NFL Week 17 Picks & Predictions
The penultimate week of the NFL regular season is upon us, and just two of the eight NFL divisions have been clinched. The 49ers and Lions have locked up home playoff games in January, and the Dolphins, Ravens, Jaguars, Chiefs, Eagles and Buccaneers all have a chance to clinch their respective divisions this weekend.
It’s the time of the year when the market starts to over-inflate teams in must-win scenarios, and it’s usually best to play against these overvalued narratives.
Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 17 NFL games, beginning with the Jets trip to take on the Browns on Thursday Night Football.
My picks this season are 52-32-2 (61.9%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post. Let's get into my NFL Week 17 predictions.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Saturday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 17 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Jets vs. Browns
The Joe Flacco revenge game to close out the Thursday Night Football slate is so perfect. Imagine telling someone in Week 1 that Flacco would be the fourth QB for the Browns to start this season, while Trevor Siemian would be the fourth QB for the Jets.
I don’t have any meaningful analysis or bets for this game, except that the Browns have significantly increased their early down throw rates since Flacco took over and now face an elite Jets secondary that allows very little separation. I’d be shocked if Flacco finished this game without an interception given how much he’s throwing and pushing the ball down the field.
Verdict: Pass
Saturday Night Football
Lions vs. Cowboys
Given the current state of these two defenses, the Dallas offensive supernova at home and Jared Goff playing indoors, it’s not that surprising to see this total at 53.5. It’s the highest total of the entire season if it closes that high.
The pace should be decent if this game remains close, as the Lions and Cowboys both rank inside the top 10 in situation-neutral pace. The problem comes if one team grabs a lead, as Detroit should be able to run the ball on a light Dallas front if ahead and the Cowboys are the third-slowest offense in the NFL when playing from ahead.
Nick Mullens threw four interceptions last week, but when you consider that Minnesota lost Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to injury early in that game and Mullens still managed 401 pass yards, you have to wonder if the Lions defense will actually get any stops here. The Vikings managed 9.3 yards per attempt, 7.6 yards per play and consistently hit explosive plays.
The Lions haven’t been able to stop good offenses all season. If you sort their season by success rate, they had no answer for the Packers (15th) on Thanksgiving. The Vikings (16th) have already been discussed and the Chargers (13th) posted 38 points, while the Seahawks, Ravens and Saints all comfortably moved the ball on this defense for the majority of their games and put up 28+ points.
Detroit is a bottom-five coverage unit and the Cowboys pass rush will be a problem for Goff if Dallas can get ahead. If the total drops to 52, I’ll be betting the over. At the current number, it’s a pass. Too much can go wrong to bet an over 53.5, and the Dallas red zone offense still remains a question mark.
Verdict: Lean Over, Bet at 52
You can bet your favorite Cowboys stars at home in Dallas using PrizePicks DFS app! Sign up with PrizePicks promo code ACTION for a 100% initial deposit match up to $100 for Detroit vs Dallas.
The Passes
Titans vs. Texans
C.J. Stroud is expected to return for the Texans this week, but I’m hesitant to back him as a favorite in a divisional rematch here. It’s clear that the concussion was quite serious after he needed two weeks to clear the protocol. The Texans are playing for their playoff lives and they now don’t have their best wide receiver in Tank Dell. Nico Collins may play, but he is unlikely to be 100%.
It’s really hard to run the ball on this Tennessee front, which means Stroud will be dropping back a ton in this game. The Titans put their best defensive lineman Jeffrey Simmons on IR, so his season is over. Will Levis is expected to practice on Wednesday and make a return for the Titans offense, but the offensive line issues and his inability to avoid sacks is a real red flag for their potential efficiency.
The Texans just beat the Titans two weeks ago in overtime with Case Keenum despite a pick-six because the Titans couldn’t keep Levis upright and Levis couldn’t deliver the ball on time. Levis hasn’t been particularly bad this season overall — he’s 21st of 31 in QB EPA per play.
At this point in his career, he's the ultimate boom or bust. His aDOT is 10.5, which is ridiculously high. He’s throwing it down the field a lot and taking a ton of negative plays otherwise.
Given the uncertainty about the health of the two rookie QBs, it’s hard to get a true power rating on these teams right now.
Verdict: Pass
Rams vs. Giants
The Giants had a pick-six on a wide receiver slip and a gifted fumble from the Eagles to stay competitive in that game they were otherwise dominated on the box score. More on what it means for the Eagles later, but the Giants defense does not match up well with the Rams and Matt Stafford. The Giants had real success blitzing Jalen Hurts on Christmas, but Stafford has crushed defenses who blitz heavily this season.
Stafford has 11 big-time throws, 7.0 yards per attempt and just two turnover-worthy plays. His 80 grade on Pro Football Focus is quite encouraging for his upcoming battle with Wink Martindale’s defense. The Giants offense showed some real life with Tyrod Taylor out there, and I’d be inclined to potentially bet the over if Taylor were starting again. Taylor is a clear upgrade over Tommy DeVito, and that was evident with how well Taylor moved the ball in the second half against Philadelphia. The Giants either scored or produced at least 30 yards on all five second-half possessions.
Until we know more about who will be the Giants' QB, this game is a pass for me.
Verdict: Pass
49ers vs. Commanders
Ron Rivera was noncommittal about who would start for the Commanders in Week 17. There’s no real value in starting longtime journeyman Jacoby Brissett because the franchise needs to evaluate Sam Howell, but it’s quite clear after the last two weeks that this offense operates a whole lot better with Brissett running it.
Of all the quarterbacks that have played in the last two weeks of the NFL, Brissett ranks first in EPA + CPOE composite at 0.383 per play. Baker Mayfield is second at 0.299, a sizable gap. Howell ranks 37th out of 37, considerably worse than even Trevor Siemian. Brissett came in garbage time in both games and that does play a role, but he also took the lead against the Jets and brought them within eight of the Rams.
Much will be made about the 49ers following that loss to Baltimore, but my opinion of them hasn’t changed. The defense is overvalued by the market, the offense remains a nearly unstoppable juggernaut. The 49ers can pick their score offensively here and the Commanders can’t expose the potential weakness of SF along the offensive line.
This is the time to buy 49ers NFC futures at plus money while you still can. With home-field advantage, which they are likely to have, it’s hard to see any of these mediocre NFC defenses (Rams, Cowboys, Eagles, Lions) getting enough stops to beat the 49ers without flukes.
Even against Baltimore, the 49ers averaged 6.3 yards per play.
Verdict: Pass | Bet San Francisco at plus money to win the NFC
Place your favorite futures bets for San Francisco at Fliff! This social sportsbook is available in California and allows you to wager and win real money!
Falcons vs. Bears
The Falcons dominated in the trenches at home against Indianapolis last week but the current iteration of this Atlanta squad is the Charles Barkley “you can’t fool me, I’m familiar with your game” meme. Taylor Heinecke just played one of the best games of his career at home indoors against a soft Gus Bradley defense. Now he goes on the road to Chicago in December with winds forecasted to be 20+ mph. Could Heinecke replicate that great showing against a far superior Bears defense that no one has been able to run on? Maybe.
But buying the Falcons after a win where all of the offensive weapons are firing on all cylinders is a fool's errand that I will not be partaking in.
Since Week 9, these two defenses both rank inside the top six in EPA per play allowed. It’s not a fluke either, as both are top six in success rate allowed, EPA without turnovers and dropback success rate. The key in this game is the weather, and you’d think the Bears have the edge as an outdoor team with a very mobile quarterback who can use his legs to generate offense.
Verdict: Monitor the weather, bet the under if the forecast holds to be this windy but nothing on either side
Raiders vs. Colts
No two teams better encapsulate the week-to-week nature of the NFL than these two teams. The Raiders were shut out three weeks ago against Minnesota. Then they scored 63 on the Chargers. With extra rest, the Raiders completely shut down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and won in KC, 20-14, with their QB not completing a pass in the second half.
Now the Raiders travel to Indianapolis on a short week in an essential elimination game. The Colts have had a bonkers three weeks of their own. Blown out in Cincinnati. Dominate the Steelers at home. Go to Atlanta and get outscored 29-3 to close the game. The key injury to watch here is Colts right tackle Braden Smith. His backup will have little chance of holding up in protection against Maxx Crosby, who could well wreck the Colts offense himself.
Gardner Minshew has been solid from a clean pocket but his play under pressure has led to a ton of turnover-worthy plays.
Indianapolis should have Michael Pittman back and he’s the only true established guy in the receiving room. No defense in the NFL has played better than Antonio Pierce’s Raiders in the last three weeks, but it feels like that means regression is inevitable here.
Fun matchup, but the market seems right to me entirely.
Verdict: Pass
Steelers vs. Seahawks
This game will fly under the radar but it’s one of the highest leverage clashes in the entire NFL Week 17 slate. Seattle and Pittsburgh are both 8-7 and badly need this game to make the playoffs in their respective conferences. Mason Rudolph had an excellent game out of nowhere on Saturday at home against Cincinnati, but how many times have we seen this exact script play out? Jake Browning, Josh Dobbs, Tommy DeVito, Nick Mullens. All of these backup QBs may have their moment to shine, but regression is looming.
The Steelers found a bunch of rushing success against the Bengals and then hit some big chunk plays. Almost nothing was thrown over the middle of the field and I don’t expect Rudolph to successfully use the middle of the field either. The Steelers probably throw a lot of boundary-deep shots up to George Pickens again, but the Seahawks are pretty comfortable defending outside on the perimeter. It’s quarterbacks like Dak Prescott who have found a ton of success using the middle of the field to exploit the Seattle defense and put up a ton of points.
Geno Smith is considerably more adept at using the middle of the field and he’s the exact kind of quarterback you’d expect to exploit the holes in the middle of the Pittsburgh defense. The Seahawks offense remains inconsistent, and I can’t lay 3.5 here, but it’s hard to see this game feature a lot of points. Pittsburgh will have major pass rush edges against the mediocre Seattle tackles and could create a splash play or two to steal this game on the road.
Verdict: Pass
The Leans
Dolphins vs. Ravens
Trying to make the case against the Ravens here is like trying to make the case against the 49ers of past weeks. Baltimore has led every game this season at the 2-minute warning and has had some ridiculously fluky losses in its defeats to Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. We’re not that far away from Baltimore being discussed as one of the all-time great teams. But the fact that those conversations are even being considered means that it’s time to sell Baltimore in an all-time letdown spot.
Every team has a sell point though, and this is the peak of the market on Baltimore. Miami’s defense proved to me last week that it could slow down an elite offense. The Dolphins probably should have given up 27 points to Dallas, but they also made the Cowboys be incredibly methodical and gave away nothing easy. The Dolphins were able to find a real pass rush and consistently hassle Dak Prescott, and it wasn’t just against the backup left tackle.
Miami was +2.5 in Buffalo, +2 in Philadelphia, -1.5 at home to Dallas. The market thinks all four of those teams are roughly even, which I’d say is about fair overall. Is Baltimore really 2.5/3 points better than the rest of the pack besides San Francisco? They are top five in DVOA on offense, defense and special teams, so maybe that is the case. But it’s not like San Francisco didn’t move the ball on Monday, the Niners just turned it over five times.
If the Dolphins are more efficient in plus territory than they were against Dallas, they’ll be live to win this game. The spread should be right around three and the Ravens also have one fewer day of rest to prepare for this.
I bet this at Dolphins +4 and would need +4 to bet it, so +3.5 is a lean for me.
Verdict: Bet Miami +4
Take the Dolphins spread against the Ravens this weekend in Florida using Hard Rock Bet!
Bengals vs. Chiefs
The clock struck midnight on Jake Browning’s Cinderella run as a starter as he regressed back into more of the quarterback we expected him to be in the blowout loss in Pittsburgh. The Bengals are on the road yet again, and while Lou Anarumo has had a ton of success against top quarterbacks in the past, this defense is not close to cutting it. Cincinnati is a bottom-five defense against the run this season.
Kansas City’s dropback offense is an unmitigated disaster, but the matchup favors them. The Chiefs can run the ball on early downs and use their medley of tight ends to exploit the soft middle of the Bengals defense. Travis Kelce hasn’t looked close to his best all season long really, but if there were ever a game for vintage Kelce to show up, it’s this matchup.
Ja’Marr Chase’s status remains uncertain. The market opened at eight and was immediately bet down. If Chase doesn’t play and this line gets below seven, I’ll take a big gulp and look to back KC at home at a deflated number. One key to watch once again — the Bengals have two full extra days of rest heading into this matchup.
Verdict: Lean Kansas City -7, Bet Chiefs at -6.5
Packers vs. Vikings
The Vikings lost T.J. Hockenson for the remainder of the season due to injury and their QB situation is uncertain per Kevin O’Connell. Nick Mullens four-interception day and Joshua Dobbs' total ineffectiveness against the Raiders have left the door open for Jaren Hall to potentially start.
Jordan Addison is also considered as week-to-week with an ankle sprain, which could leave Minnesota without two of its top three receiving options. I’m expecting major regression for the Vikings defense, which has played way above its talent under Brian Flores. We know what the Packers defense is under Joe Barry. They are a bottom-five unit that made life easy for Tommy DeVito, Bryce Young and other lackluster QBs.
This game is indoors as well, and the Packers lack of a defensive pass rush means chances for explosive plays downfield for both offenses. This total is low to me at 46.5, but I’d want Mullens or Dobbs to start in order to bet it.
Verdict: Lean Over 46.5, wait for QB news
NFL Week 17 Picks
Patriots vs. Bills
It’s clear based on the last four weeks that the Patriots are still playing hard for Bill Belichick. The defense is still elite against the run, first in the league by EPA per rush allowed. The Bills have leaned heavily on the run game in the last month to make up for the fact that the pass offense is seriously lacking versatility. It’s been Stefon Diggs or bust and he’s been held below 50 yards in five of the last six games. The only game he went over was against a very poor Philadelphia secondary.
Whether Diggs isn’t healthy, isn’t happy or isn’t connected with Josh Allen, the pass offense around him is extremely fragile and can be slowed down if he’s not very efficient. Allen has used his legs a ton to extend drives and found James Cook out of the backfield to make up for Diggs' lacking production. It will be hard to make that work consistently against this quietly elite Patriots defense that ranks top 10 in yards per drive allowed this season.
The Bills are at home, but they haven’t been reliable all season as a big favorite. There’s too much sloppy play and offensive mistakes. The pressure is all on Buffalo here in the midst of their red-hot winning run, and the Bills are overvalued as a result of the “must-win tax” placed on teams in must-win spots facing teams who are playing for nothing.
It’s still a division game, and the Patriots will keep it close enough to cover the inflated 12-point line.
Verdict: Bet New England +12
Use our live NFL odds page to get the best odds on the Patriots.
Cardinals vs. Eagles
Philadelphia failed to cover the spread for the fifth consecutive week on Christmas in a 33-25 win against the Giants. There were some fluke turnovers that swung in the Giants favor to remain competitive and the Eagles offense moved the ball with relative ease throughout, but problems still exist for the Eagles as a whole. DeVonta Smith commented after the game that the offense still isn’t right and they have two weeks to fix it. The consistent miscues all season have left the door open for inferior teams to hang around with the Eagles. As a result, the Cardinals have some life in this matchup.
Tommy DeVito was entirely ineffective on Monday, but the Eagles defense struggled to stop Tyrod Taylor once he came into the game in the second half. Taylor engineered four full drives and all four managed 30+ yards. There are a ton of holes in the Eagles back seven, especially over the middle, and the Cardinals use the middle of the field better than most offenses.
The Eagles have not been efficient enough at hitting explosive plays like they were last year. The defensive line didn’t generate a single sack last week against the most sacked offense in the NFL and even the run defense numbers have taken a slide backward in the last month. We saw this Cardinals offense go score for score with the 49ers outside of a Kyler Murray pick-six just two weeks ago as a double-digit underdog. They’ll move the ball on Philadelphia once again and stay competitive in this game.
It’s important to note that the Cardinals have an extra day of rest to get ready for this game, and the Eagles still have just two wins by double digits all year long. Philadelphia is a bit inflated as a result of the must-win tax, as well, and I’ll be betting Arizona to cover the spread.
DraftKings had Cardinals +11 up at 11 a.m. on Wednesday morning. I'd also play +10.5.
Verdict: Bet Arizona +11
Saints vs. Buccaneers
There’s no team in this entire weekly column that I’ve bet against more in 2023 than the New Orleans Saints. This feels like the ultimate floor and the desperation spot to back the Saints to stay competitive with the Buccaneers at the peak of their market value. It’s the first time all season I’ve bet New Orleans.
Everyone is writing off the Saints following their uncompetitive loss on Thursday Night Football against the surging Rams. Tampa Bay is now getting buzz as a potential spoiler in the NFC playoffs following wins against the Packers and Jaguars. The Saints could still the division with two wins and help, and they are far from dead in the NFC Wild Card, unless they lose Sunday.
From a buy-low and sell-high perspective, this is the spot of the week. The Saints also have extended rest off the mini-bye, which becomes especially important later in the season. Our Action Network Luck Rankings have the Buccaneers as the second luckiest team in the entire NFL. The Saints are 31st, ahead of only lowly Carolina.
The Tampa Bay win against Jacksonville had more to do with the health and status of Trevor Lawrence than it did the Bucs dominance. Tampa loves to bring pressure and the Saints have a healthy Chris Olave in the pass game to lean on underneath.
Derek Carr has actually been better by yards per attempt when blitzed this year than when not blitzed.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Panthers vs. Jaguars
The Jaguars secondary has fallen off a cliff in the last month, and it’s not clear to me there’s anything that will save it in the final two weeks of the season. Bryce Young had the best game of his young NFL career on Sunday in a near comeback win against the soft Joe Barry Green Bay defense, and now he has a friendly matchup yet again against a defense that failed to contain Jake Browning and Baker Mayfield in the last two weeks.
One week after we saw Mayfield light up the Packers and then light up the Jaguars, Young has the chance to replicate that one-two and turn the tide in the AFC South. The Panthers have played hard and been mostly competitive since they fired Frank Reich, with two three-point losses, a two-point win and a blowout defeat to the Saints that looked much closer in the box score.
Here’s the concern for the Jaguars, who are laying seven somehow. Since Week 13 (Reich’s firing), the Panthers are 24th in offensive EPA per play. Jacksonville is 20th, and Trevor Lawrence hasn’t missed a game. Defensively, the Panthers rank 16th and the Jaguars are 24th.
You can’t just totally throw out priors of course, but we now know that Lawrence has battled a knee, ankle, head and now shoulder injury. He hasn’t been close to his best since the ankle sprain and played his worst game Sunday. Jacksonville is too flawed to be laying seven to a bad but not the worst team in the league Carolina.
DraftKings was still posting Panthers +7 as of 11 a.m. on Wednesday morning. This is a pick as long as we're getting Panthers +7.
Verdict: Bet Carolina +7
Learn everything there is to know about North Carolina sports betting, set to launch in 2024!
Chargers vs. Broncos
The market movement from Denver -6.5 to -7.5 last week is one of the most bizarre I’ve seen all season. The Denver offense was completely and utterly broken with Russell Wilson. They couldn't do anything well except occasionally run it, throw screens and have Wilson throw boundary deep balls to contested receivers. There are no progressions, no pocket awareness and no offensive success. Denver had an incredible run of turnover luck where the defense forced a ton of them to give the offense short fields.
Now that the run is over, we've seen Denver for the below-average team that it is over the past two weeks. The Broncos have benched Wilson in favor of Jarrett Stidham, though, and Denver could absolutely find a dead cat bounce with its offensive scheme here.
Stidham had that incredible game against the 49ers at the end of last season and he's actually capable of using the middle of the field to throw.
The Chargers — clearly inspired to play for the interim coach last week — were power rated as the the second worst team in the NFL prior to their near win against the Bills. The market has overreacted to Wilson's benching and get to three, and now it's time to buy the Broncos at home.
Verdict: Bet Broncos -3 or better
