NFL Picks, Predictions | Week 13
On Sunday night, our betting analysts found four matchups to target for their early NFL Week 13 picks and predictions. Check out the three spreads and one moneyline they've already bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lions vs. Saints
By Ricky Henne
The Lions haven’t impressed of late, suffering an embarrassing Thanksgiving loss to the Packers one week after narrowly beating the Bears.
Still, laying a mere three points in the opening odds to the Saints feels like a market overreaction. New Orleans is the definition of mediocre, ranking 20th in offensive DVOA and 11th in defense. The Saints are also fresh off a dismal performance against the Falcons that handed Atlanta control of the NFC South. New Orleans repeatedly shot itself in the foot, settling for five field goals to account for all of its points. That’s hardly an anomaly considering it averages only two touchdowns per game, which ranks 17th in the league.
Meanwhile, the Lions rank third in touchdowns per game (3.2). They’re DVOA darlings, especially on offense with rankings of fifth overall, fourth in rushing and seventh in passing.
It’s also worth noting how terrific the Lions have been on the road. They’re 4-1 both straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), with their only loss a complete dud against the Ravens. On the other hand, New Orleans has been terrible at home this season, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS.
To be honest, though, I don’t really need to know any of those numbers to make this bet. The Lions are the more talented team with the better coach, so I’ll happily grab them at the key number of three all day, every day.
You may want to move fast since this has crept up to 3.5 at several books. Nonetheless, I still endorse it at that number if it's all you can get.
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Broncos vs. Texans
We’re fading two teams this week with fraudulent five-game winning streaks.
The Broncos’ turnover luck continued in Week 12, recovering three Browns fumbles. Also, four of the Broncos’ five wins during their streak have come at home. They don’t travel well.
This is like a playoff game for both teams, which are tied at 6-5 with the Colts for the No. 7 seed in the AFC. So, in a playoff environment, what are we looking for? The better team, better quarterback, better coach and home-field advantage.
The Broncos defense is trending upward against the pass, but the pass rush can’t get home. That’s bad news against C.J. Stroud, who will find answers. Even the Texans should be able to run on Denver, too.
The Texans pass defense can be beaten, as Trevor Lawrence did in Week 12, but I have less faith in Russell Wilson doing it.
This 2.5-point spread implies that these teams are equal on a neutral field. Both are 6-5, but I don’t see them as equal.
Be sure you get Houston now in case the spread goes to 3.5.
Chargers vs. Patriots
By Ricky Henne
It’s been a miserable season for the Chargers defense, which has made most quarterbacks look like All-Pros all year long. However, even this unit should easily handle Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe or whatever quarterback Bill Belichick trots out there on Sunday, especially with the L.A. defense coming off a reasonable performance against Lamar Jackson.
The Bolts defense has routinely let down the offense, but it’s hard to see them allowing an unfathomably bad Patriots offense to keep pace with Justin Herbert and company. New England averages the second-fewest points per game in the league (13.5) while the Bolts average nearly twice as many (25.9).
Meanwhile, the Patriots defense has been middling at best. Surprisingly, they’ve been far worse at home, which is crazy considering Gillette Stadium used to provide one of the league’s best home-field advantages. However, they’re allowing 25.6 ppg at home this year, which is the fourth most in the league.
Add it all up and I’d be surprised if the Chargers don’t easily handle the Patriots, taking out their frustrations for what’s been a lost season. Most books have the Bolts laying 5.5 points, but some had it as low as -4 as of Sunday night. I did a double-take when I saw that and pounced immediately.
I’d take this one up to -7.5.
49ers vs. Eagles
What a game, the best team in the NFL … against a 10-1 team.
The Eagles have been out-gained by at least 98 yards in four straight games, and they’ve won each one. The Bills out-gained them by 127 yards, and the Eagles defense couldn’t get off the field. Buffalo, though, gave it away.
Enough with this winning DNA mumbo jumbo, because this team is just lucky. Philly is 7-1 in one-score games, with five of those coming against teams at .500 or worse.
Entering Sunday of Week 12, the 49ers were No. 2 in overall DVOA and the Eagles were 10th. The Niners offense is No. 1 in DVOA and No. 1 in the passing game, and that unit is lapping the field since Week 8.
The Eagles, meanwhile, are 19th against the pass and trending downward. They invested heavily on the D-line and cornerbacks, but there’s a lack of presence over the middle of the field. Ironically, that’s where San Francisco thrives on both sides of the ball.
This is what we waited all season for last year, then the 49ers’ top two QBs getting hurt ruined it. Now, we can bet on the Niners.
Pick: 49ers ML (-120)
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