Just like last season, every week during the 2024 season, I'll be sharing my favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) and my betting card for every Sunday slate. For reference, here are my season-long records in this file.
- 2023: 37-17 (68.5%)
- 2024: 2-1 (66.7%)
- Overall: 39-18 (68.4%)
For my NFL Week 2 predictions, I'm targeting a trio of early afternoon underdogs in the early slate.
Here are my expert NFL picks for Sunday, as well as the latest NFL Week 2 odds.
Stuckey's NFL Picks for Week 2
NFL Pick for Colts vs. Packers: Bet the Underdog
Let's rip the band aid right off and start things off by backing Malik Willis.
This is just an outrageous market adjustment from Jordan Love. I'm lower than the market on the Colts, so I actually projected this spread close to six with both teams at full strength. The lookahead line sat at around -4.5 before Love's injury. Let's split the difference and call it five. That implies an eight point difference (through a couple key numbers, including the almighty 3, all the way to another) between Love and Willis.
I just can't get there. That's a monumental gap and is closer to the difference between Andrew Luck and Scott Tolzien or prime Aaron Rodgers and Tim Boyle. I'm closer to a downgrade of only five or six points.
Is Willis the worst backup of all time? It's certainly in the realm of possibilities, but I wouldn't go that far. Additionally, I wouldn't consider Love among the elite of the elite quarterbacks in the league at this very moment.
Willis does at least have previous game experience. He also is familiar with the Colts defense, having prepared for it twice a year while in Tennessee. Plus, it's not like this Colts defense is difficult to prepare for. Gus Bradley is almost always going to run his static zone looks without much blitzing. Indianapolis also had one of the worst secondaries in the league, even prior to losing its top cornerback Julius Brents to injury, and will also be without starting safety Julian Blackmon. It's also worth noting the Colts could be without three of their top defensive linemen on Sunday:
- DeForest Buckner (DNP on Friday, questionable)
- Kwity Paye (Limited on Friday, questionable)
- Samson Ebukam (IR)
That's not ideal when you have an already vulnerable secondary down a pair of starters. It could also enable Green Bay to lean on the ground game — an area Indianapolis struggled to defend against the Texans, who ran for over 200 yards at a 5.3 yards per carry clip.
Willis will also benefit from a much better situation than he found himself in when he took the field in Tennessee. He can lean on a good offensive line, a superb set of pass catching options and a great play caller.
Lastly, I'm still not fully sold on Anthony Richardson, who still has accuracy issues. He will have some highlight throws and runs each week, but he's still essentially a rookie (five career games) who completed only 9-of-19 passes last week. I also expect improvement from Green Bay's defense in its second game in a completely different scheme under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, especially since they won't have to play on a São Paulo slip-n-slide.
I guess there’s also an outside chance Love plays after being listed as questionable on the Friday injury report. I don’t see that happening, but it’s at least provides a tiny sliver of upside.
Trending: I think the market over-adjusts when a starting quarterback is out more often than not. To wit, backups in their first start as underdog have gone 37-30-2 ATS (55%) over the past four seasons.
NFL Pick for Panthers vs. Chargers: Hold Your Nose & Bet Carolina
Yes, I bet the Panthers again. I have no shame.
Simply put, this is a spot I'll bet an overwhelmingly majority of the time — backing a team coming off of a 35-plus point loss in the NFL.
First, the numbers to back it up:
- Overall 76-45-6 (62.8%) ATS since 2003
- As an underdog: 60-30-5 (66.7%) ATS
- As an underdog of more than four points: 50-18-2 (73.5%)
Why is this the case? For one, the market tends to overreact. Secondly, nobody usually wants to bet a team they just saw get demolished. But remember in the NFL, nobody is usually as good or as bad as they look on their best and worst weeks.
These are still professional athletes that you can expect to show up the following week with a maximum effort after getting embarrassed. A blowout loss also encourages potential positive scheme and roster tweaks, which could also catch their opponent off guard.
I don't have many nice things to say about the Panthers after last week, except that I saw definite improvement along their upgraded offensive line. I was hoping to see some progress with Bryce Young, especially under the tutelage of Dave Canales and a new, more modern offensive scheme. Instead, Young looked helpless from the jump.
That said, it's just one game. Maybe now we'll start to see some of the things on offense that I expected this season.
Bottom line: I can't over-react too much to one game, especially in Week 1 with a new staff. Prior to the season, I projected this line closer to a coin flip. Admittedly, I came into 2024 higher on the Panthers than the market and vice versa with the Chargers. Now, I did downgrade Carolina (which also lost its best defensive lineman to injury) after that performance (and pretty severely for a Week 1 adjustment), but it certainly wasn't six points!
Plus, it's not like the Chargers looked spectacular in their win over the Raiders. They had two scoring drives in the first half that totaled 10 yards and didn't do much outside of a few explosive runs by JK Dobbins. For Week 1, the Los Angeles offense finished with a 37.7% success rate — tied with the Bears, who didn't score an offensive touchdown. For reference, only the Jets had a lower success rate for the season in 2023. The Chargers really just benefited from extreme turnover luck.
Maybe my brain is just scrambled, but I'm backing the home 'dog here in a game where points should come at a premium. Hopefully, this one isn't over as quick as it was last week, leaving me with egg on my face again — but it wouldn't be the first or last time that has happened.
Trending: The 'dogs tend to bark in Week 2 after the market over-reacts to Week 1. Home 'dogs have fared especially well, going 60-45-3 (57%) ATS since 2003, including a 60% cover rate following a loss to open the season.
NFL Pick for Jets vs. Titans: Fade the Jets Again
You know it's bad when backing Will Levis seems like a relief after making cases for Malik Willis and Bryce Young. As usual, it ain't full of roses in here.
On the surface, this is just a horrible spot for the Jets, who will play their second straight road game on a short week in a different time zone after playing in San Francisco on Monday night. Historically, teams have not fared well against the number in this particular scenario, going just 13-20 (39.4%) ATS over the past decade.
To make matters worse, the Jets only had the ball for 21 minutes in Week 1. As a result, their defense could pay the price in Nashville with some early season fatigue. Over the past decade, teams with less than 25 minutes of time of possession in Week 1 have gone just 8-23 SU (26%) and 6-25 ATS (19%) in their Week 2 game. And the Jets are on the extreme end of that data set as they had just 21 minutes with the ball and are now on a short week and on the road again.
That potentially tired unit also looks like it might take an overall step back this season. They're still a top-tier unit and will not look as bad as they did against Kyle Shanahan, who had the Jets' heads spinning like a record in Santa Clara.
However, the defensive line just doesn't pack the same punch after losing Bryce Huff and John Franklin-Myers, and with Haason Reddick sitting out. The Jets were pushed around by the 49ers all night and didn't possess the same caliber of pass rush. I also wouldn't be surprised if the secondary regresses a bit (outside of Sauce Gardner, who I genuinely believe is the best cornerback in the league) from the insane level we saw last year. That can happen more frequently with defenses than offenses on a year-over-year basis.
The Jets offense had their moments, but it's still going to take some time before they get rolling with Aaron Rodgers, a brand new offensive line and a ramping up Mike Williams. There's only so much you can do by throwing left to Garrett Wilson.
I also liked what I saw from the Tennessee defense and new coordinator Dennard Wilson. The upgrades in the secondary look like they will pay dividends and drafting T'Vondre Sweat to pair with Jeffery Simmons looks like a wise move, as does the late trade for Ernest Jones at a position of need. They held the Bears to under 150 yards and without a single offensive touchdown on the day.
Give me the home pup on the bounce back against the road Jets, who find themselves in an early season tricky spot that isn't made any easier with a divisional game on Thursday against the Patriots looming.
Trending: Teams that blew a double-digit lead in Week 1 (like the Titans did) have historically bounced back well in Week 2, going 29-17 SU and 28-17-1 (62.2%) ATS in Week 2 since 1990.
