NFL Week 15 Picks, Predictions
The NFL is playing on four days in Week 15 in its quest to dominate every single day of our lives. Bye weeks are over and all 32 teams are in action for the final four weeks of the regular season.
Two teams have been eliminated from playoff contention — the Patriots and the Panthers. The 30 other teams are alive and only one — the 49ers — has clinched a playoff spot thus far.
Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 15 matchups, including the NFL picks and predictions I’ve already made.
My picks this season are 47-27-2 (63.5%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 15 Picks |
All picks below are based on odds as of 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.
Thursday Night Football
Chargers vs. Raiders
Our Action Network luck rankings suggest you should play the over in this contest at 34.
I’m sure the under will be a popular public pick after the Raiders were shut out while the Chargers — now without Justin Herbert for the season — have scored one touchdown in two weeks. The market is well aware with the number this low on a fast turf in Las Vegas.
It’s over or nothing. Don’t be surprised if Aidan O'Connell and Easton Stick turn it over a lot and give up some short fields.
Verdict: Pass; lean over 34
The Passes
Vikings vs. Bengals
The stock of the Vikings defense is at an all-time high after Brian Flores’ unit pitched a shutout against Las Vegas.
Flores somehow has this Minnesota defense in the top five by EPA per play and deserves to win coordinator of the year. He’s going to bring the blitz against Cincinnati, but credit to Brian Callahan, Zac Taylor and the Bengals' offensive staff for scheming some awesome stuff for Jake Browning.
Browning shined yet again against the Colts defense and took my money. The Bengals have a new playmaker to utilize in Chase Brown — he’s a real weapon in the receiving game and will be a great antidote to Minnesota's blitzing.
The Bengals offense matches up well here, but you’re buying high on Browning. The insertion of Nick Mullens marks the official end of Joshua Dobbsanity, but also makes the Vikings offensive outlook more uncertain.
This is one of the most high-variance games of Week 15 from a range of outcomes perspective, and I’ll be excited to watch it even if I’m in the line with the market.
Verdict: Pass
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Broncos vs. Lions
Denver and Detroit are teams I want to bet against right now.
The Lions were able to mask their poor secondary by playing bad offenses and quarterbacks, and the pass rush was getting home enough to hide the deficiencies. Not anymore. The Ravens scored 38, Jordan Love had one of the best games of his career on Thanksgiving and Chicago managed 26 and 28.
The story has been the same even in Detroit's victories. The Saints scored 28 points despite not having a functional offense for weeks. The same is true of the Chargers, who went score for score with the Lions and managed 38 points. You’d expect the market to adjust the Lions down off their divisional road loss to Chicago, but the opposite has happened.
Someone bet Detroit pretty big on Monday from -3.5/-4 to -5. It’s in a bit of a dead zone there between four and six.
I think Denver’s run of winning is built on a house of cards, but I can’t get to this number for Detroit, even with the Broncos' incredible turnover luck of late. The Broncos' dominant performance on defense last week said more about the Chargers' lack of a running game, absent secondary weapon and a banged up Keenan Allen.
Since Week 9, the Lions have the worst pass defense in the NFL by a wide margin. The Broncos have the best pass defense in the NFL, even if you entirely remove turnovers from the sample.
Defensive play can be extremely volatile over the course of a season, so I’d actually look to buy low and sell high on these respective defenses. The number isn’t good enough on Detroit to do that, sadly.
Verdict: Pass; lean Detroit because of the spot but can’t bet this number
Falcons vs. Panthers
Another Desmond Ridder road favorite spot.
It’s Panthers or nothing, but if you bet on them last week and are signing up for three more hours of hell to maybe cash a -110 bet on the +3, I wish you the best.
Last week, Carolina had more first downs, 100 more yards and actually had a very successful rushing attack. The problem is the Panthers lost two fumbles, had a punt blocked for a touchdown and Bryce Young took four sacks while going 13-for-36. Do you know how hard it is to go 1-for-7 on fourth down in an NFL game? The Panthers did that.
Situationally, both of these teams are a disaster. Chris Tabor as interim Carolina head coach doesn’t appear to give them any real edge. Easiest pass on the board.
Verdict: Pass
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Jets vs. Dolphins
One of my betting regrets of the entire season was not grabbing the Jets north of 10 on the lookahead prior to Monday night.
The Dolphins were clearly overvalued in the market in that Tennessee game; the matchup was not favorable for the Titans at all and I am generally lower than the market on them right now. I was hoping the Dolphins would win to set up an excellent Jets spot.
But after Miami lost as a two-touchdown favorite in a game where it was gifted multiple touchdowns, the market has come steaming down on them. New York was as high as 11.5 on the lookahead — it’s nice that Zach Wilson had a great game, but there’s not much value left in betting against Miami here.
There was nothing flukey about the Titans' cover and win if you look at the final box score. Tennessee had more first downs, more total yards and more yards per play. I begrudgingly pass here though we’re setting up for a potentially excellent Dallas spot next week against an overrated Miami team.
Verdict: Pass
Texans vs. Titans
C.J. Stroud is in concussion protocol, and that's not great for his prospects of playing in this game.
The market is pricing Stroud to be out, which he probably will be. We've started to see some players come out of concussion protocol as the games become more important down the home stretch of the season. I certainly don’t want to be stuck laying points with Tennessee if he is ruled in come Friday, so I’m passing.
At three, I’d consider buying some Houston as a free roll that Stroud plays and Tennessee comes out flat on a short week after a miracle comeback win.
Verdict: Pass
Chiefs vs. Patriots
Let’s be honest: The Patrick Mahomes outburst didn’t really have anything to do with the offsides call on Kadarius Toney. It was his way of expressing frustration about the disaster wide receiving room that is ruining the Chiefs.
Once again, a Chiefs opponent has a major rest advantage over them. Last week, Buffalo came to Kansas City off the bye. Now, New England is at home off the mini bye. This late in the season, those extra days really add up.
There were briefly 10s in the market and I would have bet New England at 10, but it’s hard to see the Patriots replicating any real offensive success after that absurd first half in Pittsburgh. Bailey Zappe excelled against a weak Pittsburgh secondary, but the Steelers made halftime adjustments and shut down the Patriots in the second half.
New England's defense is playing at an elite level against the run right now. A Patrick Mahomes total at 37 feels wrong, but it’s warranted to me as the Pats will neutralize Travis Kelce. I’ll be looking to bet live unders if there’s an early score on the script by either offense.
As we get deeper into the game, the Chiefs offense could flounder and Steve Spagnuolo's in-game adjustments should shut down New England.
Verdict: Pass; look for live under after potential pre-game script scores
Commanders vs. Rams
After two consecutive winning bets on the Rams (and pretty easy covers), the market has finally adjusted them up considerably.
This is not a great situational spot, even if the Washington defense matches up poorly with an in-form Matthew Stafford. The Commanders are coming off a bye while the Rams had to play overtime in a heartbreaking game in Baltimore.
If you like the Rams, I think it’s better to play them to make the playoffs. They need to win this game and the schedule is quite favorable until Week 18 with the Saints and Giants on tap.
If they’re 9-7 headed into Week 18, it would take one of the other 6-7 teams getting really hot to pass them even if they lost to San Francisco on the final day.
Verdict: Pass; bet Rams (+160) to make playoffs
The Leans
Steelers vs. Colts
This is a "loser leaves town" matchup in the muddled AFC Wild Card picture as both Pittsburgh and Indianapolis enter this game at 7-6.
It’s the Colts' second island game of the year, and this one has the potential to be just as ugly as Colts-Patriots in Frankfurt. Bailey Zappe’s first-half performance against the Steelers showcased just how vulnerable the middle of the Pittsburgh defense is, largely due to linebacker injuries and performance. Hunter Henry and Ezekiel Elliott both exploited the inability of Pittsburgh's linebackers to cover in space, and now Steelers could be without its top two pass rushers, too.
Kenny Pickett is out another week, which means Mitch Trubisky at quarterback again. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are both questionable, though the Steelers have two extra days of rest heading into this game. Highsmith left last week with a neck injury and didn’t return. Watt is in concussion protocol after he finished the game but reported symptoms on Friday.
The Colts defense was embarrassed in space by the Bengals' offensive weapons — and an accurate Jake Browning — last week. Returning home, the Colts face a considerably more friendly matchup.
Indianapolis’ scheme matches up well with the Steelers, who don’t really use the middle of the field and run a lot of isolation routes to the perimeter. It’s hard to run on the Colts now that Grover Stewart is back in the lineup as well.
Indianapolis is much healthier and it’s a strong lean toward them at anything -2.5 or better. If Watt and Highsmith can’t go, anything -2.5 or less is a bet for me. Just three weeks ago, we saw the Colts exploit an injured defense at home when they beat the Buccaneers as 2.5-point favorites. Pittsburgh is worse than that Bucs team on both sides of the ball if Watt can’t go.
Verdict: Lean Colts -2.5; monitor Watt and Highsmith injuries
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Eagles vs. Seahawks
The Eagles' run through the gauntlet may technically be over, but this game was moved to Monday Night Football and the Seahawks are playing for their season. Philadelphia can’t afford to slip up in the division or race for the first seed in the NFC.
Geno Smith didn't play on Sunday, but he thew on the field prior to the game against San Francisco. I fully expect him to play and be close to 100%.
Philadelphia’s defensive line was bullied in consecutive weeks against San Francisco and Dallas, which almost never happens. Not including kneel downs, the Eagles defense conceded scores on 10 consecutive possessions from the second quarter against the Niners to halftime of the Dallas game — nine touchdowns, one field goal. The Eagles didn’t stop the run or the pass and the inability to get to the quarterback left the secondary exposed.
The Eagles get an extra day of rest to get ready for MNF, but it’s hard to know exactly how much juice they’re going to have. They've played Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas in a row. The defensive issues are now well known by the market, but what about the offense?
There are issues against the blitz, a lack of creativity in the run game and overreliance on talent over scheme. Those are the problems. Seattle’s defense may be the answer to fix the offensive issues. The Seahawks struggle with tackling and aren’t good in coverage without committing penalties — a major issue against Philadelphia's receivers in man coverage.
Ultimately, it’d be Seattle or nothing for me if this line were higher than three. I know Seattle will be all-in playing for its season, but at some point, the Eagles have the 11th-best point differential in the NFL and are still being priced like a top-six team. They might be a top-six team still, but I’m not going to buy them at that price in this spot.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks +3.5 or better
NFL Week 15 Picks
Bears vs. Browns
The Browns defense played from ahead almost the entire game against the Jaguars, and that's with Jacksonville scoring two fourth-quarter touchdowns despite just four yards per play. It’s true the Browns defense has regressed from historically good territory.
In fact, the Browns defense is down to fifth in EPA per play since Week 9. Despite this, the biggest takeaway last week for the Cleveland defense long term and for the future is that Myles Garrett looked like the Defensive Player of the Year again.
Garrett didn’t record a sack, but he had seven pressures and three QB hits, which is the most and second-most he’s had in those two categories all season. The market priced Cleveland’s defense in historically good territory earlier in the year; there’s been a downgrading since.
The question and biggest X-factor in this matchup is what to make of Joe Flacco. You could make a solid argument that Flacco is the best quarterback on the Cleveland roster to run Kevin Stefanski's offense. Flacco's excellent at using play action and throwing down the field for explosives on longer developing plays.
Still, the vastly improved Browns offense is 17th in success rate and 23rd in EPA per play in the last two weeks with Flacco. That was in games against the Rams and Jaguars, two defenses that aren't above average by any metric. Compare that to the Bears defense, which has made steady and real underlying improvements.
This total seems a touch high to me. It’s hard to run on Chicago and the Browns defense has a healthier Garrett. While Cleveland left the backdoor open a lot against Trevor Lawrence, I don’t expect the same door to be open against Justin Fields.
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Buccaneers vs. Packers
After a week off from backing the Packers in this column, I’m back for more Jordan Love.
It’s true that Love showed inconsistency and accuracy issues in the loss to the Giants. He had a fumble and a poor interception to help keep the Giants in this game. But the NFL season is full of bad situational spots and good ones, and Green Bay was in a very poor one on Monday. Not only were the Giants coming off their bye week, but Green Bay was fresh off its biggest win of the season — that’s a difficult road primetime spot for a young roster.
As a result of that poor showing, we now get to buy the improving Packers at a discount.
Tampa Bay won the battle for first place in the NFC South invitational last week, but it lost the box score and needed a crucial Desmond Ridder turnover and final-minute drive to win that game in Atlanta.
The Buccaneers started the season 3-1 on the back of really good third-down variance and turnover luck. Since then, the Bucs are 3-6 with a win against Will Levis, Carolina at home by three and Atlanta by four. Atlanta finished the game with 6.3 yards per play and 143 more total yards than Tampa Bay.
The clear weakness of Green Bay's defense is against the run. The Buccaneers have a large sample of not being able to move the ball on the ground — they are 30th in rush success rate and 24th in EPA per rush. By box score, Tampa Bay should be downgraded more than Green Bay.
Instead of laying 3.5, we get to lay 3 at some books.
Verdict: Bet Packers -3 (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook, need -3); lean at -3.5
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Giants vs. Saints
As an Italian American, I am enjoying Tommy DeVito's Linsanity-esque run as much as the next paisan.
How are the Saints laying six against any team right now? This is quite remarkable when you look at the box score from the Carolina game. It's one of the most misleading final scores of the entire season as Carolina lost by 22 despite winning the box score stats.
You can say that Carolina is a disaster situationally and in high leverage. But that does not excuse New Orleans putting up that train-wreck box score this late in the season. Carolina averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Brian Daboll didn’t just forget how to coach overnight and he did have the bye week to figure out what works with DeVito.
Daboll used DeVito’s legs heavily. The Giants quarterback didn’t take a single sack while Derek Carr was 18-of-26 for 119 yards. The Saints' run defense has fallen off a cliff in the last month and their aging defensive core is showing their age.
You’re buying at the peak of DeVito, but there’s just no way the Saints should be laying six. Any Giants bet should probably be accompanied by a moneyline bet given the high-variance nature of DeVito.
The Giants have a better defense, better coach and they’re better situationally.
Verdict: Bet Giants +6
49ers vs. Cardinals
One oddsmaker said the 49ers are five points better than every other team in the NFL prior to their 12-point win against the Seahawks.
Brock Purdy is the second favorite for the NFL MVP. San Francisco has won five straight games since the bye, all by double digits. The 49ers haven’t been playing bad teams either — they beat the Jaguars by 31, the Buccaneers by 13, the Eagles by 23 and the Seahawks by 18 and 12.
There’s a buy and sell point for every team, and this is a dream spot to bet against the 49ers. San Francisco is in the middle of a gauntlet stretch in its schedule. Two division wins against the rival Seahawks plus a dominant road revenge win against the Eagles. Waiting on deck for the Niners is a Monday Night Football game against the Ravens that will likely decide the No. 1 seed in both conferences.
In between those games is a road divisional game in Arizona against one of the league’s worst teams. The 49ers are two-touchdown favorites despite the fact that Arizona has extended rest off the bye week.
Trying to make the case for the Cardinals is a difficult one, but it’s clear from the win in Pittsburgh that they can move the ball pretty well with Kyler Murray back at quarterback. Arizona is 2-2 with Murray and I’d bet them at +13 or better.
Verdict: Bet Cardinals +13 or better
Cowboys vs. Bills
This is the game of the week in the NFL as Buffalo continues its charge to the playoffs. The door is now open for the Bills to win the AFC East in Week 18 if Miami stumbles once or twice in the home stretch and Buffalo keeps winning. You’re absolutely paying a tax for the spot here on Buffalo though and I don’t see much value in betting them as a 2.5-point favorite.
The market is implying that Buffalo is a better team than Dallas, which is hard to square given that Dallas clearly has the second-best offense right now. The biggest weakness for the Bills is the lack of a consistent pass rush to threaten Dallas. The Cowboys' offensive line is a top-five unit right now; Buffalo is 13th in pass rush, per PFF.
Dak Prescott will have time in the pocket and the Dallas offense is nearly a lock to get to 24 points. The real question is whether the Cowboys defense will hold up.
If you just looked at the scoreline, you’d think that Dallas’ defense dominated Philly. That wasn’t really the case as the Eagles had 6.2 yards per play and found success through the air. Dallas won with some well-timed blitzes — an area Philly struggles but Buffalo does not. The Cowboys also forced two fumbles deep in their own territory and one at midfield to stop Philly drives.
Dallas just won its revenge game of the season in convincing fashion on Sunday night against Philadelphia. The Cowboys offense remains a dynamo, but I think Buffalo scores plenty. There’s one interesting angle on the Cowboys this year. They don’t rank that high in pace, but it’s because they are extremely slow in the second half and have played a lot of blowouts.
The situation-neutral pace for Dallas is second in the NFL. If the game is close, which it should be, the Cowboys will be playing fast.
Verdict: Bet Over 50.5 points
Ravens vs. Jaguars
We get a matchup with two excellent quarterbacks that is somehow totaled at 43.5. If this game were played in Baltimore in bad weather, the total would make considerably more sense to me. But this game is in Jacksonville — not to mention Trevor Lawrence's right ankle gets another week of recovery.
Ravens do-everything defender Kyle Hamilton is week to week with an MCL sprain, and you have to think they’ll be cautious with him given that San Francisco is looming.
I bet against the Ravens last week and made the point that we hadn’t seen Lamar Jackson play a great game without Mark Andrews. Now, we have. Jackson was in peak form against the Rams, leading a go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. He threw for 316 yards and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. The Ravens moved the ball up and down the field, but Matthew Stafford did the same to an allegedly elite defense.
There’s been a lot of bad quarterback play in the NFL this year and the scoring environment is way down as a result. It has inflated the market view on some of defenses, and these two are no exception. Jacksonville’s defense is in the midst of a nose dive overall after getting smoked by Jake Browning and Joe Flacco in consecutive weeks.
The Jaguars' defensive scheme forces teams to prioritize passing, which would only help the over. Simply put: These two quarterbacks are way too good for this total to be sitting at 43.5. I’d play the over to 44.5.
