NFL Week 14 Picks, Predictions
The Cardinals and Commanders are the only two teams on the NFL schedule that have not yet taken their bye, and they will do so in Week 14.
That leaves us 15 games to make NFL Week 14 picks on, headlined by a critical NFC East clash on Sunday night as the Eagles visit the Cowboys and an AFC matchup between the struggling Chiefs and Bills on Sunday afternoon in Kansas City.
Here are my thoughts on all 15 matchups, including the NFL picks and predictions I’ve already made.
My picks this season are 42-26-2 (61.4%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 14 Picks |
All picks below are based on odds as of 3 p.m. ET.
Thursday Night Football
Patriots vs. Steelers
The total for this game opened at 32.5 and it didn’t take long for it to drop below the key number of 31 and down to 30.5 (even 30 at some books!). There’s no value anymore in betting the under if you missed those key openers, but drawing up a path to success for either offense seems particularly difficult in this matchup.
The Steelers' back seven is quite vulnerable due to injuries now that safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is out with a broken hand, and you’d think the Patriots can’t really exploit that with Bailey Zappe at quarterback on Thursday.
One potential reason to be intrigued by the Patriots was Zappe’s willingness to push the ball down the field. You can hit explosives on this Pittsburgh secondary, and Zappe’s average depth of target was 11.3 on Sunday. There were a few dropped passes over the top of the Chargers defense that could have yielded a different result. Zappe took five sacks and ultimately averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt, but there were opportunities for more success.
The Patriots started 16 of their 24 series on Sunday with a run against the Chargers and had just a 54.2% series success rate on those sets of downs. Rhamondre Stevenson’s high ankle sprain downgrades the New England rushing attack, which has actually been decent this year (eighth in success rate, 18th in EPA per play).
The Steelers couldn’t sustain offensive success last week against a bottom-three defense in the NFL. Say what you want about New England as a whole, but the defense has been good on a play-to-play basis, ranking seventh in success rate allowed and 15th in EPA per play.
The Patriots won’t have much offensive success in this game, but how many points would you need to feel comfortable about your potential New England +5 bet? If the Patriots get to 10, is Mitch Trubisky getting to 15? Consider me highly skeptical that the Steelers find the end zone more than once.
Verdict: Bet New England +6 (+5 or better) | Bet Under at 31.5 or better (currently 30 or 30.5)
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The Passes
Texans vs. Jets
The Jets quarterback situation is not something I’m particularly interested in involving myself with in bets at this current point. There’s negative respect in the market for the Jets offense, and there really shouldn’t be.
Instead of betting this game, let me present a different way of betting Houston. Texans rookie edge rusher Will Anderson just had the best game of his career last week in the win against Denver. His remaining schedule includes two matchups with sack-prone Will Levis, one with pocket statue Joe Flacco and one this Sunday against the Jets quarterback carousel. The Texans now also have an opportunity to steal the AFC South with the Trevor Lawrence injury.
Anderson is going to get a ton of opportunities to pile up sacks and counting stats to bolster his case to be the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winner. The current two competitors and favorites are Eagles DT Jalen Carter and Seahawks CB Devon Weatherspoon. Philly and Seattle's defenses are both primed to get bullied this Sunday by Dallas and San Francisco. Neither guy has the counting stats to make that happen.
Verdict: Pass | Bet Will Anderson Defensive Rookie of the Year (+400, FanDuel)
Panthers vs. Saints
The Panthers were hoping to spark a big effort after Frank Reich and nearly the entire offensive staff were fired. Carolina did manage a cover, but nothing in that offense is encouraging going forward — 3-for-15 on third down, 4.1 yards per play, all while Bryce Young completed less than half of his passes. There was no explosiveness to be found for the Panthers offense.
I’m not laying more than a field goal with Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill, but the Saints should have success running the ball against a poor Carolina run defense.
If the Panthers couldn’t find any offensive success against that Buccaneers defense in that spot, it’s hard to make the case to back them here. If you do, it’s heavily correlated to the under.
Verdict: Pass
You'll be able to bet in North Carolina in 2024! FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM, Fanatics Sportsbook, and bet365 are some of the books expected to launch next year. Get ready for Panthers betting, North Carolina!
Vikings vs. Raiders
There's no rest advantage for either team here since both are coming off a bye week.
We’ll get to see what the Vikings offense looks like with WR Justin Jefferson back in the fold. Given how bad the Raiders secondary has been, Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell will have a lot of options to get creative and get Jefferson involved.
Joshua Dobbs’ "Linsanity" run may be over after a really poor game in Chicago, but this is a much more favorable matchup. The Raiders defense will be passive, soft over the middle and try to take away explosives.
The market is right on for me here. These are two teams I’ve not really had strong takes on this season.
Verdict: Pass
Seahawks vs. 49ers
The other high-profile rematch in the NFC (aside from Eagles vs. Cowboys) comes just two weeks after San Francisco beat the brakes off Seattle in Seattle on Thanksgiving. That game ended 31-13, but the underlying box score really wasn’t that close. Seattle had a huge kick return to set up a field goal and then had a pick-six on a deflection off Brock Purdy to get seven. The Seahawks were in a terrible spot that day because Geno Smith wasn’t fully healthy.
The bigger issue for Seattle here isn’t the offense, but the defense. The Seahawks couldn’t guard the Cowboys in Week 13 on Thursday Night Football without holding. The pressure has disappeared from the defensive profile altogether, and the 49ers offense feels like a supernova right now.
Much like Philadelphia, the primary weakness of the Seahawks is tackling. The Seahawks rank 29th in Pro Football Focus' tackling grade. Good luck against Purdy and the Niners YAC machine. I also have no interest in betting the Niners the week after a huge emotional revenge victory in Philly where the market has them four points better than the rest of the NFL now. Seattle has the rest advantage and could surprise early to keep this close.
It’s also hard to see San Francisco not get to 30 points if it's focused.
Verdict: Pass
Eagles vs. Cowboys
The Eagles hold the tiebreaker with the Cowboys on conference record, so Philadelphia will remain in first place in the NFC East even with a loss on Sunday. It took a month, but the market has finally properly downgraded the Eagles defense. Dallas, Buffalo and San Francisco completely exposed the aging secondary and soft middle of the Eagles defense in the last six weeks. The Eagles have been outgained by 100+ yards in five straight games.
You have to adjust the totals up because the first game was in Philadelphia and this one is on the turf in Dallas. But consider the Cowboys closed +3, their team total was 21.5 and the overall total was 46 in the first matchup. Now in Dallas for the rematch, the Cowboys are -3.5, team total is 28.5 and the game total is 53.5.
The market has properly downgraded the Eagles defense and the market has loved this Dallas offense for a month now. Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level and for my money, no quarterback in the NFL is playing better right now.
Since that last game, the Cowboys have further improved their use of the tight ends over the middle of the field. The Eagles have had no answers for pre-snap motion. The tackling has been mediocre. Philly signed LB Shaq Leonard, but he’s lost a step in coverage and there’s a reason the Colts moved on from him in the middle of a playoff push.
The Eagles should still be able to move the ball on the Cowboys in this game. The Dallas defense has been torched by Seattle and San Francisco this season. Philadelphia had no problems getting to 28 points in three quarters in the first meeting. You can’t lay 3.5 here, even though the trends on these teams would suggest that Dallas could win by multiple scores.
You’ve heard a lot of the media discussing Prescott’s performances in the context of the schedule. For me, the question about the Cowboys legitimacy as a Super Bowl contender comes down to how well the defense holds up against elite competition. Thus far, the results haven’t been pretty. Even Sam Howell was able to move the ball decently well against Dallas. The Eagles offense is nowhere near its best right now, but Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown against man has been very successful for Philly in the past and should be again here.
The total opened 49.5, which was hilariously low. Now at 53.5, I have to sadly pass on the over. Same is true for Dallas, which I’d bet at -2.5, but not at -3.5. Should be a good live betting game.
Verdict: Pass
Titans vs. Dolphins
Miami should have no problems torching the Titans secondary in this game. Tennessee has struggled with explosive pass offenses and now top defender and run-stopper Jeffrey Simmons will miss this game with injury. The Titans defense is a bottom-10 unit and they haven’t been able to scheme and coach around it this season anymore. If the Dolphins are making a concerted effort to get Tyreek Hill to 2,000 yards, this is a game where they’ll look to run it up a bit.
The Dolphins defense is improving considerably, and the Will Levis experience isn’t all that different from Howell last week. There are periods of quality play and success, but the sacks and turnover-worthy plays are a major problem for the rookie second-round pick right now.
Verdict: Pass
The Leans
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
The first of two NFC South matchups that I will be looking for reasons not to bet.
The Falcons are a marginally better team than the Buccaneers on both offense and defense. Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t nearly as good as advertised because it has benefitted from extremely good red-zone variance and fumble luck. The Bucs defense is bottom seven in success rate and EPA per play since Week 8. Tampa Bay ranks 31st in rushing success rate in the same timeframe.
The Falcons offense seemed to find some real success on the ground against the Saints two weeks ago, but that was completely ineffective on the ground against the Jets a week later. The Falcons offense should be better at running than it's been this season, but this number looks right to me.
You could convince me Atlanta should be laying the full three points here, but Desmond Ridder trying to get margin and execute in the red zone when his issues there kept Tampa Bay in the game in these teams' last matchup makes this a pass for me.
Verdict: Lean Atlanta -2.5
Jaguars vs. Browns
Joe Flacco absolutely gave the Browns some juice offensively in the loss to the Rams. It only resulted in 19 points, mainly because the run game was entirely ineffective. The Browns had 30 first-and-10s in the loss in Los Angeles. They had an 80% series success rate on the 20-yard line that began with a pass and a 40% series success rate that began with a run. The biggest play of the game — a long pass to David Njoku — came back because the tight end’s heel was just barely out of bounds before catching the ball and running.
The Browns' scripted drive was a textbook Flacco drive, using the middle of the field and the seams confidently. There are holes in this Jacksonville defense, and I was fully primed to bet an over in this game with a total in the 30s. I figured I’d be writing about how the pass-heavy Jaguars offense can expose Cleveland’s defense that looked very average last Sunday against the Rams.
Now, Lawrence is hurt and seems unlikely to play and Christian Kirk is out for the season. The market flipped from Jaguars -3 to +3, which is probably an overreaction in a game with a total this low. The bigger issue for offense in this game is the weather. Rain is in the forecast, with winds of 25-30 mph.
The Jaguars run defense is still elite, even if it had a hiccup on Monday against the Bengals. Myles Garrett played Sunday against the Rams, but it was a cardio effort for him. He didn’t record any counting stats and had just two pressures.
As long as the line is +3, I’d lean Jacksonville. If it goes back to 2.5, the Jaguars are still the best teaser spot on the board this week for me.
Verdict: Lean Jaguars +3, bet at +3.5 | Great teaser spot
Broncos vs. Chargers
The Broncos' best path to success in this game is running the ball against a mediocre Chargers defensive front. Denver's offense has benefitted a ton from short fields due to defensive turnover luck, and it has made the offense look much better than it really is. It’s the textbook definition of mediocre offense thus far in 2023.
Denver is 22nd in dropback success rate and 21st in EPA per play, while the run offense is slightly above average. When the Broncos are on the script early in games, they’ve been pretty effective moving the ball. After that, it reverts back to well below league average at 25th in EPA per play in the second halves of games.
The Broncos defense has some real regression coming too, but the Chargers aren't the offense to exploit that because they’re too limited and one-dimensional. No offense has lost more EPA to drops than the Chargers this year.
The Chargers are completely incapable of running the ball offensively. The entire offense right now is throwing the ball to Keenan Allen. Given that the Broncos have an elite cover corner in Patrick Surtain, it will be difficult for the Chargers to sustain any consistent offense. The Chargers' run block grades are also the worst in the NFL.
It’s just a lean for me at 43.5. If this total gets to 45, I’d bet the under.
Verdict: Lean Under 43.5
Packers vs. Giants
Jordan Love continues to improve rapidly. The question after he diced up the Lions and Chargers was whether he could replicate that performance against a high-quality defense, and Love had no issues methodically dicing up the Chiefs.
The Packers only had three drives in the first half: two long touchdown drives and one that stalled out just past midfield. Green Bay will continue to get healthier on offense, the offensive line is a top-five unit and it’s hard to imagine the Giants staying competitive in this game.
Tommy DeVito and the Giants have a considerable rest advantage after their bye week. There’s heavy rain and wind forecasted for this game, as well, which means the Giants should lean heavily on the run game. That’s the Packers' weakness defensively and could help the underdog stay competitive.
DeVito is a really nice story after back-to-back wins, but the Giants needed tremendous amounts of turnover luck to beat Washington, while New England's incompetence and turnovers swung that game. DeVito has been good at taking sacks and not turning it over to give his defense a chance, but it could all fall apart if playing from behind in these conditions.
Green Bay is a great teaser piece down to -0.5, and I lean toward Green Bay as the side. The messy weather keeps me off of it, though.
Verdict: Lean Green Bay -6.5
NFL Week 14 Picks
Colts vs. Bengals
The Colts and Titans played the wildest game of Week 13, one that featured two blocked punts, a missed extra point with an emergency holder, and a Will Levis interception and forced fumble on the same play. The Colts will now travel to play the Bengals after Jake Browning played the game of his life in a Monday night upset of the Jaguars.
If you looked at the skill positions in this game, you’d rule it a no-contest in favor of the Bengals. Cincinnati’s perimeter weapons are far superior to the Colts overall and they can certainly be more explosive overall as a result. With the quarterback situation basically a wash, every other advantage goes to Indianapolis here.
This is one of the many games that will be impacted by weather in the NFL this week. The expectation is 20 mph winds and rain in Cincinnati, which will limit the ability of either offense to throw the ball down the field.
That leads me to the trenches, where there’s a clear Colts advantage on both lines. Indianapolis will also get its top run-stopper, nose tackle Grover Stewart, back from suspension for this game. The run defense was a top-10 unit with him in there and drifted outside the top 20 once he was suspended.
While Stewart was out, the Colts found a real pass rush. Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo are all tracking to have 10-sack seasons. The Colts are in the top 10 in pass rush win rate.
The biggest weakness of the Colts defense is in the secondary, but the conditions could nullify those issues. Cincinnati’s defense is bottom five in run defense this year and the entire Colts offensive line’s PFF grades have trended upward considerably this season. Indianapolis has had some good fortune go its way to get to 7-5, but the market is giving Browning and the Bengals an upgrade off Monday that is a bit overblown here.
We’ve seen a backup flash for a week before regressing to what he really is. Given the Colts trench and run game advantage, I’ll bet them at -2.5 or better in Week 14. You can get Colts -1 everywhere except FanDuel, where it's -1.5, as of 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday. Get the latest Week 14 odds here.
Verdict: Bet Colts -1 (-2.5 or better)
Bet Colts vs. Bengals at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
Lions vs. Bears
The Bears defense has made significant improvements from Week 1 to now. Chicago was the worst defense in the NFL in head coach Matt Eberflus' first season, but he’s found some pieces that work and now they catch the Lions in an excellent home spot.
This total was bet down from 46.5 to 41 and now 40, which still may not be quite low enough given the weather conditions. There are 30 mph winds expected in Chicago for this game, and that spells major trouble for the Lions offense that has Jared Goff as its quarterback.
No one is going to be particularly effective in those windy conditions, but bad weather has spelled real doom for Goff in the past. Since October began and the weather would theoretically start to become a factor, the Lions have played four road games. They played at Tampa Bay, at New Orleans (dome), and at Los Angeles. The fourth road game was at Baltimore, the only game where Goff had to deal with real conditions, and that was the worst game he's played all season. Going back to his time with the Rams, it’s the same story.
The Lions can lean on their run game to try to win this game, but center Frank Ragnow is dealing with injury and is questionable to play on Sunday. Since Week 8, Chicago is eighth in EPA per play allowed, 10th in success rate allowed and is first in rush success rate allowed. The Bears run defense has really improved and that spells trouble for the Lions on the road here.
Detroit has a bottom-five secondary since then and has really struggled with mobile quarterbacks especially. The Bears had five drives of more than 5 minutes in the last meeting and there will be plenty of long, methodical drives built around the run in this game.
I lean Bears +3.5 here. I bet the total at 43 on Monday, but that number is long gone. It started Tuesday at 41 but has since dipped below 40.5 as of 3 p.m. ET. I think an alternative play would be betting the under on the Lions team total at 22.5 or higher.
Update: The wind projections for this game are down significantly as of Wednesday afternoon. As a result, multiple sportsbooks are now offering the total at 44.
Verdict: Bet Under 44 (Bet to 41) | Lions Team Total Under 22.5 (-120, DraftKings)
Rams vs. Ravens
The market is still catching up to how improved the Rams offense is at the moment. Most casual NFL fans also probably can’t name more than one player on the Rams defense (Aaron Donald), but it’s a really young group that has found some real playmakers and quality all-around play in the last month.
The sample is small for the offense, but the Rams are fifth in EPA per play offensively since Matthew Stafford returned from injury for the Seattle game. Kyren Williams makes a huge difference right now in the running game, mostly because the other options in the backfield are so bad. The Rams rank in the top five in EPA per rush since Week 11, and that includes a game against an elite Browns defensive unit.
The Rams offense under Sean McVay was at its best with a functional running game — think Todd Gurley NFC Champion Rams — and Williams' ability in space and to run off tackle fundamentally changes the play sequencing for the Rams.
Los Angeles had no problem moving the ball up and down the field against that Cleveland defense, and I think it can replicate some of that success against another elite defense in Baltimore.
Because of the scheduling quirks, the Ravens do have one of the biggest rest advantages in the NFL in this spot. Baltimore played a Week 11 Thursday night game at home against Cincinnati on Nov. 16. When the Ravens take the field in Week 14, they’ll have played one game in 24 days.
That one game was the first since the major injury to TE Mark Andrews. Baltimore’s run offense should find success here, but Andrews is a huge loss for the offense. Lamar Jackson had a sub-60% completion rate against the Chargers, just the third time all season he's done that. It’s hard to do that against a Brandon Staley-schemed defense, but Jackson also had his lowest yards per attempt of the season.
For the second straight week, I’ll back the Rams. This time, they’re catching a touchdown against a Ravens offense that has extended rest but still has much to prove without Andrews.
Make sure you get +7 with the Rams. FanDuel was the only book posting +7.5, as of 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
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Bills vs. Chiefs
The game of the week in the AFC as Buffalo fights for its playoff life at 6-6. The Bills are entering a gauntlet here with the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots (never mind) and Dolphins to close the schedule. They need four wins to have any chance. The Bills come into Kansas City with a huge rest advantage after their bye week, while Kansas City had to play a road game on Sunday night.
The market moved off of three here, but I’m not sure the Chiefs have any real advantages in this matchup. Yes, the Chiefs are better defensively in the secondary, but Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level in the last month. Buffalo put up 500+ yards on Philadelphia two weeks ago, and Allen’s scrambling on late downs was massive for extending drives.
The Bills are a top-five offense in both rushing and passing EPA per play. They couldn’t run it on Philly, but it’s considerably easier to run on the Kansas City front. Most people have had the same takes about the Chiefs offense all year. It goes something like this: “Yeah, the Chiefs don’t look quite right, but they have Patrick Mahomes, and it’s only (insert month here).” The reality? It’s December, and the Chiefs have one reliable wide receiver and Travis Kelce.
We give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt because he’s in his prime. That’s not the case for Kelce anymore. He doesn’t look nearly as explosive, his yards per reception are down and either he’s starting to show his age or he’s not fully healthy.
Buffalo will hand Kansas City a second straight loss because its offense is operating at a higher level right now. The Bills defense has improved its play in the last few weeks and now had a bye week to get right, too.
