NFL Picks Week 13
I'm on a first-half over and a primetime underdog for my NFL picks in Week 13. Check out my Sunday bets below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dolphins vs. Commanders
This game has the lowest Luck Rankings total rating of the week at -11, but we could be getting a reverse signal here. Week 10 or later, if a game has a Luck Total lower than -7.5, games are 20-12 (62.5%) to the over (not the under!).
I think the best way to attack this is to take the 1H over. The first-half over is 9-2 in Dolphins games and 9-3 in Commanders games.
The Dolphins play at a much faster pace in the first half (10th) and have scripted plays that usually result in wide-open/explosive gains. They have the highest explosive play rate in the NFL, and the Commanders defense have allowed explosive plays at the second-highest rate.
Miami will also be getting back RB DeVon Achane, who has been the most explosive RB in the NFL this season.
On the other side, the Commanders have a very similar style in that they throw at a high rate and have the fourth-highest explosive play rate. The Dolphins just lost Jaelan Phillips for the season, which is a huge blow to their defense and may give Sam Howell more time to throw.
All signs point to this being a high-scoring first half.
Pick: 1H Over 24.5
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Chiefs vs. Packers
Jordan Love and the Packers are heating up with back-to-back wins. They're a team I pegged at the beginning of the season that could potentially start off slow and be much better in the second half, considering this was Love’s first season as a starter, and he had a very inexperienced WR/TE room full of rookies and second-year players.
The Packers seem to be clicking now, and Love has looked much better the last three weeks and ranks in the top five in nearly every key metric over that stretch. He obviously has a much tougher test against a good Chiefs defense but if he can keep up his recent form, they will have a chance to keep this game close.
The Packers defense might also be getting back four starters in De'Vondre Campbell, Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage, and Rudy Ford. They're all questionable but if they can get 1-2 of them back, it’ll be the healthiest they’ve been in weeks.
I think a key matchup will be Rashan Gary going up against Donovan Smith Gary is playing at a high level right now and has the fourth-highest pass rush win rate in the NFL. Smith has been a disappointment at left tackle and has allowed the second-most pressures of all offensive linemen. Gary and the Packers D-line might not be able to get to Mahomes, who is still the toughest QB to sack, but they should be able to get enough pressure on him to make him less efficient.
I think it’s still a good time to be investing in Green Bay right now.
Pick: Packers +6 (-110)
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