’s biggest problem has been the safeties and linebackers over the middle of the field, which is where Pickett and this Steelers offense won't be able to take advantage.
Cincinnati is a bottom-three defense by every pass metric this year, but the total is still a bit too high for Jake Browning. Pittsburgh is a bit healthier on defense this week, and Browning cannot execute the isolation outside the numbers routes like Joe Burrow. I don’t really trust this offensive coaching staff to adjust on the fly.
Verdict: Lean Under 34.5; Bet Under 35
Ohio residents can bet the Steelers vs. Bengals with Hard Rock. No Hard Rock Sportsbook promo code required to sign up and get a $1,000 deposit match + 1000 free spins!
Jaguars vs. Texans
Jacksonville’s secondary remains underrated by the market after it completely shut down Tennessee last week. Jacksonville’s second-half pace and aggressiveness, whether trailing or ahead, is notable to the second-half total. Head coach Doug Pederson went for it on fourth down twice while up multiple scores last week, including one up 20 points midway through the fourth quarter.
This game may start slow as both teams attempt (and ultimately fail) to run the ball effectively. Neither offense has been able to run it most of the season, and both have benefitted from turning their young quarterbacks loose. Lawrence has been really inconsistent this season, but he should have success against a bottom-10 Houston secondary. I’d expect scoring to pick up as the game goes on.
The 21-16 final score in the Cardinals-Texans game last week was one of the most misleading of the entire season given how well both offenses moved the ball.
Verdict: Lean 2H Over or Live Over
Buccaneers vs. Colts
The Colts made news on Tuesday cutting linebacker Shaquille Leonard, but he hasn’t been a key part of the defense most of the season. The concern for the Colts is whether teams have figured out Gardner Minshew.
Minshew has really struggled when teams have dropped a ton of defenders into coverage and dared him to beat them. The Buccaneers defense has taken major strides forward against the run, but blitzing is in the DNA of Bucs head coach Todd Bowles. It’ll be interesting to see which approach they go with on Sunday. Assuming Bowles does bring pressure, there are real questions about whether this group of Colts receivers can beat man coverage on the outside
The Buccaneers defense has been elite in the red zone and has benefitted from a ton of fumble-recovery luck, but there’s nothing in the Colts profile that makes me think Indianapolis is the better team.
I’d bet Tampa Bay at +3, but prefer to tease Tampa here.
Verdict: Lean Bucs +2.5, Bet +3; Tease Tampa Bay to +8.5
Chiefs vs. Raiders
I’ve written this each of the last few weeks, but Andy Reid unders in the second half are almost blind at this point. If the total is north of 20.5 and the Chiefs are ahead at the break, I’ll be betting it once again.
Kansas City hasn’t scored a second-half point in the last three games, the pass defense should shut down Aidan O’Connell, and the Raiders defense is elite at taking away explosives and forcing teams to be methodical. All of this is a great recipe for fading the Chiefs offense once Kansas City is off the script. The Chiefs defensive line is quietly dominating this year, and it’s not just Chris Jones anymore.
Verdict: Lean 2H Under
The Picks
Packers vs. Lions
For the second consecutive week, I'm fading the Lions laying more than a touchdown in a divisional matchup. And once again, this is a Green Bay Packers column.
The Packers finally caught some bounces last week in the form of high leverage Chargers drop to help keep the Packers alive in the wild-card race. They still rank near the bottom of our Action Network Luck Rankings and haven't been as bad as their record indicates.
The Lions defense still has too many coverage holes to lay more than seven in this spot. Jordan Love has arguably played his two best games of the season in consecutive weeks in the loss to the Steelers and win over the Chargers. Detroit is ranked 21st in coverage grading by Pro Football Focus, and it's alarming how easily the Bears were able to methodically move the ball last week in Detroit, with five drives that lasted 5+ minutes. The Bears weren't particularly explosive, but 25 first downs for a Chicago offense that had been extremely mediocre all season is alarming for the Lions.
Green Bay is 17th in net yards per drive, and the Lions are below average defensively by EPA per play allowed. Detroit's offense is by far the best unit in the game, but it shouldn't be laying more than seven.
On paper, it's easy to draw up the path to success for the Lions. Detroit has a real advantage in the offensive trench and can exploit a terrible Packers defensive scheme against the run. David Montgomery had 122 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting at Lambeau Field in Week 4. Since then, though, Love has improved and the Packers offensive line is playing like an elite unit, which should lead to Green Bay keeping pace in the Motor City.
If you're looking to play Detroit, I'd expect an explosive run or two from Jahmyr Gibbs.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Saints vs. Falcons
It’s crazy to think that this game — and the rematch in New Orleans — will probably decide the NFC South. Both teams are quite mediocre overall, but the New Orleans defense has shown some real cracks in recent weeks. The Falcons are at the bottom of our Action Network Luck Rankings because they’ve had a ton of high-leverage turnovers and close games swing against them.
Saints quarterback Derek Carr is in concussion protocol still and the high variance nature of this offense under potential backup Jameis Winston is probably not optimal for them to try to rely on their defense to win games. That’s not a ringing endorsement of Carr, but the Saints are a defense-first team that isn’t built to overcome turnovers and short fields at all.
The most surprising unit in this game overall is the Falcons defense. Atlanta is sixth in defensive success rate allowed and only marginally behind New Orleans in the defensive metrics. For me, these two teams are roughly even, and I’m getting Atlanta with a point at home.
Verdict: Bet Falcons +1 (BetMGM)
Browns vs. Broncos
Denver's defense has made real improvements since the demolition in Miami that saw it concede 70 points. But the Broncos' recent offensive success, especially once off the script, is built entirely off of good field position and turnover luck. The Broncos haven't been able to sustain long scoring drives at all, and they'll now face the NFL's best defense. Cleveland is first in every defensive category and completely shut down the Steelers last week outside of one long touchdown run.
Right now, there's not a huge difference between the quality of the Pittsburgh and Denver offenses. This total shouldn't be above 35, either. Pittsburgh had so many injuries on defense that it was essentially starting five practice-squad-caliber players and Dorian Thompson-Robinson managed 13 points. Denver is a better defense than the Steelers D that took the field last week.
The Browns didn't give Thompson-Robinson a chance to throw the ball down the field and kept him entirely to first-read throws. The Broncos offense ranks 25th in success rate since Week 5 and if you remove the first quarter, those numbers fall to the bottom five in the NFL.
I'd bet the under at 35.5 or better and expect the Browns to be once again extremely conservative and try to play defense and field position to a close one.
Bills vs. Eagles
The Eagles were outplayed for large stretches of the Monday Night Football comeback victory against the Chiefs. Philadelphia had fewer yards and first downs, and it needed two Kansas City red-zone turnovers and a high-leverage Marquez Valdes-Scantling drop to pull out the road victory. Both teams have played 10 games this year and the Bills have a better point differential overall. The Bills have run really poorly in close games (2-5), while the Eagles have run better in close games (6-1) than every NFL team not named Pittsburgh.
Buffalo is still a top-five run and offense, according to DVOA, and it has had terrible turnover luck and finishing drives variance that has created a perception that the team is much worse than it actually is. From a buy-low/sell-high perspective, this is a great spot for Buffalo to catch more than a field goal.
The Bills offense is No. 1 in rushing success rate, No. 2 in passing success rate, No. 1 in overall success rate and No. 2 in EPA per play when you exclude turnovers. The biggest criticism of Dorsey was his lack of structure for Allen and his poor play-calling.
That's something that could be improved to help the Bills be more methodical overall. The Eagles have major holes in the secondary that Sean Desai has to scheme around. James Bradberry and Darius Slay are in the bottom 15% in coverage separation allowed.
As long as Buffalo is +3.5 or better, I'm betting the Bills on Sunday. That +3.5 number is disappearing fast, though, so use our NFL odds page to make sure you get it while it lasts.
Verdict: Bet Buffalo +3.5 (-110, PointsBet)
Ravens vs. Chargers
The Chargers defense allowed Green Bay to produce 20+ points and 350+ yards of offense, which had been a struggle for the Packers all season long. The Chargers defense has real personnel issues — Derwin James isn’t the same player he was and now Joey Bosa is on the injured reserve — but the schematic and discipline issues run even deeper.
From missed assignments to poor run defense to coverage busts, the Chargers are the worst defense in the NFL now that the Broncos have improved. For the season, the Chargers are 31st in success rate allowed. There aren't many avenues for the Chargers defense to get any real stops here, and the total is too low for me at 47.
No offense in the NFL has been more impacted by drops than the Chargers, who had five key high-leverage miscues in the loss last week. Justin Herbert is finally healthy and playing at an elite level. They’ll be going pass-heavy early and often, and I do expect the Chargers to move the ball consistently and score some points while playing from behind
The total took money from and moved to 47 at most books (not FanDuel, as of Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET), but I’d bet the over at 47.5 or better.
