NFL Picks, Week 16 Predictions: Bets We've Already Made
On Sunday night, our betting analysts found two games to target for their early NFL Week 16 picks and predictions. Check out the spreads they've already bet, including a case for both sides of Bengals vs. Steelers.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:15 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Saints vs. Rams
I gave out this lookahead pick on Friday’s best bets podcast. After Sunday’s games, the line still hasn’t moved so I’m doubling down.
The Rams jumped out to a 20-0 lead on Washington and coasted until garbage time when the Commanders made things interesting. The Saints have won two straight, but it’s hard to be impressed with blowout wins over the Giants and Panthers.
Sportsbooks are rating these teams – both 7-7 – as equals. Before Sunday, the Rams were 17th in overall DVOA and the Saints 21st.
However, in five games leading up to Sunday, the Rams were ninth in overall DVOA, second in offensive DVOA behind the 49ers and league average on defense. The Saints, on the other hand, were 30th in overall DVOA, bottom 10 on offense and 30th in defense.
The Saints are dealing with injuries up and down the roster to key players. It’s possible this game means less to them and they rest players for Week 17 against the Buccaneers.
New Orleans’ run defense ranks 31st over the last five games, which isn’t great news against Kyren Williams, who’s been shredding teams.
On short weeks, Sean McVay is 5-2 against the spread. These teams are not equals – give me L.A. all day. I got this at Rams -3.5 on Sunday night but would still consider -4 to be playable.
Pick: Rams -4 (-110)
Bengals vs. Steelers
By Ricky Henne
I did a double-take when I saw this line as I’m struggling – and I mean struggling – to find reasons why the Bengals are only -2.5. I fully expected it to be a few points higher.
These teams are heading in drastically opposite directions with backup quarterbacks leading the way. Jake Browning hasn’t just held his own but has been one of the best passers in the league since taking over for an injured Joe Burrow. He’s made history in the process, becoming the only quarterback to ever throw for at least 1,000 yards while completing 75% of his attempts in his first four career starts.
I’m extra bullish on the Bengals this week after Browning’s performance in Cincinnati’s rousing overtime win over the Vikings. He authored only the fifth comeback in franchise history when down by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter, leading the Bengals to three touchdown drives to send the game to overtime. He has the “it factor” right now, and I tend to ride these types of runs as long as they last.
On the other hand, the free-falling Steelers are in disarray. Mitch Trubisky’s been awful in relief of Kenny Pickett and was yanked in favor of Mason Rudolph late in Saturday’s loss to the Colts. There's a chance Kenny Pickett returns ahead of schedule from ankle surgery as reports are he's pushing to play. However, he wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire before he went down.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled during its three-game losing streak. They still rank seventh in DVOA but have given up 25.0ppg over that span, which is the seventh-most in the league as of Sunday night. They’ve allowed over 20 points in each game after keeping teams under 20 in seven straight games dating back to Week 4.
This line has already moved from -1.5 to -2.5, and I think there’s a good chance it will continue to climb. I already put multiple units on it, and I’d take it up to -4.5.
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Bengals vs. Steelers
This is the ultimate “rah rah, Mike Tomlin” spot.
It’s ugly in Pittsburgh with the Steelers losing three straight against the Cardinals, Patriots and Colts — and those games weren’t particularly close. The Steelers’ playoff hopes are now on life support.
That’s exactly when you back Tomlin — as well as a good matchup.
Cincinnati is awful against the run and over the middle against the pass, which is good news for TE Pat Freiermuth. The Steelers have a top-five run offense over their last six games, while Cincinnati has a bottom-five run defense. Also, the Bengals’ banged-up offensive line could struggle against the Steelers pass rush.
Now, for the trends:
From Week 5 on as an underdog, Tomlin is 44-20-1 (69%) against the spread (ATS). It’s even better at home in that situation, as he’s 15-4-1 (79%)ATS. Oh, and it’s 21-5-1 (81%) in divisional games. After a loss of seven or more points? Tomlin’s Steelers are 9-1 (90%) ATS.
Once again, rah rah, Tomlin.
Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-110)
