Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 14-21-1
- Overall: 51-38-1
If you're looking to bet on some ugly underdogs this week, you've come to the right place. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 13 picks for Sunday with all three in the early window.
NFL Predictions: Week 13
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Falcons +1.5 (-115)
I've had this scheduling spot circled for weeks.
Atlanta is coming off of a much-needed bye week, which should allow it to heal up after dealing with several key injuries, while the Chargers will hit the highway for a cross-country road trip on a short week after playing the Ravens in the hyped-up Harbowl with a huge divisional showdown with the Chiefs on deck to boot. From a purely situational angle, this is one of the trickiest scheduling spots of the entire 2024 NFL season.
The Falcons had no significant DNPs on Wednesday's injury report in the defensive backfield after being down a pair of starters in Denver, which is detrimental to a team that can't generate pressure. Center Drew Dalman should also be back, which would give Atlanta its original starting offensive line that profiles as one of the league's best when healthy.
I don't see any reason why the Falcons can't run the ball against an overrated Chargers run defense that has benefited from one of the league's easiest schedules to date. We saw what happened last week when they stepped up in class.
That should set up easy play-action shots for Kirk Cousins, who shouldn't deal with much pressure against a Chargers defense that doesn't get much pressure (19.1%, just ahead of Atlanta's 17.5%). Cousins should pick apart a zone-heavy Los Angeles secondary that isn't 100% healthy at cornerback. The Chargers also might really miss linebacker Denzel Perryman without much depth at the position.
The most noteworthy injury is Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins, who will be sorely missed not only in the running game but also in the passing game. Justin Herbert should be productive with what should be a relatively clean pocket, but his weapons remain very underwhelming on the outside.
In a battle of two quarterbacks who should slice and dice the opposing defenses, I'll take my shot with the healthier home team with the better weapons and in an ideal situational spot. Under a new head coach, the Falcons could really benefit from the bye.
Trending: Home underdogs following a loss of more than 30 points have gone 50-34-4 (59.5%) since 2003.
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction
Panthers +6 (-110)
Don't look now, but Bryce Young is playing good football. He's looked exponentially better than he ever has at this level since returning from his benching. Just take a look at the difference in his Adjusted EPA/play splits in comparison to qualified quarterbacks. He was 31st of 32 quarterbacks last season, 32nd of 32 in his first two starts of this season. Since Week 8, he's 21st of 32. That might not sound great, but his numbers are exponentially better.
Plus, he has nine Big Time Throws to just four Turnover Worthy Plays over the past month compared to a ratio of 18:25 between last season and his first two starts in 2024. His pressure-to-sack ratio has also dropped from 25% prior to getting bench to under 12% over his past four games.
Young is coming off the best game of his career by a wide margin with promising results under pressure and against the blitz last week against the Chiefs, which is critical ahead of a matchup with a Todd Bowles-led defense. He was 11-of-14 for 123 yards and a touchdown against the blitz last week. He had great touch and accuracy downfield, going 9-of-16 for 165 yards on throws at least 10 yards downfield.
Young looks like a completely different quarterback under center with drastically improved footwork and pocket presence. So-called quarterback whisperer Dave Canales has seemingly broken through with Young, and we're seeing some of the same improvements we saw with Baker Mayfield under the tutelage of Canales in Tampa Bay.
Canales knows this Tampa Bay defense extremely well, which should come in handy. I'm sure he's saved a few wrinkles for this specific matchup, but the Panthers offense in general looks the way many expected hoped it would in Week 1.
It helps to have one of the best pass-blocking offensive lines in the league, which is now almost fully healthy. Adam Thielen's return is also a big boost. I think the Panthers can continue that offensive momentum they have built in recent weeks into this game.
The Panthers defense is at least healthy after dealing with a plethora of injuries throughout the first half of the season. Linebacker D.J. Wonnum makes a major difference for a defense that has been allergic to pressure until it sacked Patrick Mahomes five times. Similar to the Panthers offense, I think this unit is undervalued.
This is also a good spot to fade the Bucs, who annihilated a lost Giants team led by Tommy DeVito. Tampa Bay closed at -6 against a much worse quarterback and similarly poor defense last week. Unlike the Giants, the Panthers have a significantly superior offensive line.
I still have Tampa power rated as a below average team and can't get to this price tag. Four of the Bucs' five wins came against the Saints with Spencer Rattler at quarterback; the Eagles without AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Lane Johnson; the Commanders with Jayden Daniels making first NFL start; and DeVito.
Tampa Bay's one impressive victory came in Detroit, which outgained the Bucs 463-216 (+1.0 net yards per play) but went 1-of-7 in the red zone.
Mayfield has played well this season with help from a revamped rushing attack and well-schemed offense under Liam Cohen, but he's still getting away with some throws. Plus, he struggled last season against the Carolina defense led by coordinator Ejiro Evero. Mayfield completed just 34-of-61 attempts for 339 yards (1 TD:1 INT) in those games, in which the Bucs scored just 30 points.
The Bucs have only lost four of 17 fumbles and scored touchdowns on 70% of red-zone trips, ranking second in the NFL. For reference, they finished 27th last year at 48%.
Trending: Teams favored by six or more points for a second straight road game following a double-digit victory have gone just 8-16-1 ATS (33.3%) since 2003, failing to cover by 3.5 points per game on average. Also, Baker Mayfield is just 17-27-1 (38.6%) ATS as a favorite in his career, but he is 6-4 against the number in that role with the Buccaneers.
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Browns vs. Broncos Pick
Panthers +6 (-110)
I'll have more on this pick for a big Monday Night Football preview, but I'm taking the points with this road 'dog.
Is it time to finally fade the Broncos? I'm giving it a shot, as I believe we've finally hit the peak of the market on a Denver team that has already exceeded their preseason win total.
Trending: As a favorite or underdog of less than a field goal, Winston is 13-28-1 ATS (31.7%), failing to cover by a field goal per game. Out of 242 quarterbacks in our Action Labs database who have been in that situation since 2003, only Jay Cutler has been less profitable. However, as an underdog of more than a field goal, Winston is 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%), covering by an average of five points per game. That includes a 13-5-1 ATS mark (72.2%) when catching more than five points.
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