NFL Picks Week 15
I'm on a home underdog and ugly under for my NFL Week 15 picks. Check out my Sunday bets below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs. Panthers
The Falcons probably shouldn’t be favored by three or more points on the road against anyone right now, not even the Panthers, especially based on the injury report.
Desmond Ridder has seen a huge dip in efficiency on the road. At home, he ranks in the top 20 in a few key metrics and 12th in success rate. On the road, he's outside the top 30-35 in most key metrics.
There’s going to be a ton of rain and wind in this game, so both teams will likely be very run-heavy. Normally, that would be ideal for the Falcons, but they're dealing with injuries along the offensive line.
Starting right tackle Kaleb McGary has already been ruled out, and fellow starters Jake Matthews, Drew Dalman and Chris Lindstrom have all been limited at practice and are questionable. The loss of McGary is already huge but if another O-lineman ends up getting ruled out, it could be a serious issue.
The Falcons are also dealing with some key injuries on defense. Nose tackle David Onyemata has been ruled out again, further weakening a D-line that lost Grady Jarrett back in Week 8. Linebacker Nate Landman is another key defender who has been out since Week 13 and is questionable for this one.
The only key player for Carolina that was on the injury report was Brian Burns, but he’s expected to play.
The Falcons shouldn’t be favored by the key number of three, and I want to lock it in before they potentially have one or more key players held out and this number drops to 2.5 or lower.
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Bears vs. Browns
I mentioned last week how much better the Bears defense has been since they acquired Montez Sweat back in Week 9. They rank sixth in DVOA since then, while the Browns still rank first for the entire season.
The Browns offense has been much better with Joe Flacco under center, but this is a game where we should see rain and heavy wind at times, which could slow the unit down a bit. Plus, the Browns will be without starting center Ethan Posic, which isn’t ideal considering they’ve already lost three starting offensive linemen this season.
On the Bears side, D.J. Moore has been dealing with an ankle injury. That and the inclement weather could prevent the Bears from some explosive plays in the passing game.
This game has a Luck Total of -8.2. And while that has had a reverse signal toward the over, it’s pretty split with both teams responsible for about -4 points each. I’m going to take the liberty of saying this total is a bit high based on all the factors above and want to lock it in at 37.5 since 37 is a pretty key number when it comes to totals.
